Is Ma Yun retires a bad news?

Ma Yun states this plan had prepared 10 years: "I and our high level sits 10 years ago, if Alibaba did not have me to should do to if how Alibaba did not have me to should do,ask? I am very proud culture of present processing system, company mixes Alibaba the talent echelon formation with constant in a steady stream, allow me to go away and unapt bring destroy. Allow me to go away and unapt bring destroy..

It is 54 years old of birthday of Ma Yun next week. Quite early, home of course of study of the state-owend enterprise in just be not being mixed is compared.

The Nabier Gates when the Ma Yun two days ago accepts Peng Bo to interview lifts a period of the day from 11 pm to 1 am to say: "I cannot am full of with him forever, but I retire early. But I retire early..

Bill Gates retires formally 2008, in those days Microsoft already 33 years old. To 2014, gai Cicai leaves off his post Microsoft president one duty. To today, people has imagined very hard did not clean out the treasure, life that did not pay treasure, but this company establishs Alibaba to also do not pass gift 19 years up to now, the platform that clean out treasure just spends birthday.

Often hang those who say on the mouth according to Ma Yun, want to become a company of 102 years, alibaba did not go 1/5.

So, is Ma Yun emeritus a what kind of message be?

To Alibaba for company itself, the impact won't be too big.

Alibaba now is China's biggest Internet company, its are in the competitor Beijing of course of study of electric trading company east, spelled great near future to encounter quite big question severally, and the game crisis that gives aid to the these companies, Tecent that with Alibaba all fronts competes encountered arise suddenly.

The last few years, ma Yun has managed come away daily with Alibaba. Turn and appear actively in all sorts of international conferences and commonweal activity, perhaps write shareholder letter to say Alibaba wants to make " the economic system of Internet " , should solve the whole world opportunity of 100 million jobs, service the consumer of 2 billion, create profit for 10 million medium and small businesses.

Of Alibaba specific run, had given Zhang Yong.

In March 2013, alibaba announces Liu Zhaoxi will accept CEO job of Guo Mayun. But successor changed Zhang Yong 2015.

One makes public the quarter of financial data recently, alibaba gains 62 billion yuan of income, achieved 3 years to add fast new record. Recently two years, alibaba has maintained battalion two years to receive growth to be in continuously 50% above. In new money year, growth target of Alibaba has been increased further to 60% .

Double 2017 the media center spot after 11 ends, stagewise does those who sum up a speech to have Zhang Yong only one person. Brief occurrence Ma Yun listens below the stage Zhang Yong makes a speech, did not say any words publicly. A few years before that, ma Yun is the last program of pair of 11 spots.

From already some interior transfer in light of, alibaba transfers from the influence of handler of course of study of father take office relatively smooth. Smooth this comparative in Chinese big company infrequent.

Crucial history node of Alibaba

1999, alibaba holds water. Of the same age in October, alibaba acquires 5 million dollar first-run investment. This investment takes the lead by Gao Cheng, participator still includes venture capital investment of rich Da Yazhou.

2000, alibaba obtains soft silver 20 million dollar invests.

2003, ma Yun sends independent group to be besides Alibaba found clean out treasure.

2004, pay treasure from clean out treasure to tear open piece, do tripartite to pay.

2005, yahoo obtains Alibaba 4 into share, become large stockholder.

2007, alibaba B2B business appears on the market in Hong Kong, appear on the market first days market prise exceeds 200 billion HK dollar. Feburary 2012, alibaba announces to counter-purchase B2B business share, hand in place to retreat city from harbor.

2008, the rudiment of day cat store holds water, 2012 the beginning of the year, alibaba will clean out treasure store incognito day cat.

2011, clean out treasure fractionation, alibaba begins many rounds to recombine. Same year, alibaba did the first double 11.

2013, may, ma Yun holds the position of Alibaba trustee bureau chairman, one duty of CEO by Liu Zhaoxi replace. Same year, dish bird network holds water, distribution content sheds Alibaba.

September 2014, alibaba appears on the market in the US stock.

October 2014, ant gold is taken hold water formally.

In May 2015, zhang Yong replace Alibaba CEO.

In November 2016, the Babaji in A is round big entertainment board piece hold water.

In January 2017, alibaba announces to turn silver-colored peaceful group demesne.

September 2018, ma Yun will announce inheritance plans Alibaba.

Meanwhile, ma Yun retires to still be unscrambled to be a bad news, at least is not a good sign. Resemble " Alibaba: Ma Yun's commerce is Caesarean " (Alibaba: The author Deng of one book of The House That Jack Ma Built) Ken Clark (the Duncan Clark) comment after the message comes out, "No matter he wishs to not be willing, one he is degree of health of economy of Chinese privately owned and distant view symbolizes. No matter he is happy meaning, his emeritus will be unscrambled to be dissatisfaction or be anxious " .

Illicit look forward to is the dominant force of Chinese economy.

Chinese Ministry of finance ever picked PIIE of interpret United States the report 2016 says wisdom library, when year ago 11 months, profit of illicit look forward to amounts to 2.1 trillion RMB, and state-owend enterprise profit is 1.1 trillion RMB only. And the relation as a result of statistical caliber (the private enterprise is not included illicit is manual operated) of finite liability company, the actual profit of illicit look forward to should be 3 times of the state-owend enterprise.

The report of international Monetary Fund also can explain this is nodded. Although be after 2015, the proportion that state-owend enterprise investment holds GDP from about 30% rise 38% , but its capital return rate is however from drop all the way after 2006, to 2017 only 1.9% , far 9.5% under illicit look forward to.

This enough explains the private enterprise still has energy more than the state-owend enterprise up to now, also offerred more obtain employment post. The state-owend enterprise is in hold the industrial assets of 38% to occupy than while, it solved the obtain employment of 14.9% only.

Alibaba is China's biggest privately owned company, also be China is the biggest appear on the market company. Him Ma Yun the speech waited for a lot of years on the screen of airport bookshop: Explain a success, tell do poineering work.

Ma Yun and the history that Alibaba takes all the way are representing that share that economy of the China in 20 years had energy most in the past.

And now, china caught up with privately owned economy fitly the most awkward when dot.

Is Ma Yun retires a bad news?

▲ August 2018, ma Yun represents Alibaba commonweal foundation and foundation of protection of zoology of peach blossom source come to south Africa, the member that protect for make one's rounds of wild animal of 50 a gleam of awards prize

Traditional industry, industry measure is decreasing

According to Chinese country industrial and commercial total bureau the data by last year September, amount of Chinese private enterprise and register capital (gold) occupy score to fasten relatively the corresponding period increased 2012 10.8% with 23.1% , but actually, the phenomenon that the industry splits up is very serious.

By the international that enrol silver the data of statistic of chief economist Ding Anhua is shown one group, be measured the effect of reform by Chinese supply, come at the beginning of 2016 2018 in year, the 11 supply side such as coal mine, black mine mine, coloured mine mine reforms an industry to about 11 thousand companies disappear, the company that becomes near disappears, or is to go bankrupt, or is be bought. Among them the extent with cut measure of company of steely, coal exceeds 50% respectively, 30% .

Is Ma Yun retires a bad news?

During this, number of unit of other industry company rose to make an appointment with 1500, amplitude is about 0.5% .

More than 10 thousand enterprises disappear affected directly above of dimensions of 1-7 month whole nation is versed in this year total of estate company profit. What announce every year according to statistical bureau is current accumulative total is worth computation, total of profit of company of 1-7 month industry reduces about 344 billion yuan compared to the same period this year, among them the profit total accumulative total of the private enterprise reduces three hundred and ninety-four billion six hundred and fifty million yuan. And the corresponding period is the same as a type the profit total of state-owned company is to increase 28.5% , offsetted the profit of entire industry glides a bit part.

Go lever, A low fan, the enterprise obtains capital to become more difficult

Reduce lever to accompany supply side reform is coinstantaneous. The debt of company of Chinese blame banking is led from 2009 (150% the left and right sides) since rise quickly, to the United States has been surmounted when 2015, achieve 255% .

Article of chief economist Peng gives birth to smooth old negotiable securities to ever was commented on to this, although the development phase of every country and system environment are different, debt ratio cannot compare sheer number only, " but income of debt of China of the last few years (GDP) comparing rises quickly, hint our risk is increasing " .

Enrol the statistical data of silver-colored international to show, recently 3 years go in lever reform, what basically suffer an effect still is a private enterprise. Because go,the way with the directest lever is bank systole credit, in capital hasten tight situation falls, enterprise Zhang period be forced to spin, trade the risk increases considerably. Since 2016, state-owned company is receivable Zhang fund is average pay back period drops from 7 days. The private enterprise rises from 1 day.

Meanwhile, the interest expenses of the private enterprise is being increased, expenses of 1-7 month interest rises compared to the same period this year 11.8% , private enterprise of the corresponding period advocate of business Wu income add on average fast have 9.5% only.

Is Ma Yun retires a bad news?

The enterprise is in this year the financing of the stock market also relatively in former years is hard. According to " curiosity daily " not complete count, end this year on September 9, a share 152 enterprises to carry give in inspect of city application, card to be able to pass 80, raise fund the forehead is 103.3 billion yuan about. 2017 the circumstance of annual is 479 application, 380 are passed, raise fund the forehead amounts to 230.1 billion yuan.

Although there still is 3 months time this year, but from appear on the market at present application company number, percent of pass and raise fund backward circumstance of the forehead looks, can judge basically will all-around under last year. And A low confuse what compress card inspect likely still to meet further to pass careful rate. Because be below the circumstance that information of capital market lack, capital shorts, increase appear on the market company measure may cause the capital in the stock market more tend dispersive.

This year on August 22, hand in an odd-numbered days to clinch a deal the forehead is not worth one billion two hundred and fifteen million seven hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and ninety-two yuan (98.3 billion) , this is the first time since January 2016. And American time on August 23, only a company is in Alibaba of the US stock clinch a deal the forehead is 14.05 billion dollar (95.3 billion yuan of) , adjacent hand in place all.

Meanwhile, the enterprise wants the duty more that hand in

The statistical result of straight flush IFind shows, china is not finance kind appear on the market the company is only 2017 profit 2 trillion yuan, occupy about appear on the market entirely 55% of the company, this is the optimal achievement that the last few years comes to.

But the duty fee that pays directly when year company is 2.28 trillion yuan, the cash that the 1.15 times; that is profit of company net profit about pays for employee when year is 2.56 trillion yuan, it is 1.29 times of profit of company net profit about.

If again forth backdate two years, can see 2016, blame finance appeared on the market 2015 corporation tax expends minute of pen is be profit 1.36, the corresponding period of 1.66 times; pays employee cash is profit 1.47, 1.64 times.

Rose on January 1 from next year, duty Wu branch take-overs social security is collected, the business is main will according to employee real wages pays social security, company cost still will raise further.

Additionally one group develops academy dean, economist by Beijing University country the data of statistic of Zhou Jiren place shows business tax loses (include social security) add fast outclass GDP adds fast:

"1995~2012 year it is China highest and crash this paragraph of long time. Our nominal GDP grows 8.6 times, countrywide total wages went up 8.8 times, revenue is swelled 16.7 times, the government goes up except the income beyond taxation 18.8 times. Legal the social security that must make one gold increased 5 risk 28.7 times, gold of land sell one's own things rose 64 times. Gold of land sell one's own things rose 64 times..

The land cost, cost of labour force also is rising

Regard China as one of the largest manufacturing industry base, front of Shenzhen the last few years faces large quantities of enterprises to move the current situation that leave, include among them China be and resurgence. In May 2016, xu Qin of Shenzhen city mayor allows to ever disclosed when " the near future has move of more than 15 thousand company to give Shenzhen.

This is an epitome that the industry rises as a result of land cost and moves warping battalion.

" 2018 market of 40 cities land reports first half of the year " , data shows come of gold of sell one's own things of 40 cities land one thousand and forty-five billion three hundred million yuan, relatively 2017, 2016, the corresponding period rose respectively 2015 14.4% , 53.3% with 127.8% , achieve the history highest.

Release according to Chinese Department of Commerce additionally " investigation of countrywide company load evaluated a report 2017 " , from 7 specific cost burden looks, a few fields that Chinese enterprise reflects current cost burden to weigh are ordinal for labour cost (cost of 61%) , financing (50%) , content spreads cost (the resource element cost such as land of 49%) and gas of water and electricity (48%) .

The research data that if wait for a person to be opposite according to Peng Wensheng,cost of population structure, labor and population bonus do, chinese generator (19-64 year old) / the scale of consumer saw top hind 2015 gradually fall after a rise, population bonus gradually subsidise. China enters less and less person to be engaged in production, consumption the number is higher and higher. Labor cost rose to also become inevitable trend.

This brought more not hopeful future. According to the data of census of mouth of complete 2016 compatriots, because birthrate is reduced continuously, chinese 10-19 year old population is compared 2005 when decreased 36% , before this means the youth that enters the job 10 years next to be able to be compared 10 years little exceed 1/3.

Is Ma Yun retires a bad news?

Consumption glides, market growth foreground is finite

In the data of macroscopical in May economy that publishs this year in national statistic bureau, that month social consumable total volume of retail sales 3.03 trillion yuan, compared to the same period name grows (to did not deduct price element) 8.5% , add fast since achieving nearly 15 years new low.

Social consumable total volume of retail sales is main statistic the individual goes up in the net with the enterprise and the objective commodity below the line is consumed, and meal income. Press classified computation, day is changed, the income of equipment of furniture, communication, oil and meal adds whole of fast prep above average level.

Because consumption is in,the society consumes data to drop greatly may be to the move on the net while, after be delayed easily by the influence of electric business sales promotion, consume, because,may be on the other hand fervent estate. Major customer buys a room to overdraw to did not come 10 years even 30 years cash flows, bear 1 million plan debt, every months still borrow pressure to squeeze the consumptive desire that took them.

Is Ma Yun retires a bad news?

Even if do not buy a house, the dweller of a few areas also cannot keep away from of chummage rise considerably.

The dweller that announces regularly according to Beijing statistic bureau consumes data, come first half of the year from 2013 2018 first half of the year, dweller flower is added in the expenditure of housing fast outclass is other classification, increase compared to the same period first half of the year this year 23.5% . Expenses of spending of average per capita of dweller of town of Beijing of the corresponding period is added fast it is about 7% , food consumption decreased 1.4% , traffic and communication consumption decreased 12.5% .

The company invests the limitation that get to become much external

Consumption, investment and exit, it is 3 when macroeconomics family expenses will analyse an area to run circumstance stand or fall in the economy inside certain period main index, they are called again of total demand 3 drive carriage.

While consumptive demand glides, the company invested to also be restricted by more external.

A report of advisory company Acuris shows, chinese business is overseas 2017 buy amount to be 137.1 billion dollar, decrease compared to the same period 32.8% . China also got be affected apparently to beautiful investment, investment amount dropped from the 46.23 billion dollar 2016 29.4 billion dollar, decrease compared to the same period 57.2% .

Is Ma Yun retires a bad news?

This follows in endowment the form that the whole world buys before the company formed direct contrast.

Invest the limitation with bigger impact external to China, it is this year on Feburary 11, chinese hair changes appoint announce the investment outside the condition sensitive industry list, include industry of city of estate, hotel, shadow, entertainment, sports the club. The enterprise is in no matter these domains are to invest to still pass equity fund directly, want to obtain superintendency branch to approve beforehand.

With 10 thousand like amounting to, once abroad if answer star, Hai Hang also stopped basically today,buy star company. Returning what can obtain foreign currency to invest is not the private enterprise that the state-owend enterprise invests specific industry namely.

Internet company ever was the oldest a dark horse, but poineering cost also is becoming high

2003, clean out the line on treasure, this platform that allows thing of business of the line on anybody modelled today's Alibaba.

But relevant electric business is superintended is lag all the time actually. On the issue that handles fake, consumption, industrial and commercial often have the right that phonate with product guild, but processing criterion often according to hits a patch like all sorts of government measure or the substance below the line the legal clause of basis of retailing shop place.

First law that is aimed at electric business technically " law of electronic business affairs " should remove ability to apply formally on January 1 to next year, had left clean out treasure to establish the past nearly 16 years.

Such superintendency environment hatch gave China current company of the biggest a few privately owned. Be in those who clean out Bao Gang to hold water 2003, the market outside the territory in 2003 appears on the market before company market prise is ranked 10 lis, only Netease is civilian battalion company. Today, the market prise of Alibaba, Tecent exceeded a few China's biggest state-owend enterprises, in mobile, medium oil, medium sea oil.

But poineering cost and risk also are increasing indeed.

2015 around, the country is encouraged double achieve, illicit collect and achieve cast fund to develop, during a calamity is in when be being added, need attracts an enterprise to develop to place. A few areas are development local economy, attract outside investment, the partner that includes the city such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chongqing to join a company to achieving imposes a tax according to the favourable tax rate of 20% .

Begin from last week, bureau of concerned state tax will unite investment 35% of business partner tax rate, include to be opposite toward period the date from of profit fills the message of pay revenue is ceaseless. Standing conference expresses the State Council later, relevant taxation will not go against the river and go to already, will go to often delimit newly with this advancement.

Superintend send more strict, add national banking strategy to father accuse risk, from above to below to go lever, reduce market liquidity, unlike of capital of collect of integral equity investment is so easy in the past. De Qin's data shows, relatively 2015, volume of the capital collect that finish dropped 2017 148.2% .

After capital new rule came on stage this year in April, wait for a requirement to investing tie of limits, lever, information to announce more strict. Clear family data shows, chinese equity invests capital collect amount to be controlled for 380 billion yuan first half of the year this year, glide compared to the same period 55.8% . Superintendency hasten is tightened is one of reasons that form this situation.

The doorsill that a company enters all trades and professions is rising

In May 2016, total bureau of national broadcasting television allotted " the announcement that publishs service government about mobile game " , stipulate game operation needs edition order. Gained edition mark only, game just can go up the line collects fees, can be only otherwise ceaselessly free fair measure.

Small the atelier to ten people, arrive greatly Netease, Tecent such appearing on the market company, the person inside the industry had been used to edition date to examine and approve. Whole China had game of about 9000 mobile phones to obtain edition order 2017.

But began in March from this year, the examination of game edition date stops abruptly, tecent also cannot escape by sheer luck.

Make the same score pair of analysts to state edition date has in Tecent president Liu Chi examine and approve green passageway, predict to restored afresh in September before long, new change came. On August 30, national news publishs arrange to will carry out adjusting control of network game gross, control increases amount of network game online operation newly.

That day A game kind company market prise for a time shrink is close one billion four hundred and ten million and sixty-five thousand four hundred and eight yuan, if be added in US stock and harbor Netease, Tecent accuses, golden hill software, game circle evaporated to make an appointment with 180 billion yuan of market prise overnight.

Suffer game effect, tecent market prise already shrink approach 1.3 trillion HK dollar, those who compare a Bank of China is whole appear on the market market prise is even much.

Game line of business is an epitome that industry of Chinese at present superintends only. An Internet company is become in China, license plate from begin the string on website lane, be in almost segment of business of each your thinkable appears. ICP puts on record, ICP business certificate, network culture business certificate is waited a moment.

And more difficult is, the enterprise took license plate to also may be used without giving thought to, because the explanatory space of license plate itself is larger and larger also.

For instance in April 2014, website of video of requirement of wide report total bureau stops to broadcast " the life explodes greatly " , " lofty and unyielding character virtuous wife " , " investigation of naval a criminal case is in " and " the lawyer is ecru " wait for 4 beautiful theatrical work, did not put forward any getting offline reason.

Later, hold license plate, according to compasses management video website, with abroad synchronism every week of one collect show rhythm to be made stop by wide report total bureau, change volume of whole department theatrical work unified interpreter, send careful, after passing, just be allowed to go up the line is broadcasted.

After drop drop was taking a net to make an appointment with car license plate, want to save the new requirement that city issues later according to each euqally, get offline, seal the car that parks disagreement compasses and driver.

What deal needs to worry is not merely commerce and lawful

This year in May, leave associate the group is old, hold the position of specific duty no longer associate father Liu Chuanzhi gives out a theme to be " the action rises, dare to die is hit win associate honor guards battle " in-house letter, explain " 5G is voting " actual condition and findings, declare he is mixed China communicate for Ren Zhengfei of main author, president, card of Ren Zhengfei force associates to poll and do not have a problem.

Of domain of a technology voting, by dominant of government of enterprise and rather than, associate to did not support direct competitor China for, and cast a partner to be connected high, be by denounce " betray one's country " .

Similar " err thing " , " missay word " the case that causes next big troubles is increasing. The beginning of the year still is called " blast tuyere " direct seeding interlocution is disappearing overnight also is such.

Once went up in small gain, small letter word of active entrepreneur Zhang size is less and less, the thing that can say publicly after all is not much also.

Still accompanying more and more inaccuracy to decide

Achieve by August after casting the message that increase tax to announce, wang Ran of CEO of Yi Kai capital sends small gain to say " the not affirmatory move of policy code is sharper and sharper more and more entrepreneur and investor meet => to transfer asset with all sorts of means abroad " .

Achieve cast add game of duty, China to balk examining and approve is an example. Earlier 2014, when small gain appears on the market, ever was in book of raise capital by floating shares the venture that announces content examine and verify. It also as it happens is caught up with " only network " the action, be shut all sorts of irregularity to violate compasses is of all kinds Zhang date while, still be in in order to fine.

To this year love surprises art when preparation appears on the market, it listed uncertainty of many 100 explanation in book of raise capital by floating shares, for instance:

Information of be enslaved to be enslaved to is announced, love is strange art be in probably violate the ability after compasses to discover he has been violated compasses, because " Chinese jurisprudence is mixed to partial government policy in byelaw, a few clauses that be released not in time or did not release at all, still have date from effectiveness. Still have date from effectiveness..

If an environment is in the position that does not determine highly, group liability can do short-term thing.

Ma Yun announces emeritus plan at that time, no matter how be used on literal " inheritance " explanation, metropolis more of play hope slide.