We often are met daydream, when can you just buy you can handle all ways besides, it where be is OK to where be the unmanned car of free travel? At present people includes normally to its acknowledge the following 3 hypothesis: Above all, drive automatically car (AVs) with present car very picture; Next, people wants preemptive ability to use; Finally, unmanned vehicle can work normally below all sorts of environments. In fact, these 3 hypothesis are wrong. Although today's experimental car is,change his costume or dress by average car, steering wheel can turn by oneself, but of future drive automatically the car does not need steering wheel or footplate at all, and can devise all sorts of appearance and measure.
Consider to make clear, can carry a passenger the 6 cockpit to 8 people are the most effective design, these cockpit are in impossibly also of course can move anyplace, want limit however a geographical range, the urban district ability that only those had built good map beforehand works. They will be similar and existing share a travel mode, as " Robotaxis " in appearing in people to live, consumer uses APP when need can call. As a result of the reason of technology and economy, did not come to the first when what you take to drive automatically car will share a form, and rather than is private have. That is to say, perhaps in those day we also do not need to buy a car to also can enjoy a free travel again.
Current unmanned road-sense is not to the queen's taste, but in 10 years of in the past it had had very great progress. At least present unmanned vehicle can have been in the city with climate condition beautiful, relatively simple setting is normal move, so a lot of company likes to undertake in the phoenix city of Arizona city nobody drive car checks. Cereal song parent company is subordinate drive automatically this model rolls out the Pacifica that car section Waymo also hopes to be able to use Kelaisile in phoenix city this year Robotaxi serves. Be in in the near future inside, robotaxi service promotion comes other city, its enclothe escalate area.
Robotaxis the service drives as nobody car all-pervading is original strategic deploy has a sense extremely, because they need only,work inside location. And completely own unmanned car wants to be able to feel its surroundings in real time and can be made immediately answer, what the cost that its configure sensor often is about to come than car itself is taller. The average utilization rate of car of major illicit home is 5 ％ left and right sides only, see oneself buy than angle from sexual price nobody drive the cost of car is very costly, share Robotaxi however very practical, and cost is very easy call in from inside the service that counts a hour everyday.
Accordingly, economy and practical decided to drive automatically the car must want from share Robotaxis to begin. Perhaps arrived to was controlled 2030, the cost of sensor drops considerably, everybody can be bought those who belong to oneself is automatic drive car. Await people to be able to choose freely in those days, be oneself buy still continue to use share Robotaxis to serve? But it is to the life for the person in the city, robotaxis is sure the meeting is cheaper, more convenient. Current, switzerland combines a bank to had been analysed, take Uber or the charge of other taxi service to be every miles of 2.5 dollars about, the cost of illicit home car is every miles of 1.2 dollars about (fuel, safe, service and other cost are considered inside) . photograph comparing, the cost of Robotaxis can arrive with dropping every miles of 0.7 dollars. Accordingly, if Robotaxis resembles what advertisement publicizes really in that way, a lot of city families may abandon their private car, can save thousands of dollar so every year. Switzerland combines a bank to still be forecasted, when 2035, the person of 80 ％ will use Robotaxis in the city, urban car has gross to also will drop 70 ％ .
Without doubt, still be the car that meeting somebody holds to to want to have his, and can buy drive automatically car. But, the car sum total on prospective path compared with can drop at least now arrange an in part, to 2050 the Robotaxis on the road is mixed private and automatic drive the car takes each half of country. Robotaxis can make the one part that cannot depart in people life, it also will become the organic composition of public traffic, go out for the most part to depend on it soon. Because the illicit home car of need park is less, big land of existing parking lot will be wasted no longer can use at other utility, build more houses for example. Car of no less than does in 20 centuries place in that way, drive automatically car general redefine retail trade, weigh model city, what offer advantage is new-style give a form.
The Strategy Analytics of advisory company expresses 2050, drive automatically inside global limits of car and the shirt-sleeve place generation of taxi service " passenger economy " value 7 trillion dollar is annual. Tycoon of car manufacturer, technology, poineering company has contended for this burgeoning industry in drastically with taxi company. Perfectness car makes car manufacturer machine and supply chain, but what know to sophisticated software is very little. Company of science and technology understands machine study and computer visual sense, but do not know a car to make. And the applied process of taxi company has been installed was in on the mobile phone of millions user, the entrance clearly of the market. In short, the construction that technology and car make board piece mutual collision. This is adumbrative one changes, also mean the collaboration that will bring a series of making that the person is dazzling, buy and various trade, form the allied network that invest to rushing and develops ceaselessly for many times. This kind of tremendous change will change these two industries not only, the others shake also can have more extensive effect to whole society.
Drive automatically the car is had like the smartphone change sexual technology, car of no less than is like world of 20 centuries heavy model, for better for worse, drive automatically the life that the car can change people, job and recreational means. They can reduce way greatly dead number, piece travel time and jockey the field that take up. The Chapman college town of California Ao Lanzhi studies expert Joel Kotkin says, "To whole town planning, drive automatically the car was offerred ' the superexcellent opportunity that solves a lot of problems at the same time ' " . The Justin Erlich of policy department head of Uber says, "If 20 centuries are a car,gifted our independent character, so 21 centuries, drive automatically will gift the freedom that we do not rely on a car " .
The occurrence of the car brought about pollution of traffic accident, air and city to jam wait for a problem. No less, drive automatically what the car causes safe to privacy, network, responsibility and imparity possibly also is new anxious. The social historian Peter Norton of the university says Virginia: "Drive automatically the demon box that the car will open Panduola, the consequence that causes expect to be less than " . It should consider unmanned vehicle to give travel, car to have authority and car to produce the effect that wait to the individual not only, also want to consider more extensive economy, society and culture chain reaction. Drive automatically how will the car transform daily activity? How to weigh model city? Is the rise of 20 centuries car right of 21 centuries do nobody drive what experience does the car have to absorb? Carry away from carriage the horse is presentative change merely, but its should have more far-reaching effect.
Same, to driving automatically the car, besides the requirement that eliminates pair of drivers simply, more far-reaching meaning consists their great majority is the and rather than that share embraces some, originally the mankind from a kind liberate in some equipment come out, no matter be right,the reforming of social natural resources still is pair of individual efficiency rise, even the new conformity to social relations of production, having crucial effect.
- The End-
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