Situation of city of near future egg is summed up
Draw near mid-autumn during, egg price is strong rise, end on September 19, advocate produce a division all valence 4.7 yuan / jin, go up 0.1 yuan / jin; Advocate sell a division all valence 4.84 yuan / jin, go up 0.08 yuan / jin. Today on September 20, countrywide egg price continues strong performance, on north wide 3 sell an area to rise at the same time greatly, produce an area to follow generally go up, take money fast.
In the situation auspicious during, today egg futures however considerably callback! Following plan institute show:
Egg futures 1901 agreement drop considerably
Today besides complete a business transaction period inside 1809 outside continueing to rise, other egg agreement ended successive a few days on sweep situation, reduce considerably. Futures trades prospective value, go to prospective egg price situation have stronger referenced sense, breed door with egg business must vigilant. Leave the Mid-autumn Festival to have only 3 days, there is one every year to drop before the section, prices is so strong this year, can you break the law that comes for years?
Price of the egg after National Day goes situation
Want to analyse the prices after the section, make clear price of egg of Hunan near future is how about above all this is strong. Individual viewpoint: Long-term element (on the low side of amount of livestock on hand) with all sorts of short-term factors collective dominant today of summer go up greatly prices. Among them after short-term factor section will progressively subsidise, cause egg price fall after a rise, and still will act well after long-term element section, restrict egg price drop extent.
1, long-term element: In on the low side of laying hen amount of livestock on hand, the egg supplies insecurity
Go from the egg price of Shandong only situation can see be in currently laying hen amount of livestock on hand is apparent on the low side. With its he produces an area to basically rely on export to differ, chicken of Shandong since egg breeds big province, it is big province of population and economy, the egg is given priority to with sale in domestic market. The egg chicken of Shandong breeds quantity and Shanxi to be about the same, but 4 times population is Shanxi, economic gross is Shanxi adds northeast 3 provinces the sum, shanxi of egg demand tower above a few class. Shandong egg price is very accordingly sensitive, often go up urgently to drop urgently, become one of vane of countrywide egg price.
Shandong since egg advocate produce a division, it is advocate sell a division, give priority to for a long time with sale in domestic market, export and outside buy an amount lesser, this one characteristic makes Shandong egg price factitious hype space is little, more supply and demand of market of can true reaction. Price of egg of Shandong of these two months pounds 5 yuan a few times / jin close greatly, if not be amount of livestock on hand low, the egg supplies existence bigger gap, happen far from possibly.
2, all sorts of short-term factor overlay
If be amount of livestock on hand only low, egg price is unapt also go up so tall, otherwise price of 6-7 month egg won't be defeated 3, amount of amount of livestock on hand should be smaller first half of the year. High temperature reduction of output, festal demand, fall into disuse before old chicken section, swine fever, egg business fears tall, typhoon waiting a moment, these short-term factor overlay, push further tall egg price. For instance, in this strong typhoon " Shan Zhu " before landing, egg price has been in perch, guangdong egg business slips before afraid section, common fear tall, dare not order goods more, and southern and vegetable price rises greatly after the typhoon, stimulate egg consumption further, caused Dongguan market these days serious be in short supply.
After National Day, these short-term factors will gradually subsidise, plus area egg business is sold to have a holiday during National Day, whole industry catenary lasted moving pattern will end the long 0 inventory of two months, egg price maintains perch hard.
Breed nevertheless door also need not be anxious, this year full a summer, of egg price tall, the length of duration, did not see for years, amount of this specification amount of livestock on hand is so small that amount of this specification amount of livestock on hand exceed anticipate, analyse before the author really too pessimistic. The refreshment of amount of livestock on hand needs time, do not accomplish in one move, this will be great of price of the egg after controlling a part drop extent.
As time elapse, amount of livestock on hand will be slow grow, lasted to now in June from last year, breed door carried higher profit margin, this stimulates filling column necessarily, will arrive this year in November accordingly next year first half of the year, egg price has the risk with delay inferior take care. The author is right second half of the year, especially next year the prices first half of the year still not dare too hopeful. Of course, if inflation, swine fever, environmental protection continue to worsen, prices of extremely possible change goes situation, aid the price that push an egg to rise.
Prices of futures of near future egg is analysed
Ever suggested investor is not chased after easily in author literary works the day before yesterday much, can try headroom instead, empty today sheet should gain. How do 01 contract take future, whether with one action drops broken 3900, achieve agreement even new low?
Current dish of face agio is bigger, 3900 around it is to have what prop up certainly, once merchandise on hand drops to anticipate not as good as, 01 rebound likely still. Because this author suggests, continue to be treated with nominal train of thought, but 3900 around be necessary to decrease a storehouse, lock up calm share profit ahead of schedule, odd sky sheet stops move below caustic continue hold.
How to go as to 01 agreement future, very old rate depends on after the section drop. If drop after the section,reach 3.5 yuan / jin around, restore as amount of livestock on hand stage by stage, supply of 11-12 month egg still will grow, so 01 agreement have drop broken 3800, achieve agreement even new low the likelihood that continues to drop greatly.
If extent drops after the section finite, in 3.8-4 yuan around, amount of demonstrative amount of livestock on hand is so small that amount of demonstrative amount of livestock on hand exceed anticipate, although 10-12 month restores stage by stage, but later period still has Spring Festival consumption, egg price has prop up certainly, so tremendous agio will restrain prices to drop from beginning to end space, 01 later period relapse probably between 3800-4000 concussion.
The place on put together is narrated, 01 agreement are short-term had entered drop passageway, but empty sheet still gets consolidate step by step, cannot weigh a storehouse, cannot have an insatiable desire for too, prevent prices to relapse.
Above is discussed and suggest to represent point of view of egg gentleman individual only, offer reference only, cannot regard investment as the basis, if produce loss accordingly, egg gentleman is not in charge of without exception.
(be over) egg gentleman Yao Wei is late on September 20, 2018
