American energy crisis caused economic crisis 1978, 1988 the United States store borrow the crisis to cause serious inflation, Tai Zhu devalued 1998 caused Asian banking crisis, 2008 the United States second borrow cause global banking crisis, rising 2018 market debt is collected 3 kill. Why every other does crisis of 10 annuity be in harmony come sadly? Why from 1978 later, does a particular year of economic crisis fall in mantissa 8 on?
Carl Marx on May 5, 1818 - on March 14, 1883
01To the research of economic crisis, it is economist people study a target mainly. In the treatise of numerous economist, the dissection of Marx is most incisive, he thinks:
1, since capitalism produces means establishment, in the alternant periodic motion that the capitalist economy is in a kind of go round and round, prosperity and decline. Economic crisis is a kind of seasonal economy phenomenon.
2, the crisis that the essence of capitalist economy crisis is overproduction, economic crisis is periodic fulminant corporeal foundation is fixed capital is newer. The time that capital invests although morning and evening each different, but the start that the crisis often is extensive investment.
3, the germ of capitalist economy crisis depends on capitalist fundamental contradiction, produce the contradiction between socialization and capitalist private ownership namely. Capitalist fundamental contradiction behaves what produce for capitalist enterprise interior to constituent sex and whole society produce the contradiction of the anarchy above all.
Alfred Marshall 1842, 1924
What compare Marx is as dry as a chip discuss, of Alfred Marshall state very figure, he published 1879 " economics principle " in such elaborating:
1, when the price rises likely, people lends money hastily and scare buying article, can drive prices to rise then, commerce appears expand, operator also can become harum-scarum and prodigal.
2, the capital that manages wins get one's own back to compare actual borrow through borrow capital is even little, and the everybody that themselves becomes rich sacrificed namely social interest.
3, subsequently, when credit wave motion appears, the price also begins to glide, at this moment everybody is wanting to sell goods and be held have a money. Because relative to at commodity character, monetary value is increasing quickly, this can accelerate the rate that credit drops again.
4, drop of credit further can bring about the systole with credit more serious itself, then, because the price had been entered,drop passageway, in long-term inside can continue drop.
Although means of afore-mentioned two kinds of expression are different, but its are same constitutionally, namely: Supply side and demand carry unbalance.
Kelimente Zhugela 1819 - 1905
Since these theory can explain capitalism comes out all financial crises. Capitalist system is from 18 centuries since western country establish to 2001, had erupted 45 times large-scale financial crisis. American economist made an appointment with Sefu Jiqin to discovered 3-4 1923 year Kelimente Zhugela was in doctor of short period small crisis, France, economist to discovered market economy is existing 1862. But, without one exception, their theory cannot the explanation: Why this world since 1978, every other 10 years, and can you erupt for a particular year of 8 in mantissa the crisis?
02To the happening of economic crisis, academia has two kinds of controversies; It is be a watch with Keynesia " demand inadequacy is talked " , namely: The occurrence of economic crisis is social demand inadequacy, want a government to publish exciting policy to be able to resolve the crisis only. 2 be be a delegate with Friedman " monetary stimulation is talked " , namely: Because the money supplies,the occurrence of economic crisis is unbalance, want a government to turn on the water in the money when the crisis only went, do not intervene with administration the market.
Mierdu Fulideman 1912 - 2006
When capitalist country faces the crisis, or is 2 choose the use of one these two methods, or is the use of 2 syncretic. Famouser case has, the Luo Sifu when facing great 1929 depression is new politics it is Keynesia creed substantially, money of the Bai Nake when facing big 2008 crisis is loose it is Friedman creed. China is in answer 2008 the crisis from time to tome " 2 syncretic " shadow.
Be in current world, compare Yukaiensi, friedman force is larger. The reason is not comparing Keynesia at him brillant how many, tell objectively, friedman creed and Keynesia creed are the two sides of a mirror, without what actor whoes slightly. Friedman is opposite disgraced impact is bigger, the demand that agreed with two respects discusses in Yujili:
It is capitalist free system; Friedman published 1962 " capitalism and freedom " in, advocate the role the government the smallest change run in order to allow free market, preserve politics and social freedom with this. His political philosophy emphasizes the good point of free market economy, oppose governmental intervention. His theory became one of main economy basises of freewill creed, and begin American Reagan and the economic policy of a lot of other countries to taking the place of 1980 have great effect.
2 it is beautiful couplet store and even strategic demand of the United States. The United States from 1973 lay mines of tear to shreds pauses after silvan agreement, evolve by a manufacturing industry big country stage by stage for financial big country, this means them to produce money no longer, rely on loot however money comes his country get along. The dollar is the mower of fortune of its loot whole world, be this, established global economy 10 years one metempsychosis, and the crisis happens at mantissa to be a particular year of 8.
031973, american tear to shreds lay mines pauses silvan agreement, the dollar is issued be manacled no longer by gold, this meant the times that the money issues for anchor with gold to end, american government wants to imprint how many dollar can imprint how many. They relied on powerful martial actual strength to kidnap crude oil and major heavy goods, let heavy goods can use dollar close an account only, such whole worlds are forced to continue to use a dollar, this uses dollar loot for the United States fortune offerred his country to facilitate.
If say to erupted after 1973 1978,energy crisis has random sex, but the economic crisis at the back of its has the law very, come 10 of extraordinary level years, and all of one suit erupts in mantissa to be a particular year of 8. All these, bury in the crisis 1978 played a hint foreshadowing later developments in a story.
Marx has said, the time that capital invests although morning and evening each different, but the start that the crisis often is extensive investment. And investment sex is periodic facilities of about 10 years of one metempsychosis, production changes cycle also is 10 years, the United States also needs every other 10 years marry again crisis, this ability forms the old structure of current world economy.
When facing energy crisis 1978, the United States is open the dollar appreciates periodic, thorn defeated the Latin America that depends on dollar debt badly to expand economy, went to the United States completely almost from the capital of Latin America evacuate, go chasing after the 3 big city that hold the United States in both hands (debt city, period city, stock market) , brought city of the first after dollar and gold unhook big ox to the United States, make full basin of American earn earthen bowl full. But American was not satisfied at this point, take advantage of a favorable situation however the money that taking gain, return Latin America to buy those high grade property that already dropped into floor price afresh.
Faced 1988 store when borrowing the crisis, the United States 1 year in add ceased 11 times, thorn defeated the bubble of Japanese economy, pass what sign beforehand " square agreement " , got the money that is equivalent to 10 years of Gross National Product of Japanese from Japan. Japanese estate and stock market also appear collapse dish, inflict heavy losses on Japanese economy, subsequently Japan is immersed in the depression that is as long as more than 10 years.
The United States went 1998 " old round of extensive investment " end, economy rises lack of power. Across, economy achieved the nation such as Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore 10% right-and-left high speed grow, attracted many international capital to flow into South Asia area, external debt dimensions rises considerably. Then American old tactics repeats, accelerate a dollar to appreciate, international capital chooses to withdraw southeast Asia, go chasing after the 3 big city that hold the United States in both hands (debt city, period city, stock market) , brought city of the 2nd big ox to the United States.
The United States played with fire 2008 inadvertent, let oneself appear second borrow the crisis. Their settlement method is very overbearing, direct open imprints bank note machine, presswork wildly dollar, will endanger impute to whole world. Economy of result United States restored vitality very quickly, each economic norms exceeded the high point when 2008. Watch his country instead, especially country of a few rising markets, had not gone from the crisis shadow 2008.
The United States went again 2018 " old round of extensive investment " end, this he goes up through pushing occurrence inflation of crude oil production whole world, of own be perfectly justifiable add breath, and other country increases order breath, cause capital considerably circumfluence United States, other country secretly complain of suffering. Country of a lot of rising markets appeared debt is collected 3 kill, china also got pound, the stock market pays a copy all over the world. Across, american economic norms is more and more healthy, what American stock market also appeared more than 10 years is super big ox city.
04This shows, lay mines of American tear to shreds paused 1973 when silvan agreement, opened " Panduola's box " , evermore economy crisis can have 10 years of of the rule one metempsychosis very much, than before economic crisis has the law more. 1978 is 1973 later the first crisis of the United States, the time that this the crisis erupts, established later ages mantissa to be a particular year of 8 directly too won't smooth. Want to defeat solution this demon cuss, be afraid after having RMB internationalization only with dollar stand up to sb as an equal, otherwise, human society is really " eternally is like a night " ; Cheer, china!
