No matter you are tycoon or pauper, always want and bank contact with. Deposit, loan, buy conduct financial transactions, money comes money goes to bank of metropolis flow direction.
Everybody has curiosity to pass: How many money does the bank have after all?
According to Chinese people bank newest the data that publish shows, the asset that income and expenses of credit of RMB of orgnaization of the finance end April 2018 expresses just exceeds 200 trillion yuan to close greatly.
Bank hand holds 200 trillion asset, almost administer is worn the fortune of our everybody. In case this 200 trillion have what a sign of disturbance or trouble, nature also can affect the money bag of our everybody.
And at present, this 200 trillion asset is receiving massive trial.
Fluidity the Incantation of the Golden hoop on May 25, the silver-colored meeting that keep watch releases China formally " risk of commercial bank liquidity runs way " , to the bank 200 trillion yuan of asset wear the Incantation of the Golden hoop.
Say simply, it is to avoid risk of bank occurrence liquidity, insufficient money is used and affect normal business to begin to prevent a bank to appear namely.
Purpose of administrative measure harangue has only, it is to tell a bank a word:
Fluidity is very important, fluidity is very important, fluidity is very important.
To let a bank can remember this word, administrative measure threw away one pile fluidity to superintend index, include fluidity scale, fluidity to enclothe rate, fluidity to match rate, fluidity to enclothe rate and high grade fluidity to be led amply.
These professional term look be like very lofty on, but the purpose also has only: Undertake to bank assets through all sorts of index grade differentiates, will determine the liquidity risk of the bank with this.
How that delimits classify? Understand very easily also actually: The capital order and degree with longer time is higher, liquidity risk is less; The capital rank with shorter term is lower, liquidity risk is bigger.
Everybody wants to be able to understand, time length affects the stability of capital, resemble remaining sum treasure all sorts of limit are same, did not spin namely the deadline of capital pass in and out, maintain the stability of fluidity.
Had the index that measures liquidity risk, superintendency nature can have particular demand to bank liquidity risk.
Differ according to index, the bank achieves overall demand the latest before 2020.
The bank shrinks watch times
Now, how many bank can reach liquidity level?
According to day wind academy calculate, put in the possibility of the half at least, make the requirement that most bank cannot reach bank liquidity level.
Short time rectifies and reform difficulty too big, the problem of the bank compares an imagination in much more serious. But new rule is already formal be born, do not amount to mark bank to escape hard still finally the destiny that rectify and reform.
Place before the bank to have two ways only: A road is to increase deposit to satisfy liquidity requirement; Another road is cut borrow money external investment, reduce liquidity demand.
To the bank, raising deposit is best choice undoubtedly, but feasibility condition is very hard however.
End Mom data shows: Countrywide dweller deposit fell greatly this year in April 1.32 trillion yuan, for historical sheet the month is the biggest fall.
But begin from 2010, dweller deposit increment drops gradually. Be in even increase rate of saving of deposit of dweller of the end of the year was 2017 negative, of each deposit remaining sum add compared to the same period fast fell the lowermost level since 1979.
Individual deposit deposit falls more breathtaking, the dweller's savings ratio by 2010 16% drop 7.7% 2017. This year first quarter, 4 big in mixing endowment the deposit deposit remaining sum in bank savings of individual of national large bank appeared to enjoy growth.
Very apparent, bank deposit strides negative growth times, want to rely on to pull deposit to add high grade liquidity, too difficult to the bank.
This also is meant, the bank can choose systole only this road, state professionally even if: Shrink watch.
In fact, the bank shrinks the watch has begun. This year first quarter, travel of Home Zhang harbor, medium the letter bank, Guiyang bank, bank that enrol business, Pu Fayin goes 5 banks shrink actively watch, asset dimensions is aggregate and cut amount to one hundred and eleven billion two hundred and forty-four million yuan.
What is to shrink express? Will tell with become known word, cut business namely.
Make an example, a bank has a room to shift business originally, borrow go out a lot of money, do not have method to achieve liquidity requirement, one gnash one's teeth borrows the room business gives stopped, reduced fluidity pressure naturally.
According to data statistic discovery, this year first quarter, 26 appear on the market bank assets is added fast continue low.
Asset is added fast go low continuously, the collective trend of small bank in becoming share-holding system bank and city commercial firm to wait, more banks also are shrinking the brim of the watch explores.
Asset the storm and stress
The bank shrinks the watch is not a bagatelle.
October 2017, beautiful couplet of American Central Bank store announce to enter shrink the cycle of the watch.
Beautiful couplet store shrink the watch is meant should call in money, the bank wants contractive battle line.
Beautiful couplet store had undertaken 6 times shrinking expressing on the history, the majority draws back the watch causes huge impact to economy, still caused the economic great depression 1929 among them.
Why to shrink is the impact of the watch so big? The economy of a country, cannot leave a bank, cannot leave credit, also cannot leave money, if the bank is contractive battlefront, consequence cans be imagined.
With respect to the bank that takes China, 200 trillion yuan of asset are loan, investment almost the asset related these and economic activity.
Once the bank is large-scale,shrink watch, it is Qian Shaoqian's expensive issue no longer, however money disappeared did not have.
This is just like give aid and support needs when be terminally ill, hematic little blood is expensive still can think way, but if do not have blood, that can wait dead only.
Everybody should ask for certain: Why to superintend should force the bank on shrink express this road?
The reason has been told a lot of times actually, there is the United States to add outside there is debt crisis inside breath, all financial crises are liquidity crisis, if not in advance is on guard liquidity risk, regular finally meeting dies at liquidity crisis.
From another angle for, it is OK to adopt fluidity new rule nick finance orgnaization " capital idling " game, force a bank to return to the source business that put and shifts, let money flow to entity thereby.
Two kill photograph authority to take its light, of at present shrink watch total have an easy time is in the future cruel kill.
So, is the storm and stress of 200 trillion asset opposite the bank what do we have to affect again?
1, fluidity is very important, fluidity is very important, fluidity is very important.
Do not regard this word as fun, if the bank shrinks continuously,express, when you need loan to spend money, you can discover the bank does not have loan specified amount to spend you at all.
Especially present loan basically is the room is borrowed give priority to, if superintend,want to give hypostatic economy finite resource priority assignment, the room borrows the target that can become a run on a bank be persistented.
2, aggravate of asset value wave motion, investment risk rises.
The bank shrinks the watch means a large number of capital to pull out, and closely related asset value and capacity of capital put oneself in another's position. When capacity of capital put oneself in another's position can't support asset value, so asset value can steep fall.
Since this year, debt city explodes ceaselessly thunder is apparent example, the stock market also is same, steep fall easily.
3, in small bank day is sadder and sadder.
Fluidity new rule encourages a bank to return to a tradition to put on the whole shift business, raise deposit to occupy compare than be being occupied with loan.
Compare big bank, small bank pulls deposit to do not have an advantage in, prop up without a large number of deposit, loan nature does not have an advantage more.
Below this kind of circumstance, everybody can see, violent wind of interest rate of structural sex saving rises since this year, this is medium undoubtedly of small bank help one of straw.
The problem is to pass high interest to pull store, inevitable meeting pushs tall loan interest rate, otherwise interest rate is hanged, the bank can suffer loss only.
Accordingly, high interest is pulled store cannot last apparently, small bank is being superintended in and dimension difficult steps forward under the converging attack of big bank.
A few orgnaizations is not silver that in passing, small bank give sb a shot in the arm survives, for instance risk of a few small fiducial small fund is increased, may die yearningly at any time.
Additional, want to enter the youth that the bank works or has worked in the bank, you must consider well, the day that the bank is lying to earn money nowadays had gone, it is golden rice bowl no longer, on the road that bank tide cutting down the member of persons employed is coming to.
