On August 7, the Beginning of Autumn, industry of automobile of new energy resources also was entered eventful autumn.
This month has incident of on fire of car of new energy resources 8 cases to happen at least, and " electric car surveys the home " statistic already had on fire of relatively affirmatory car of new energy resources 39 cases this year incident, begin incessant Yu Er to the doubt of industry technology course. One of focuses of doubt are the promotion target of density of dynamical cell energy, especially the sword points to battery of 3 yuan of lithium, batteries industry was like motivation to also encounter a typhoon.
Market respect, although continuance is inertial forward, but the change of structural sex is occurring stealthily -- in August, battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron realizes installation amount 1.48GWh, occupy than from last month 27.87% increase to 35.09% .
Group of model of lithium of phosphoric acid iron
1. "Turning over fall to grow " be not rational market hard emersion
August, installation amount of cell of power of car of new energy resources realizes 4.22GWh, relatively grew 14.18% in July, amplitude drops somewhat; Grow 43.29% compared to the same period, relatively before two months pick up somewhat.
Accumulative total of before 8 months, 23.5GWh of installation amount of domestic power cell, grow 92.47% compared to the same period.
Go from monthly market situation look, the diploid class of before this year 5 months compared to the same period amplitude already showed no longer, the fall off of allowance, let this fretted market in a way restore a few reason eventually.
Performance of dynamical cell market and truckload market be closely bound up: Market of car of new this year energy resources lasts stagnant, special car industry has difficulty walking, by still calculate one branch with the car alone beautiful, even is dynamical cell industry is solid " fort " .
However, the market of car of new energy resources that relies on drive of bonus of operation market, license plate touchs gradually the ceiling, the actual demand that consumes end has not form dimensions. Will for a long time look, till fall off of allowance of car of new energy resources is exited, the industry will change the market to competition by allowance dominant, product function place is restricted, actual spending market fears be being amounted to hard temporarily anticipate, be sure to make dynamical cell industry tend reason develops.
Look from model angle, new August energy resources takes the installation amount that uses a car than going up the month grew 15.38% , the installation amount that restricts 3GWh still is the biggest board piece the market. 365.4MWh of installation amount of batteries of pure dynamoelectric and special vehicle, relatively on the month decreases 14.81% , batteries outfit machine was down be a burden on in August. Machine of outfit of batteries of car of new energy resources rushed at high speed in May tall, dropped abruptly in June, continued in July low after confusing, turned around eventually in August up, obtain of 28.28% growing, installation amount 847.4MWh.
But the outfit machine of passenger car of new in August energy resources compared to the same period last year still drop, among them installation amount of pure electric passenger car dropped compared to the same period 22.14% , insert mixed passenger car installation amount to drop 54.48% . Industry of car of new energy resources is to get subsidy new politics influence huge board piece, be especially typical " policy city " , the abidance of the market is low confuse the scene bearing that causes entire industry chain to drop.
The installation amount of each model inside year sees accumulative total, before 8 months are pure dynamoelectric take chance of outfit of the accumulative total that use a car 12.75GWh, occupy than 54.24% , grow 106.15% compared to the same period; Accumulative total of pure electric passenger car installs machine 6.95GWh, grow 113.5% compared to the same period; Insert mix install machine 1.87GWh by the accumulative total that use a car, occupy than 7.97% , grow 122.91% compared to the same period; Accumulative total of pure dynamoelectric and special vehicle installs machine 1.74GWh, occupy than 7.39% , compared to the same period small add 2.88% ; Insert mix passenger car installation amount to have 0.197GWh only, it is exclusive one drops compared to the same period board piece, fall 19.37% .
Share of market of battery of lithium of iron of 2. phosphoric acid continues to attack
Look from the become divided of cell type, market of battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron continues to attack.
August, battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron realizes installation amount 1.48GWh, relatively grew 43.79% in July, the proportion in overall shipment volume also from last month 27.87% increase to 35.09% ; And 2.667GWh of installation amount of battery of 3 yuan of lithium, specific gravity from last month 70.37% drop 63.2% , amplitude also has 2.54% only.
Those who drive installation amount of battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron to grow continuously basically is pure dynamoelectric multiply with the car.
August, pure dynamoelectric although have 520.1MWh only,take installation amount of battery of lithium of iron of the phosphoric acid that use a car, but grow 96.2% considerably than last month, and battery of 3 yuan of lithium is in pure dynamoelectric have 4.38% only by the outfit machine amplitude in using a car, installation amount 2.14GWh, still be main body.
Besides pure dynamoelectric multiply with the car, battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron was in August other each car template piece outfit machine also shows the sign that rise: Implementation of pure electric passenger car installs machine 805.59MWh, amplitude 29.92% , pure dynamoelectric and special vehicle installs machine 149.39MWh, amplitude 6.64% , insert mix a passenger car to install machine 6.34MWh, it is last month 0.
Be compared and character, battery of 3 yuan of lithium decreases in pure dynamoelectric and special vehicle 28.71% , installation amount has 179.57MWh only; In pure electric passenger car installation amount is 0. Battery of 3 yuan of lithium is being inserted mix also be in by the outfit machine in using a car growth, basically suffer insert mix by use car board piece grow continuously drive, in August this board piece installation amount grew 19.15% , achieve 348.25MWh.
Accumulative total of before this year 8 months, accumulative total of battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron installs machine 8.8GWh, accumulative total of battery of 3 yuan of lithium realizes outfit machine 14.11GWh, in accumulative total the proportion in total installation amount is respectively 37.46% with 60.03% , because battery of 3 yuan of lithium suffers pure electric car to multiply what grow with car market to pull move, still be type of aircraft of the biggest outfit.
Passenger car of unify of lithium of iron of 3. phosphoric acid holds chance the world, multiplying with the car special vehicle domain also is in take cities and seize territory
Battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron is in changeover and hind city still is valued, have so a few reason:
The first it is hair of frequency of incident of on fire of latter and electric car, be shown density of energy of as blind as battery of 3 yuan of lithium promotion is relevant, even course of technology of batteries of 3 yuan of material also gets dispute fully.
According to national program, 2020, density of energy of monomer of cell of lithium ion power should achieve 300wh/kg, strive for achieve 350Wh/kg. What this one target points to is the batteries of 3 yuan of material of tall nickel system. Tall nickel in 3 yuan of material, the content of nickel is higher, the energy density of batteries monomer is bigger, for instance the 811 batteries on blast tuyere. But, energy density is opposite high too of batteries model group fight brace up, fight concussion, fight expand, the function such as insulation heat insolation also raised taller requirement, but some doubt are returned inside current technical job.
The 2nd it is density of energy of battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron already promoted to allowance limits in.
The level that at present lithium of phosphoric acid iron has reached 3 yuan of NCM523 into troop capabilities density (the density of NCM523 batteries energy of the mainstream is 160 ～ 200Wh/kg) , the battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron of Xuan Gaoke and Biyadi is in the country this one level, and price advantage and systematic stability more actor. Actually, at present the density of energy of battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron of the form a complete set on the market all can achieve the technical doorsill requirement of allowance.
The 3rd it is allowance after exiting, the price mechanism of the market will make apt of car look forward to select battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron. Allowance fall off anticipates below, the price advantage of battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron and raw material supply low risk sex, more conduce to alleviate truckload the cost pressure of the factory, inevitable meeting makes the first choice of car look forward to.
From the batteries of before this year 8 months outfit chance construction looks, subsidy is new politics after carrying out, multiply in new energy resources with car and pure dynamoelectric and special vehicle two board piece, the embarking proportion of battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron is rising stage by stage, in special vehicle especially apparent: Still do not have fall off in allowance March, the embarking quantity of battery of 3 yuan of lithium is occupied than be as high as 95% , arrived this one proportion had 49% only August, and the proportion of battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron was achieved 41% .
See passenger car of new energy resources again board piece. Although battery of 3 yuan of lithium applied lift a ban in the passenger car 2017, but the market is done not have immediately and move, of 90% is battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron in installation amount of batteries of car of new 2017 energy resources, battery of 3 yuan of lithium is occupied than be only 0.21% , there just also was the installation amount of trifling 7.81MWh July this year. The reason is the stability of battery of 3 yuan of lithium and security, the car company that lets must pay close attention to group passenger safety somewhat dread.
Since 2018, policy of high energy density is oriented below, the market share of battery of 3 yuan of lithium is climbed successively litre, but in be versed in before believing what the ministry releases 8 batches recommend catalog, all do not see the figure of passenger car of battery of 3 yuan of lithium. The 8th batch in recommending catalog car model, the systematic energy density of battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron is in of 120Wh/kg above occupy than amounting to 98% , suffer allowance to drive, the passenger car of prep above 140Wh/kg is compared with occupying 70% become taste the mainstream newly.
End distribute news dispatches, fair the 9th batch when show in recommending catalog, go up passenger car of new energy resources of a list of names posted up 118, the passenger car that carries 3 yuan of battery also has 1 only, and of battery of lithium of iron of embarking phosphoric acid have 101.
Growth of downstream and two-way pressure will evaporate on 4. most small young company
Study the data of exposure according to Zhen Li, shared factory of core of 54 home appliance to realize effective outfit machine to supply in August, than going up the month became much 6. Have company of pool of 7 home appliance among them be in for goods in 100MWh above, of 10-100MWh have 17, additionally 30 supply under 10MWh.
Volume of shipment of peaceful heart times is highest, 1.4GWh, but decreased than last month 1.29% , row in the 2nd Biyadi shipment volume rose 34.29% considerably however, shipment 1.18GWh, thousand watt-hour echelon formation was entered on real significance. Accordingly, the market share of peaceful heart times from on of the month 40.81% decrease 35.28% , market share of Biyadi grew 4 percent. The accumulative total shipment of before Ning Deshi is acting 8 months is measured, the half of country that takes amount of total shipment of the corresponding period -- 40.1% , biyadi is occupied 23.1% , "Shuang Xiong " together, take the below 6 markets into how.
The product type respect of the enterprise, TOP10 offers goods company in, battery of lithium of iron of phosphoric acid of peaceful heart times August shipment 520.4MWh, 968.39MWh of shipment of battery of 3 yuan of lithium, 3 yuan are in the majority; Shipment of battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron measures Biyadi times of Ningde of summary prep above, for 539.01MWh, volume of shipment of battery of 3 yuan of lithium is 636.62MWh, both and adjacent.
Tianjin force god is given priority to for goods with battery of 3 yuan of lithium, shipment measured 254.98MWh in August; Inspire confidence in sb can science and technology and Shenzhen compare gram, Tianjin Guang Yu of nimble power, Harbin what these 4 enterprises supply to car look forward to is 3 Yuan Li batteries entirely; And Guo Xuan tall division, Henan roc brightness, Beijing country can be given priority to with lithium of phosphoric acid iron dozen, was 192.04MWh, 113.94MWh and 56.07MWh respectively for money amount in August.
Since 2018, augment power cell produces Biyadi can pace is accelerated, qinghai factory (24GWh) , factory of mountain of Chongqing a round flat piece of jade with a hole in its center (10GWh) , the joint-stock factory with Chang'an car (20GWh) and the project of Xi'an high new developed area that the autograph arranged in September (30GWh) , accumulative total adds 84GWh batteries newly to produce can, dynamical cell program always produces Biyadi can achieve 100GWh, was last year the shipment of domestic power cell is measured (36.24GWh) nearly 3 times, the great ambition of position of old of regain all corners of the country but ancient bronze mirror.
However, the day of the old appears uneasy also -- on August 23, ning Deshi is acting the newspaper in releasing shows: Company although battalion closes,grew 48.69% compared to the same period first half of the year, but the wool interest rate of each business is in glide, among them the net gain of the 2nd quarter 428 million yuan, relatively 2017 the 2nd quarter (686 million yuan) glided compared to the same period 37.61% , and money of receivable first half of the year Zhang is occupied current the scale of business income is as high as 87.7% .
Allowance fall off and upriver raw material rise in price is two causes that cause profit of dynamical cell company to drop ceaselessly, wounded more than Ning Deshi is acting, industry of whole power cell is in this to plant " two-way bear pressure, be attacked front and rear " condition. Forecast inside course of study, gross profit of dynamical cell company was led 2018 from this before 30% the left and right sides drops 20% the left and right sides, plus industry of foreign capital batteries enter, the industry shuffles will farther aggravate.
Before this year 8 months share 82 enterprises to come true to offer money effectively, among them before 10 market share is total 86.54% , do not remain the market of 14% by 72 enterprises " share " , big boss Ning Deshi lives actingly unfavorable situation is still such and difficult, these small young companies did not know when to disappear silently on market of driven power cell really...
Have such two the dot is undeniable: It is a car dynamoelectric the technology that change already was hasten of general trends place, policy tie of China develops method to be made clear already, 2 it is current the car is electric change technical course still unidentified bright, also have not appear inside global limits but model of sex of large-scale all-pervading mark. Meant this at 2 o'clock, the car holds dynamical cell market will and row and perfect, performance grows for market dimensions reason + technical course is optimized continuously + superior bad discard upgrades ceaselessly. (be over)
