An added ingredient
Last weekend, guizhou Maotai gave report of 3 quarters outstanding achievement, 3 quarters battalion closes to grow 3.81% compared to the same period, far 45.56% under 2 quarters, zhou Yi one open quotation, guizhou Maotai is sealed in drop stop board on. Besides, the little brother such as share of lane of 5 grain fluid, well, foreign river also drops in succession stop.
Why can you drop so miserable? The answer is very simple, because wear Wei Sishuang to kill -- anticipate appraise is worth and anticipate outstanding achievement to be adjusted downward together brought about anticipate the price is adjusted with bigger range, outstanding achievement and appraise value are killed together.
Clearly, outstanding achievement change and anticipate to some kind of nonlinear relation exists between share price, we will discuss this to plant between this one article nonlinear the germ of the relation, and the enlightenment that can bring to us.
Amplifier of outstanding achievement wave motion
Above all, we should admit two facts, 1, when outstanding achievement of a company rises, we decide it is permanent very hard rise or provisionality rises; 2, when outstanding achievement of a company glides, we decide gliding still is provisionality very hard also to it is permanent glide.
When we stand on dry bank, we can sober reflection, admit periodic existence, but, once we enter the water, we maintain this kind very hard to regain consciousness. Outstanding achievement rises persistent time is longer, we are willing to believe this kind rises more is permanent rise; Outstanding achievement glides persistent time is longer, it is permanent that we are willing to believe this kind glides more glide.
It is with the cycle that rise exemple, outstanding achievement rises persistent time is longer, believe outstanding achievement rises for permanent the rate of the person that rise is higher, the rate of share price overmeasure is older (often inside set some kind of nonlinear concern) . Below extreme case, everybody thinks the high outstanding achievement of this company grows can permanent abidance to go down.
On one hand, people cannot forecast future, calculate the real value that understands a stock; On the other hand, the perspective of people often is linear. So, they always are can promiscuous " permanent growth " and " provisionality grows " , and this kind promiscuous the fluctuation outclass that can cause stock price again fluctuation of its outstanding achievement -- outstanding achievement ascendant cycle substantially overmeasure, cycle of outstanding achievement be issued to lower levels is underestimated substantially.
From time to tome wind blows long narrow flag to move. One monk says pneumatic, one Seng Yuefan is moved. Eristic unceasingly. Benefit can enter: Blame pneumatic, blame long narrow flag is moved, benevolence person enchanted.
-- altar classics
Arrive from belief devotional and undone
From 2016 the four seasons is spent, the business income of Guizhou Maotai gains fast experience 7 quarters the growth of 30% above, the time that high speed grows is too long, so that people fashions a kind of belief -- Maotai is different, gift it " Oriental god water " beautiful praise.
After half annals came out 2018, the bargainor's complimentary to divine water not stint word, the negotiable securities that enrol business is used " calm Nereus needle, switch first selection " the title is commented on sign up for among them, gave out 870 target price. This shows, everybody is right " permanent growth " and " provisionality grows " of promiscuous degree big (article of short duration takes no account of moral risk element) , so that had " Maotai outstanding achievement forever good " devotional. However, reality is bone feeling, trifling a 3 quarterly reports, with respect to tear this belief -- heavy is big Maotai also is met outstanding achievement anticipates not as good as, also can betray investor.
Although 3 quarterly reports are final tear " Maotai outstanding achievement forever good " devotional, but, bargainors still are not willing a flourish of trumpets this fact. For example, the negotiable securities that enrol business is so of the 3 quarters quarterly reports that comments on Guizhou Maotai:
The company announces 3 quarterly reports, deliver goods the quantity compares fall after a rise in similarly hereinafter of high last year cardinal number, although have,carry valence and series wine to add thick forms for reporting statistics, maintain weak quarter to growing, but anticipate than the market still slightly low. Survey of bender of near future candy, flying Apsaras Maotai is moved annul still exuberant. Be controlled base capacity for liquor slants close, growth of the coming year sees ton of wine price promote contribution outstanding achievement. Adjust 18-19 year EPS26.70, 30.47 yuan, adjust target price to mark a price to 670 yuan of eye, corresponding 19 years 22 times, maintain " recommend strongly - A " grade.
-- the negotiable securities that enrol business
However, the majority person body on the market is honest, after 3 quarterly reports are announced the first trades day Maotai drops greatly 10% , the 2nd trades day continues to drop 4.75% .
Imagine not hard, inflection point of this outstanding achievement can bring up a kind of change probably: Break the belief of permanent fast growth, it is permanent that more and more people believe outstanding achievement glides glide, till outstanding achievement up inflection point is decided really.
Linear and psychedelic
Between our life, linear and psychedelic nowhere is absent: An ant can bear the ant of size of 100 oneself bodily form, the preterhuman existence that we believe to existence can bear 100 each body size; Same we also believe " Aoteman is big battle Gesila " such bridge paragraph, a bit also cannot find intuition to go up violate and feel.
In fact, we concern giant ant, beetle, spider or highbrow illusion of Gesila is early be guessed to come out by Galileo before nearly 400 years:
If the height of person, horse or other animal does not have the growth of limit, construction gives its skeleton frame and cannot make its produce normal effect. The weight of the oneself because of them can spend the ground indefinitely to increase, bring about them to fall and by the weight pulverize of oneself.
-- Galilean
Galilean hole sees very simple and direct, skeletal or the intensity of column bridge is by them cross section accumulates a decision, depend on the square with long side, but, the weight of the object depends on the cube with long side. So, self-prossessed growth is constant fast the growth rate at frame intensity, the object cannot spend ground wire sex indefinitely to magnify. However, our intuition often is met this plants oversight immanent nonlinear.
The person is animal of a kind of idea, we make clear Hunan has very hard how old linear of proportional idea dispute arrives linear approximate, and whether we are true realize this is planted approximate. So, the people that we believe very hard to rely on linear and psychedelic price can trade give an objective value -- the price often is subjective.
Last word
Between reality, nonlinear the scale of the relation exceeds our imagination, we also are to exceed to their misapprehensive degree of the imagination.
We often very the objective value that certainly computation gives a share, and accordingly value invests, forgot oneself right-down using the linear model that does not rely on chart, god is in laugh. The fluctuation of outstanding achievement of stock price outclass, just mirrorred the mankind this kind of blemish -- the blame that is based on linear to think is rational.
So, how should we face this kind of limitation? Have one's hands tied bundle crural what is not dry? Either. Use the tool of own at hand carefully, notice his applicable condition. Meanwhile, should realise soberly more, although yourself is careful, most person also may not is careful -- some moment, we must others also regard as not carefully a kind of attrib border condition.
Stay Hungry, stay Foolish. The hug is wrong (of others with oneself) , the hug is nonlinear, admit oneself always are can wrong, pay close attention to linear model by the crucial condition of card bogus.
-- earthy dog is pressed
Ps: Data comes from Wind, article head sends information of Yu Huaer market
