Increment of Chinese real-estate industry develops mode end, enter the period that put an amount, room look forward to in succession finance of layout real estate, develop new development field. Current, chinese landed finance still is in start level, have certain positive result but before the road is still unidentified bright.
How to seek the development way with landed new finance, whether can you draw lessons from the successful experience of international estate market? University of health Nai Er writings brush Liu Peng of the crackajack professor that tell banquet was attending finance of real estate of STB of abdicate business school to be writinged brush by high gold and university of health Nai Er abdicate business school is sponsorred jointly about a few days ago about " 2018 China real estate, elaborated how to produce financial new outlet from ground of China of international perspective look upon.
01
Amount of Chinese estate body is large, financial tool is immature
Real estate has inherent financial property, it is the admirable capital fund that can be used at guaranty, and very much investment uses lever get tall get one's own back. Real estate and finance are inseparable, we involve landed finance reduce the investment of profitability real estate and financing behavior. Although economic system of China is measured,already resided the whole world the 2nd, but the financial tool of our capital market is diseased still, immature, put in vast development space.
GDP gross of China and increment are very considerable, chinese GDP increment already exceeded 2017 or be equivalent to 1997, 1998 the economic gross of annual. Economic structure also had very major key is whole, the contributive rate that final spending of China increased to economy 2014 exceeds 50% , service line of business increases a value to occupy than exceeding 50% first, be closely bound up of the development that financial tool and capital negotiable securities change and this one structural adjustment.
From the point of the rule of world economy, each world places develop and disequilibrium, among them, american economy anabiosises very driving, newest number is GDP amplitude is amounted to 4.1% . Mention in the United States REALESTATE, those who think of is not sale of land development, residence, however the operation of commercial real estate and investment. We should pay close attention to the times that put an amount more the development of commercial real estate.
The good large chain that for instance residential development industry of the United States makes is brand, large appear on the market company total market prise adds in had not ranked the second commerce real estate, REIT - Simon Property that appear on the market (the market prise $620 of Simon property 100 million dollars) tall. The biggest 2017 REIT is in the United States is company of American report tower (American Tower, 100 million dollars of market prise $620) .
02
Estate is important national economic stability implement
Chinese estate is important national economic stability all the time implement, pull in taxation and industry moved a respect to produce crucial effect to socioeconomy.
2017, the GDP proportion of Chinese estate and relevant industry is as high as 23% , body amount is huge, the linkage that drives near 50 industries develops. From the point of finance income, income of 224 trillion yuan of finance is medium 2017, among them 1/3 come from at real estate.
American real-estate industry occupies GDP the proportion of 1/4, this one word of China comparatives with the United States on integral amount.
03
Town turns the half of a game or contest after development is entered, landed trade demand is driving
Change development to look from town. Chinese town changes development to came true to be broken through first 2014, exceeded the crucial point of 50% . The United States is in early finished this figure 1920, england may be earlier. The town of world most developed country is changed rate in 70%-80% , china just reachs the level that town changed the United States 1920 at present.
Town changes development a lot of problems produced in the process, for instance form a complete set serves backward, area development is lopsided. According to at present 50% to the rule of 70% , prospective town is changed rate still have very large development space, enter town to change the second half field of development namely. Second half field and before half of a game or contest is the biggest different depend on, second half field is the much trade condition with factitious core the period that integrated form a complete set develops.
The innovation policy of talent and population respect, also be the significant move of adjusting control estate. Up to now already 53 cities rolled out nearly 100 policy 2017. Arrive from city of line of just a little 34 cities, need aggrandizement talented person, attract obtain employment, promotion serves. Will look from prospective development, city of a gleam of will be farther scanty solution function, face the whole world to develop portal town; Second line city will face form a complete set of the excessive outside saving those who promote an industry completely, create new point of growth. 34 lines city turns farther implementation town, farmer citizen is changed etc, create the flow of Xin Yibo's talent, population.
The demand of industry whole is very driving, main show is a few following respects: One is the half of a game or contest after town is changed can appear ceaselessly to residential demand, forecast can reach the population peak value of 1.45 billion 2030, according to the developed country the town of 70% is changed rate, living space of average per capita 40 smooth rice, need residence 40 billion square metre, we still have the gap of 10 billion. 2 it is to go inventory is fruitful, canopy changes policy roll out, the longing that adds people to live to happiness and yearning, the city upgrades there still can be further progress in the process.
04
Be pregnant with wears landed finance to expand a scope tremendously
The development that did not come to the ground to produce finance is existing a large number of opportunities, include structural sex opportunity and change direction model opportunity.
Structural sex opportunity basically has 5: The first, town spends second half paragraph, release continuously just needed; The 2nd, perspective of high quality residence is wide, in order to satisfy the improvement that townsman develops increasingly requirement; The 3rd, 3 big + a few high grade city; The 4th, "Canopy changes " will heavy model pattern of 34 lines town, drive new-style town to change; The 5th, bad assets deals with.
Change about town, canopy changes policy, basically narrate here the following at 2 o'clock:
Above all, seize the opportunity of group of 3 big trade and sex of structure of high grade city. 2017, old economy encircles Ji San of ferry of HongKong and Macow of long triangle, another name for Guangdong Province, Beijing the proportion of the proportion that holds GDP, population proportion and real-estate industry, it is the biggest, took Chinese half of country. As the huge improvement of traffic facilities, circle of large trade city has tremendous appeal, can attract the opportunity of the structural sex such as talent, investment for a long time, in circle of 3 old economy, demand of population, town planning, industry will have great progress.
Additional, of bad assets deal with the opportunity point with make landed trade main. Be in the United States, each finance innovation follows landed and relevant finance to innovate to arise as estate crisis especially. Be in China, the bad assets that Hua Rong and letter amount to more than 50% above comes from at estate domain, the opportunity of estate domain invests fund to bring very great opportunity to estate. Upper reaches, the bank comes off bad assets, middle reaches, 4 big capital fund manage company provincial AMC to receive, downstream, landed industry deals with bad assets. In process of landed finance innovation, bad assets deals with ability is core competition ability actually.
Turn to sexual opportunity to basically have 4: The first, grow to rent apartment or will become industry new vane; The 2nd, focusing city class differs property to transform; The 3rd, of all kinds theme is landed; The 4th, negotiable securities of landed industry assets changes REITs of like a rising wind and scudding clouds to anticipate apparent.
Specific say to changed direction at 2 o'clock model opportunity: The first, the city is newer. Of urban center add land newly less and less, value is higher and higher also, core city in succession from the phase that tears open a lunar month of 30 days to enter a city to update greatly. The city updates level to need pair of existing property and district to undertake new fixed position, reasonable transform, those who realize a function upgrade optimize, create the value of property.
Additional, in the process that upgrades in the city, of property transform the opportunity with tremendous presence. Grow among them hire apartment to had become the vane with new industry; The occurrence of real estate of of all kinds theme and deepen.
Produce new outlet of finance from ground of China of international perspective look upon, it is additional monarch path. His Shan Zhishi, can attack jade, abroad already had effect to the exploration of landed finance, face complex and changeful environment, china can draw lessons from abroad's successful experience, try mainland is changed, transition of the look forward to that it is a room upgrades seek new thinking, explore new development way and breakthrough aspect.
* notes: Be in high gold and university of Kang Nai Er to sponsor according to Professor Liu Peng " meeting and global asset configure peak of 2018 China landed finance and negotiable securities changes forum " the speech content that go up is arranged
