From October the middle ten days of a month, shanghai glue ended early days to rebound high state situation, greet a prices of stronger fall after a rise, index of glue of article China Shanghai by highest 12840 when, drop all the time 10675, drop amount to 16.86% , although drop bigger, but decline than what chemical industry tastes futures whole posture, still relatively alleviation. Summary rises, epicycle drops main factor is not the aggravation that comes from main area, and basically be oil price steeps fall more bring drop chemical industry tastes be caused by, the storehouse odd pressure that additionally early days accumulates ceaselessly also offerred nominal more sufficient hope, and on the technology year very good opportunity also was offerred under the line. To later period, the author thinks big environment of catenary of the industry below current background is met somewhat comfortable, and glue city itself also lies to be improved infirmly in the process, futures tastes as oil price and chemical industry on the technology gradually sound foundation look forward to is firm, of Shanghai glue drop kinetic energy drops apparently, continue to worsen drop the probability that defeats 10 thousand a little bit to prop up is not big, and because a large number of futures storehouse is odd cancelling of the near future, nominal becomes loose somewhat, short-term inside Shanghai glue appears possibly even one with the index 10600 for what prop up technical rebound posture.
One, crop compared to the same period annulus is compared all fall after a rise, country yield rubber exports annulus comparing to drop
3 quarters, the data after amending shows, although day glue advocate crop yield a division continues to maintain perch, monthly crop all is maintained in 1 million tons of above, but reach annulus comparing to all appear compared to the same period fall after a rise, among them compared to the same period amplitude is in 8, drop two months 9 continuously, according to ANRPC newest data, crop achieved 1.053 million tons in September, compare 1.093 million tons of August, annulus comparing drops 3.66% , dropped last year compared to the same period 4.67% , decrease two months compared to the same period continuously, so far, monthly crop peak value decides case probably to be in 1.093 million tons of August this year, although the four seasons spends data to still be deficient in, but predicting likelihood annulus is compared pick up somewhat, but the possibility that achieves high point again is not large, total supply side is put in the likelihood of pressure of decompression follow-up market.
Advocate side of export yield a country, ANRPC newest data shows, produced glue country in August integrated exit achieves 860 thousand tons, annulus compares 930 thousand tons of August, annulus comparing falls amount to 7.53% , among them, thailand exit still achieves 315 thousand tons at most, relatively dropped in August apparent, amount to 31 thousand tons, ended successive the exit of 3 months picks up posture; Indonesian exit achieved 288 thousand tons in September, relatively get on 285 thousand tons of the month, small increase 3000 tons; Malaysia is held basically in September firm, exit is maintained control in 90 thousand tons; Vietnam exported 130 thousand tons in September, annulus compares 171 thousand tons of August, drop 41 thousand tons, drop apparent.
2, downstream start working maintains perch, but crop and exit all are changed infirmly
After stage disaster caused by a windstorm contracted go into operation of industry of tire of be a burden on in August, rate of start working of the last ten-day of a month in 3 quarters restores gradually, and maintain all the time in the first ten days of a month in subsequently four quarters be in more exalted buy, start working of complete steel embryo is maintained basically in 75% a gleam of, start working of half steel embryo also is maintained in 69% above, although compare 2 quarters start working,show a bit inferior, but compare the corresponding period had risen last year many, this also propped up glue of the day at the beginning of four quarters rebound high prices.
Crop respect, newest data shows, crop of cover tyre of the tire inside statistic achieved 72.81 million October, continue to glide than 73.69 million annulus comparing September, had appeared since June successive of 4 months glide posture, and with example face, more far be less than last year 79.5 million of the corresponding period.
Export side, tire exported 36.82 million in October, drop before was being defeated successive 3 months are retentive 40 million above close greatly, through September brief after rebounding, turn around again drop, enter four quarters seasonal export atrophic phase.
3, stock of free tax zone falls greatly, waist of futures storehouse only cut is cancelled
Through the middle ten days of a month came in May August of the middle ten days of a month slow pick up, inventory of Qingdao free tax zone is in later period was entered again in August drop level, and be in 9, experienced two months 10 to drop quickly period, up to in October the middle ten days of a month, total reserve of balata of Qingdao free tax zone falls those who reach 112 thousand tons is low, day glue and synthetic glue inventory appear to drop considerably posture, among them, day glue stock falls reach fifty-two thousand one hundred tons, synthetic glue stock falls reach fifty-six thousand three hundred tons, of inventory go low quickly to glue city in October before the middle ten days of a month rise provided very good support. As a result of Qingdao custom changed systematic account after the middle ten days of a month in October, of short duration of data of reserve of free tax zone was not announced. Under photograph comparing, earlier stage of side of domestic futures inventory criterion pressure is highlighted, futures storehouse sheet is achieved again and again tall, achieve a five hundred and twenty-one thousand eight hundred tons history for a time new tall, pass later storehouse odd concentration cancelled two hundred and nine thousand five hundred tons on November 23, futures stock falls immediately close half, the fall of futures inventory or will make period price gets breathing temporarily, but later stage of side of merchandise on hand will carry on gradually the pressure that comes from futures inventory, this or will become later stage of be a burden on period price takes one of factors of situation.
4, oil price drops madly without li head, chemical industry is tasted the land is swarmed with famished refugees
The inadequacy in the past two months time, accompanying American crude oil stock rises 10 weeks continuously (office of American energy information (EIA)11 announces a report 28 days month to show, up to became on November 23, inventory of American crude oil increases 3.577 million pails to reach 450.5 million pails, successive 10 weeks of collections must grow, for since September 2015 the longest go up repeatedly record, the market beforehand appraise is increase 769 thousand pails of) , international oil price performs the mad have diarrhoea after becoming by original callback, beautiful crude oil points to by highest when 76.14 drop to 50.68 recent, drop panel height is amounted to 33.44% , efface all the year round oil price goes up, and still did not stop at present drop. Suffer oil price to steep fall influence, domestic chemical industry tastes a declining tendency, chemical industry tastes futures price to be defeated one after another drop greatly, chinese crude oil, polyolefin, PTA, methanol, fuel, bitumen does not have one escape by sheer luck, methanol accumulative total drops exceed 30% even, under photograph comparing, shanghai glue makes an appointment with the accumulative total of 17% to drop do not calculate serious, to later period, chemical industry tastes what still be in hardship to stop drop in certain course of look forward to, overall situation predicts to still thin and weak, shanghai glue also will continue to get atmosphere is negative influence.
5, summary and look into:
Can see, of Shanghai glue epicycle drop be not main area to worsen continuously be caused by, should say to main area posture compares early days or improve somewhat, on one hand case of downstream start working is better, on the other hand inventory of free tax zone also is in drop level, and southeast Asia produces area exit to also did not rise considerably, of Shanghai glue epicycle dropping basically is crude oil steeps fall bring drop chemical industry is tasted, produce an area to be in rubber tapping to produce busy season to cause futures inventory to rise continuously plus home bring be caused by of older warehouse odd pressure, and just also meet early days rebounds on the technology year of line around, breakthrough pressure is greater, a variety of dish side benefit empty factor causes Shanghai glue again to the index 10000 close fall after a rise greatly. To later period, the author thinks because American oneself near future is natural calamity is serious below big environment, and metaphase election has ended, policy can enter relatively smooth period, atmosphere of policy of catenary of balata tire industry or will comfortable change, and to glue city itself, although inventory of many tons of 20 futures turns to be able to bring pressure of merchandise on hand for merchandise on hand, but already dropped with downstream and current go into operation and employment of inventory of early days of free tax zone low in light of the circumstance, digestive question is not big, and on the technology, taste futures as oil price and chemical industry gradually sound foundation look forward to is firm, of Shanghai glue drop kinetic energy drops apparently, be in Wenhua Shanghai temporarily glue index 10650 around find prop up, continue to worsen drop the probability that defeats 10 thousand a little bit to prop up is not big, and cancel considerably as a result of sheet of storehouse of near future futures, nominal becomes loose somewhat, short-term inside Shanghai glue appears possibly even one with the index 10600 for what prop up technical rebound posture.
