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Malic futures is accompanying the acuteness wave motion of prices, clinch a deal the capacity also appeared to grow breathtakingly, quantity peak value clinchs a deal to exceed 6.6 million inside day, futures was become to encircle the net red variety inside in the shortest time. Malic futures appears on the market the main stage of prices has:
The first phase: Stock is expensive, merchandise on hand anticipates difference, paper adds velar pass on a message to appear;
The 2nd phase: Send exchange specification of complete a business transaction is held to meet at the beginning of March, severe charge mass, reject paper to add film;
The 3rd phase: Frost causes big reduction in production, drive prices unilateral to rise;
The 4th phase: Bourse raises poundage earnest money often, stabilize the market.
Malic futures is in move the storehouse trades a month in the center. Price of AP1810 agreement open quotation 9340 yuan / ton, closing quotation price 9314 yuan / ton, relatively before one trade day dropped 26 yuan / ton, drop for 1.48% . Clinch a deal the quantity is two hundred and ninety-five thousand three hundred hand about, the quantity that maintain a warehouse reduces 5234 hands to come 157174 hands; Among them AP1901 agreement clinchs a deal the quantity is two hundred and forty-nine thousand one hundred hand, the quantity that maintain a warehouse is 163320 hands.
Sell an area to take money not free, make merchandise trade much apt put on sale keeps supply of goods oneself, ease inventory pressure, at present tone commodity traveling trader is centered in dwell glow and periphery to produce a division more, state of mind of the demand a low price in purchasing is very strong. Case of commodity price of all of fruit grower of above of class of just a little of Fuji of paper bag of market of apple of glow of Shandong Yantai dwell is in 2.6-2.8, the market considers price with pledging, value of level of just a little of above of travelling merchant 80# is controlled in 3.2-3.5. (unit: Yuan / jin)
Rate of fruit of crop of new year apple, actor all falls, the crop after bag is covered in the apple as each orgnaizations beforehand appraise result is poured out of in succession, crop is shown not allow hopeful condition, later period weather still puts not certain factor. But the part is stricken be hit by a natural adversity the fruit grower of the area is exorbitant to buying the price newly this year to also did not anticipate if really, exorbitant meeting affects price of afraid instead apple money rate, think to be able to be in rose on the foundation last year 0.2 yuan / jin - 0.3 yuan / jin compare satisfaction. Of the new fruit of later period buy valence and actor fruit to lead what will affect malic price directly to rise extent. Produce Ou Qixia to produce an area to move commodity traveling trader to increase somewhat, but the psychology of demand a low price with widespread serious presence, strong position is held in trade, the price is maintained by suppress slant weak situation, merchandise trade is carried oneself deliver goods undertake steadily. And get spot sale pressure, bring about malic contract price slanted in July weak, drive far month to go weak thereby. This phenomenon is before August difficult end of of short duration.
Malic supply and demand was summarized 2018
1.The apple supplies a case
According to national statistic bureau newest data shows, countrywide apple crop was 43.88 million tons 2016, among them Shaanxi apple crop is most, it is eleven million and seven thousand eight hundred tons; It is Shandong next, it is nine million seven hundred and eighty-one thousand two hundred tons. According to statistic, shaanxi saved an apple 2017 eleven million five hundred and thirty-nine thousand four hundred tons, relatively go up year of growth 4.8% . 2017 refrigeratory storage capacity 14 million tons, apple of in former years picks bag of time that is focussed basically in National Day around 5 days, 8 or so pick in succession if really, a large number of trading begin on 15 or so markets. Shandong area apple was picked 2017 during bag meet hard again sunshine illuminate all things, successive cloudy weather makes Fuji chromatically slow, time leaving a tree again and again protracted, large quantities of quantities trade time should defer 7-10 day to control than in former years. Because weather is affected, integral rate of progress is slow. Together with, actor fruit rate is low this year, good fruit is not worth a half, travelling merchant early days looks at price high quality difference dare not start work tardy, later period wants to close do not close to go up quantity, final put in storage is led only 7 into the left and right sides, most refrigeratory inventory is malcontent.
2.The apple consumes a circumstance
The apple has apparent seasonal characteristic, malic lifecycle is the season that harvests from October begins, many bright apple appears on the market, the price drops gradually come to was controlled in December, the demand before spring increases rise in price, the price stabilized Spring Festival hind basically March, 4, reduced the value is little get warm again after a cold spell as inventory May, 6, attributed digestive inventory level July, the price bears summertime fruit the impact is bigger. Price of 2017/2018 year apple carries very stable price all the time, because,basically be 2017 the crown of the year, psychology of malic cherish carry out is stronger, supply not quite, before the Spring Festival small rise, spring Festival hind keeps smooth again, the frost calamity April brings about an apple to reemerge this year psychology of cherish carry out, walk along goods to decelerate, to July because extruding stock is more expensive, undersell psychology is strengthened, so the price keeps stable all the time.
3.Exit circumstance
Custom statistic shows, our country bright apple exported a quantity to be 1.33 million tons 2017, exit forehead is 1.46 billion dollar, with before one year photograph comparing keeps balance basically. Our country imported malic gross to be 68 thousand tons 2017, grew 2% compared to the same period; Entrance apple amount is 110 million dollar, decreased compared to the same period 7% . From the point of exit gross of the apple, our country continued to maintain world the biggest apple to export national position 2017. The country of before the apple exports destination to rank 5 is: Bangladesh, Philippine, India, Thailand and Indonesia. Grew 30% compared to the same period to export volume of Indonesia 2017 among them, achieved 117 thousand tons; To Philippine exit the quantity keeps balance basically compared to the same period, and to the exit of other the Three Kingdoms the capacity appears of different level small drop. To 2018 the export trade of domestic apple, because at present the malic exit to India and Indonesia suffers,be restricted, because this future is short-term inside the exit situation of homebred apple nots allow hopeful. On the other hand, fruit afterwards exports homebred 2017 Luo Chuanping successfully after Australia, enter German market permissibly again, this also is our country apple infiltrates first European Union market, show homebred apple is more stable on character.
4.Replace a gender
Our country dweller basically consumes fruit breed to apple, banana, pear, orange, watermelon, grape, strawberry, peach, apricot, yangtao waits, among them apricot, strawberry most mature first, take second place of peach, watermelon, apple, pear, grape, yangtao is later, orange is the latest, banana is intertropical fruit, all the year round can be harvested. The basis considers to discover to the dependency between of all kinds fruit and apple, the correlation coefficient of grape, banana and apple is in 0.8 above, the correlation coefficient of Feng Shuili and sweet orange and apple is in 0.6 above, the fruit such as watermelon, yangtao is right of the apple replace a gender not tall. Accordingly we basically are aimed at grape, banana, Feng Shuili, sweet orange to do replace a gender to analyse.
5 flood of our country are apple, orange, pear, banana, grape respectively if really, among them 6.8% what banana imports a quantity to occupy gross about, other breed basically is sold oneself with be being produced oneself give priority to. From the graph 4 can see, crop of our country fruit goes into what year after year increases situation, among them the crop of apple, orange goes force is the most powerful, of pear go force is the weakest. Can be informed from crop as standard of living rise, the consumption that consumer drinks orange to the apple also increases gradually, also be to increase to banana, pear, grape, but opposite less. From the graph 2 can see an apple after cultivating an area to begin to be decreased first from 2000, give, of orange cultivate an area to increase to continuously 2014, grapy cultivates an area to increase in what last all the time, and of banana, pear cultivate an area to change not quite. Crop and the synchronous change that grow an area show these a few kinds of fruits, appear the disaster probability of extensive influence total output is not big.
Crop of walnut of pear, red jujube, grape, peach, cover, orange all appears to grow quickly, especially orange and yangtao, short lustrum crop turned over one times above, yangtao exceeds 3 million tons actually, orange is in commonly 5-6 year enter high yield period, 2017/18 year big bumper crop, guangxi is saccharic tangerine price the 2.5-3 from in former years yuan / jin steep fall to 0.8-1 yuan / jin. The apple is new old conform period, more getting that summertime fruity is pounded. 2018 during the Spring Festival because crop of saccharic tangerine of Guangxi, Guangdong erupts,the gender grows, saccharic tangerine price falls to in last few years low, squeeze the market demand that took an apple in great quantities, yield of green jujube of Taiwan of other fruit respect also appears soar, the price is extremely low, replace it is important to become current apple consumption to drop element.
Supply and demand of 2018-2019 year apple
1.The apple supplies circumstance analysis
The temperature before tomb-sweeping day is higher, florescence shifts to an earlier date, so temperature pelter comes 0 times during tomb-sweeping day, especially on April 6, 7 days of before dawn, northwest falls south quickness of strong cold air, air temperature pelter, fall a 8-18 degree. Our country northward fruit produces an area to produce microtherm harm generally, among them the fruiter suffer injury of Gansu Province, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi is most serious, freeze injury of Xinjiang, Heibei, Henan, Shandong, Liaoning is lighter. Harm of the young fruit such as jujube of the field cherry of Gansu Province, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Ningxia, pear, peach, yangtao, grape, persimmon, walnut, winter, apple, bud, bud, lamina is apparent. Northwest area apple is overall case of reduction of output is relatively severe, but from the point of survey circumstance, disaster area distributings inhomogenous case is relatively clear. The aspic calamity during tomb-sweeping day is not apparent to Shandong area influence this year. 51 around, be worth Yantai (Shandong basically produces a division) the apple blossoms level, this phase sits for the apple the important level of fruit. Rainfall of area of 51 around Yantai is bigger, sit to be led if really to local apple form bigger impact. Graph 7 achieve information data for eminent, the whole nation beforehand estimate reduction of output 26.02% , watch 5 publish data for Chinese apple net, the whole nation beforehand estimate reduction of output 42.6% .
2.Malic demand is analysed
Because the situation is special this year, occurrence demand breach. Express evenly according to Usda computative, academic 2018 crop is controlled for 46 million tons. Achieve information to have survey data to the circumstance of actual reduction in production of producing area according to eminent, computative 2018/2019 year countrywide reduction of output 30% , criterion 2018 beforehand estimate output is 32.2 million tons. Malic reduction of output will naturally accompany those who let a malic value to rise, costly apple can restrain delicacy to feed, treatment and exit. Below the element that rises in price in the consideration, we press treatment 3.2 million tons, export 750 thousand tons, loss 5.94 million tons, hang fruit area newly 1 million mus lose academic crop 1.5 million tons of computation, breach of the supply and demand below the circumstance that takes no account of delicacy to feed change is 9.03 million tons. Must continue to rise through the price so reduce delicacy to feed consumption and other demand to make up for breach of supply and demand. Delicacy feeds breach replace rely on on one hand rise in price control demand, rely on other fruity to replace on the other hand.
3.Supply variable
The apple covers what the need after bag pays close attention to mainly is 7, expand period still had in August after September chromatic period. Expand period: Overcast and rainy can bring about the quantity that contain sugar to reduce, character becomes poor; Chromatic period: What weather of overcast and rainy can affect fructification is chromatic with normal growth, a large number of precipitation, can cause a large number of cracking if really, lower yield.
Malic futures trades logistic
1.Reduction of output
Be in considerably below the fundamental key of reduction of output, rise the trend already was decided, early days is acclaimed in April frost reduction of output, later period has the other weather hype such as hail ceaselessly, make the stone pressing cabin of prices at present, exalted concussion after a month, reduction of output anticipates more difficult already before next fruit cash exciting prices continues to attack. Unless be in 7-8 month expand period, the last ten-day of a month is chromatic in September period appear more puissant national calamity.
2.Cost of complete a business transaction
Scale of sampling observation of malic complete a business transaction 5 ‰ , 20 tons, 100 kilogram (probably 400) do organic index to examine, smoke 20 to do manage to change index to examine again among them (hardness pol all is worth amount to mark) , organic add up to allows the fructification of 5% not to accord with the tone that this grade sets to ask. Merchandise on hand of class of Shandong just a little bought valence 2.8-4 last year yuan / jin, storage cost 07 agreement be about to complete a business transaction, do not calculate the cost below the circumstance of trafficker profit is in probably 9500-10000 yuan / ton. Difficulty basically is reflected last year Shandong actors or actress fruit is little, hardness is low now, good money the rest is not much wait for an element. The apiration that receive money is low also, the last ten-day of a month received goods to sell time to be not worth in July, cannot sell a price that receive money basically, attrition cost is big. During month of complete a business transaction much air will still rich play chess is final the price.
3.Spot price of 07 complete a business transaction goes situation
Achieve data according to eminent, on June 23 countrywide refrigeratory stocks 2.01 million tons, increase compared to the same period 27% . The refrigeratory that prices betted after freeze injury in April increases, 7-8 opens a library after month. Dragon boat festival is the last after consuming a red-letter day, various supply of goods takes money all not as good as the corresponding period, slant slow. Wraparound for, what poor goods low handles is faster, the possibility that later period of high grade supply of goods rises in price and rise range is bigger, what low supply of goods handles is slower, the space that follow-up of high grade supply of goods rises in price can decrease. The price that the high grade apple after complete a business transaction sells once more can have bigger agio with value of complete a business transaction.
4.Old make new evaluate case conform
① in September in October from red general, red the speed selling goods that appears on the market to Fuji and price.
New seasonal and all Fuji produces ② region output and quality.
The gain circumstance of the sale price of apple of the Fuji in a seasonal and final library and operator of merchandise on hand.
5.Replace an influence
According to Xinhua News Agency countrywide farming by-product is mixed farming endowment the data of price quotations system that monitor shows, the price all shows the fruit whole nation that monitored since the portion in March 2014 to rise apparently situation, partial variety price rises bigger. With compared on March 1, on May 20, price of mandarin orange of apple of snowflake pear, orange, banana, a kind of pear grown in Hebei Province, Fuji, reed rises respectively 17.7% , 16.5% , 15.3% , 12.5% , 7.0% , 6.2% . Malic yield did not appear 2014 bigger reduction of output, rise in price main reason is on the high side of fruit whole price. Apple and other fruity rate of exchange were not pulled open apparently, 2018 the reduction of output of peach, cherry (the price) , litchi pineapple high yield, malic price is in perch relative to other fruit price, cause demand not beautiful, cause breach of supply and demand because of new season reduction of output again, price big probability continues to rise, if once the Ying Jishui such as pear of autumn orange grape is done not have if really,rising apparently so, will arise to replace an influence certainly to the apple.
