Trap of this 4 old thinking, earlier recognize lives more successfully

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In every decision-making phase, the concept originallies in promiscuous, bias and other thought some blemish, the choice that we make metropolis twist.

Avoiding the best measure that this phenomenon produces is understanding has what thinking trap, accomplish precautions averts perils, adopt measure to avoid to judge error as far as possible, enhance decision-making self-confident heart.

In an article " trap of this 3 old thinking, earlier recognize must jump over a success alive " in, we are emphasized announced 3 common thinking trap, this article serves as complement today, give everybody introduction 4 again, so that everybody is checked oneself one by one, the following, enjoy:

Commonsensible gentleman | The word says

01

Angst at impressive incident: Memorial trap

You think the random of some American big airline a plane, does the probability that produces aviation accident when normal voyage have how old?

Most person is met the probability that this kind of incident produces overmeasure.

Actually, show according to a report of Masschusetts Institute of Technology, the probability of this kinds of incident is ten million 1/0!

The mankind concludes according to experience the probability of incident, and those very astonishing incident, affect the memory of people greatly.

Accordingly, people always exaggerates the probability that the catastrophic event that produces actually rarely produces, media always also is full length ground of tired wooden tablets or slips for writing has a story to these incident, created the false appearance that the incident of and so on of such as aviation accident produces again and again to people.

In fact, you are opposite twist the everything of the memory of certain incident, twist you are opposite the estimation of the probability of those things.

In an experiment, investigator two account the list of full name of certain man, lady gives respectively two groups of people are read, the amount of the man on every list and lady is same, just the man on A list should compare a lady famouser, and B list as it happens is contrary.

After seeing those list, investigator asks attend experimenter, on the list that they see, how much is the scale of man and lady.

The person that read A list says a man over lady, and the person that read B list says a lady over man.

How to cope with memorial trap?

Want to change this kind of wrong effect infirmly, should accomplish:

When you are estimating or be being forecasted, the hypothesis premise that wants him scrutiny, the thinking that ensures wrong memory does not have undue him influence.

As long as likely, want to obtain objective statistical data as far as possible. If do not have direct data, try to have the place that you try to evaluate incident fractionation, arrive as a child next big, from local arrive to undertake an analysis stage by stage entirely.

For example, if need to forecast some airliner to produce the possibility of contingency, can collect the statistical data that produces contingency every year respectively, and the statistical data of annual airliner gross.

Although such probability that reach are likely the data that is inferior to Masschusetts Institute of Technology is accurate, but the judgement that always pats a head to reach than you wants accurate much.

02

Ignore relevant news: The trap of fundamental rate

Donald Jones or is a librarian, or is a bagman. The people description to his individual character, with " do not be good at socialization " this statement is most appropriate.

Does the probability that he is a librarian have how old?

Face afore-mentioned tests, the reaction of most person is: The thing is very fair, he is a librarian, because the librarian is not good at socialization more likely, and bagman compares optimistic, extroversion commonly.

Accordingly, the probability that he is a librarian is at least 90% . Listen go up very reasonable, actually full of prunes.

This kind of logic mistake, wanting the fact of outclass male librarian at ignoring the measure of male bagman.

Be in the United States, the amount of male bagman and male librarian is compared for 100 ∶ 1, before this kind of individual character that considers Donald Jones to not be good at socialization in you, should think of above all, the possibility that he has 1% only is a librarian.

This is fundamental rate.

Now, want " do not be good at socialization " trait of this kind of character.

Assume the male librarian of 50% is not good at socialization, only at the same time the male bagman of 5% is not good at socialization, combinative base rate can reach, the scale that Jones is a librarian is only 10% , is not 90% .

Negligence base rate can bring very big trouble to you.

How to cope with the trap of fundamental rate?

Anatomize your reflection process, ensure did not conceal any information, use following proposal to serve as guidance.

Do not ignore relevant data, fundamental rate takes seriously when evaluate.

The probability lump that does not differ the concept (for example, the probability that does not want promiscuous librarian to not be good at socialization and the probability that not be good at gregarious person is a librarian) .

03

Ill-natured probability and estimation result: Careful trap

If you are the researcher of orgnaization of a medicine, considering to meet the medical plan of some kind of potential carcinogen.

After reading experimental data and relevant document, the probability that you think the sort of potential carcinogen brings about cancer happening is 1% , but still cannot affirm.

So, do you think how much probability should be after all?

A lot of people can support extremely cautious attitude below this kind of circumstance, avoid to make forecast range too small, then will 1% raise 1/20. They feel such estimation " safe " .

But if you adopt this a few times to plant continuously,judge a method, rise their result overlay, so, all acting on " careful " the estimation result that the manner reachs, arise the seriousness to the problem completely screwy understanding.

Place of example of above of no less than makes clear in that way, even if best decision-making motive -- careful, cause our error possibly also.

One is plant " worst case analyses a way " , ever was the method of weapon system design and the groovy design of a few machine equipment, construction.

Adopt this kind of method, although those weapons are almost impossible to be used in extremely infrequent harsh environment, also ask they can be used normally below worst condition.

"Worst circumstance analyses a way " raised cost of a huge sum and do not have actual beneficial result, this explains, excessive discretion can be brought about incorrect decision-making.

In commercial act, too overcautious likelihood brings disastrous consequence.

Old before, as the United States one of 3 the biggest car firms the sells busy season new-style car supply that some manufacturer prepares to make shortly will come.

This task gave sale project division, then, sale project division gathers pertinent information from other department, if expect the sale, measure that divides the investment that sell business, competitor and cost,wait.

After knowing gathering information is to forecast car supply, of all branches forecast apt support produces more cars -- to beg insurance for the purpose of.

Next, sale project division the data that the basis obtains, those who joined themselves " to beg insurance for the purpose of " adjust.

Without doubt, car output far outclass is actual demand.

The time that this company must spend 6 months comes low sells stock.

How to cope with careful trap?

Should undertake reliable decision-making, openness is crucial.

Honestly, not ground of mix into moisture undertakes forecast and estimating. When communicating with other, the information that ensures place is offerred was not acted on " careful " other perhaps reason undertakes subjective adjust.

the information of those estimation that support you the record comes down, so that other can understand better.

The person that offer to information emphasizes, you need objective information.

Try different estimation to be worth interval, consider pair of final and decision-making impacts. To more sensitive estimation, want floriferous dot time to want.

04

Coincidence mystification: Amazed trap

John Rayleigh is a legend character. He once was in twice large award is won in the lottery of large award in the probability of 1/1000000 only.

The probability of this kind of thing happening, have 1/-727379968 only.

A few people are attributed to his preterhuman force, think a few more additionally to have cogged suspicion. How do you look?

Look suddenly, a person wins probability twice to be the lottery large award of 1/1000000, almost impossible.

Good, let us try to analyse an analysis.

Suppose 1000 people once won large award, they tried 100 times again, try to be obtained again lucky.

So, took a chance 100 thousand times in the large award of 1/1000000 probability, that is to say, any one person of these philtrum, the probability of win a prize in a lottery is 1/10.

So look, you can discover actually it is not what miracle, still cannot call the issue that produces rarely even.

Amazed trap results from there are a few amazed parts originally in impertinent look upon reality, and people or did not realize, or is not willing to admit.

A lot of people gain fund again and again because of gamble (perhaps invest extraordinary success) , think him luck is particularly good, or the level is particularly high, but we should be not puzzled by these dramatic incident place.

Come from probability say, always some people will be in good luck: The probability that this person is you fitly may be dinky, but fall in certain circumstance, this person is the probability of a certain person, the likelihood is so not little.

A few wealthy people win out, the likelihood is not the business head because of them, is in good luck only stopped.

Because,the person of a few misfortune may is not foolish incompetent perhaps -- it is so not in good luck only stopped.

When coincidence happening, people always is puzzled easily.

They cannot accept the aleatoric sex of random incident, apt is used magical, numinous force will explain event, and also be had blind faith in to oneself rise, think themselves is to have some kind of outstanding place certainly.

How to cope with amazed trap?

When the incident that looks very infrequent when some happens, do not be startled to abandon the law of probability and logic, and want to believe, all unusual event are destined.

Normally you can find a very good explanation.

Remember below this when:

There are a lot of rare things originally on the world, you can be experienced for certain a few among them.

Some things look curious, be not actually so curious, for instance, the philtrum that chooses arbitrarily in 24 discovers two birthday (month and day) same person, does its probability have how old? The answer is: Exceed 50% .