These days, pig price rebounds quickly again after brief callback, and exceed very quickly in March the high point of the first ten days of a month, countrywide live pig gives column all valence breaks through 7.5 yuan / jin, southern advocate sell an area to be defeated generally 8, the price of pig of area of specific high price such as Sichuan breaks through 9 yuan once more even / jin, and northward advocate price of pig yield a division also has been defeated in the round 7, broken even of 8 also be absent a few.
Why price of near future pig is like is this strong?
Because the pig is really little.
Agricultural country ministry released data of newest amount of livestock on hand recently, the data that monitor shows, the whole nation can be numerous in Feburary 2019 sow amount of livestock on hand drops compared to the same period 19.1% , annulus comparing drops 5.0% , live pig amount of livestock on hand drops compared to the same period 16.6% , annulus comparing drops 5.4% . Mean the market to produce can go changing rate field of far already supermarket anticipates.
The change of data of amount of livestock on hand Feburary is worth deliberate very much actually. We know, the whole nation can be numerous in January 2019 sow amount of livestock on hand drops compared to the same period 14.8% , annulus comparing drops 3.6% , live pig amount of livestock on hand drops compared to the same period 12.6% , annulus comparing drops 5.4% . January, annulus of live pig amount of livestock on hand, sow amount of livestock on hand compares dropping considerably is very easy understanding. Because prices is low January,confuse, together with is a column year ago and wash out fastigium, it is normal that amount of livestock on hand drops considerably, from the point of the circumstance of in former years, mostly such also.
But this year in Feburary, just about during the Spring Festival, hog slaughter volume drops considerably, the prices after together with section somewhat improvement, especially young pig price has appeared to rise apparently, the sow washs out strength behoove to begin abate. This, it is OK to have relevant data test and verify.
Appear on the market greatly from each pig look forward to releases sale data looked in Feburary, wen sold commodity flesh hog in Feburary one million four hundred and sixty thousand four hundred, annulus comparing drops 41.42% , company explanation basically is the effect that suffers Spring Festival holiday, company flesh pig sells rhythm to be adjusted somewhat, and sold a day Feburary number and photograph comparing is little January 3 days. state science and technology sold hog in Feburary three hundred and fifty-eight thousand two hundred, annulus comparing drops 53.12% , company explanation was Feburary be worth holiday of traditional Spring Festival, workaday day number is shorter, this grandfather department predicts get warm again after a cold spell of later period prices, put the rhythm giving column of delay live pig. New hope sold hog in Feburary one hundred and seventy-six thousand three hundred, annulus comparing drops 40% .
In short, feburary, suffer effect of Spring Festival holiday, normal go into operation also may have massacre look forward to only two weeks of right-and-left time, dimensions pig farm gives column quantity to drop is common phenomenon, and annulus is moster than dropping exceed 50% even, entire industry gives column to measure annulus to compare due also and apparent drop.
Respect of amount of livestock on hand of can numerous sow, wash out a sow to center data of butcher ground butcher to show according to what agricultural country ministry monitors, in Feburary, sow butcher measures 89356, annulus comparing drops 43.14% .
So, feburary, live pig gives column amount normally, the sow eliminates a capacity annulus comparing all drops considerably, but does amount of livestock on hand of can quantity of live pig amount of livestock on hand, numerous sow measure annulus comparing to drop extent why relatively expanded further in January?
No matter be quantity of live pig amount of livestock on hand or quantity of amount of livestock on hand of can numerous sow, those who affect its to change is main have tripartite side, give column normally (butcher) , blame is normal fall into disuse, enter (young pig filling column, mothball deserve to turn first can numerous) . So quantity of amount of livestock on hand exceeded in Feburary anticipate drop, because give column to decrease normally, after the reason may depend on two, one may be epidemic situation the death that cause or fall into disuse super- anticipate, one is young pig supply is mixed what the sow produces first is many decrease, after that two, no matter be which perhaps hold concurrently and have, its are affected more will far-reaching.
Be based on above, march, although pig price soares, breed already fast make up the deficits and get surpluses to enter higher profit interval even, but quantity of quantity of live pig amount of livestock on hand, amount of livestock on hand of can numerous sow still continues to glide likely, produce can go changing still will continue, although import a quantity to have constant growth, prospective market supplies tight situation change hard.
This also is price of near future pig brief callback 4, restart 5 days quickly rise, innovate again tall, pork drop two days continuously the prime cause that stops to pick up quickly again. No matter be short-term,still be medium long-term, pig price has been formed go up easily to drop hard posture. Pig price was defeated likely even in the round in March 8, but to raising pig person for, still need to be carefully on, after all epidemic situation menace still is in, city still is put in uncertainty after, no matter be a column,still be filling column, need reason to treat.
