: 218 years first half of the year, composition of stock raising region and manufacturing structure continue to optimize, animal produce supply demand relations is improved somewhat, the price is seasonal begin to pick up stage by stage after fall after a rise, breed benefit to rise steadily. But specific plant to each cultivate present the state that give endless however and identical, breed made money first half of the year? How to look to second half of the year? How to adjust on production?
Stock raising of agricultural country ministry manages place of analysis of statistic of trade of terminal of pasturage of place of the analysis that monitor, whole nation invites stock raising of agricultural country ministry to monitor early-warning expert group, in the light of broad farm (door) the problem of the care undertook be solutioned in detail, print gives our newspaper now the hope can be right broad breed aquatics door help somewhat.
Group of expert of the early-warning of industry of live pig live pig that monitor is chief expert Wang Zuli:
Sex of pig price level picks up but overall supply still slant comfortable
Since this year, hog market is small from beginning to end fan move. Monitor according to agricultural country ministry, in January 2018 - countrywide vivid pig is average in May the price by 15.25 yuan of January / kilogram fall reach 10.57 yuan of May / kilogram, every kilograms drop 4.68 yuan, fall amount to 30.7% . Although price of vivid in June pig has pick up, but extent was not amounted to anticipate, live pig breed aquatics still is in deepness deficit interval. By add authority to be calculated on average, 2018 first half of the year, breed door deficit of pig of a commodity controls every column 70 yuan.
Of live pig price dropped what to kind of influence bring to the live pig industry of our country ceaselessly? With what kind of attitude will the hog market of second half of the year move? Recently, the author interviewed industry of deputy researcher of economy of agriculture of Chinese agriculture academy of sciences and development institute, live pig to monitor early-warning expert group with respect to pertinent question chief expert Wang Zuli.
Produce can adjust present differentiation state, small medicinal powder door produce can contractive
Wang Zuli expresses, suffer breed deficit influence, amount of livestock on hand of countrywide live pig and amount of livestock on hand of can numerous sow are overall show downtrend.
The 400 counties data that monitor shows agricultural country ministry, in June 2018 live pig amount of livestock on hand relatively dropped in January 2.9% , relatively the corresponding period dropped 2017 1.8% ; Amount of livestock on hand of can numerous sow relatively dropped in January 4.1% , relatively the corresponding period dropped 2017 2.9% . "Those who deserve attention is, the farm of different dimensions (door) produce in epicycle live pig a differentiation state presents in can be being adjusted, large-scale farm is produced can continue outspread, in miniature farm (door) produce can contract somewhat. In miniature farm (door) produce can contract somewhat..
Breed efficiency promotion
In last few years, efficiency of live pig breed aquatics promotes quickly continuously. The 400 counties data that monitor shows agricultural country ministry, countrywide live pig gives column to be weighed alive by 2008 108 kilograms or so, those who increase to 2017 122 kilograms or so, exceed 124 kilograms on average first half of the year 2018 again. Every can numerous sow is average and annual offer appear on the market fat pig is counted by 2008 13 or so, increase to 2017 16 or so, predicted to be able to amount to 17 2018.
Wang Zuli thinks, "Accordingly, although live pig amount of livestock on hand reachs amount of livestock on hand of can numerous sow to drop, but pork crop still increases somewhat compared to the same period first half of the year. This also is a when cause live pig price to drop main reason. This also is a when cause live pig price to drop main reason..
Value of pig of second half of the year is total prep above first half of the year
Enter since July, live pig price begins to appear piece pick up posture. The data that monitor shows, price of live pig of area of near future part is close to 14 yuan / kilogram, the market is hopeful mood gradually thick.
Wang Zuli expresses, second half of the year is pork consumption busy season, value of vivid pig of predicting later period is total pick up, but the posture with hog market overall and full supply demand relations does not have a change, the last ten-day of a month in September may experience a depreciating process even, the possibility that pig price rebounds considerably is not large. Hope farm (door) can reasonable arrangement gives column rhythm, cannot press column blindly, use up risk of quantity avoid market.
Group of expert of the early-warning of industry of egg egg chicken that monitor is chief cloud of expert Xu laurel:
Breed profit will progressively and cut
2017, egg chicken market appears a polarization, egg chicken also becomes market attention to spend one of highest breed. Egg price fell continuously first half of the year last year, arrive all the time after August, as breed door move reduction in production considerably can, the egg supplies superfluous situation to get turning round, the price begins to pick up. A what kind of position does the egg chicken market that this year present again? Group of expert of the early-warning of industry of chicken of professor of college of science and technology of animal of Chinese agriculture college, egg that monitor is chief cloud of expert Xu laurel introduced relevant case.
Egg chicken is produced can adjust reach the designated position
Xu Guiyun introduces, egg chicken is produced can decrease through the excessive attune 2017, restore continuously first half of the year this year. According to monitoring, egg chicken is produced before April can be in the history all the time low, laying hen amount of livestock on hand and egg output all grew 4.1% compared to the same period May, first prep above is close 3 years of average, laying hen amount of livestock on hand and egg crop continued to restore June, grow respectively compared to the same period 7.4% with 7.9% . Crop increases at the same time demand keeps smooth, at present supply and demand of egg chicken market is stabilized basically.
Space of gain of second half of the year is cut
Egg chicken amount of livestock on hand was climbed gradually 2018 litre, predict amount of livestock on hand reached the peak inside year September, produce can will be in level of on the high side. Increase ceaselessly as a result of feed cost at the same time, gain space is progressively and cut.
This year second half of the year, the mothball chicken of early days filling column will leave in succession produce, a few exceed field of dimensions of large egg chicken to also will throw operation, chicken of later period egg is produced can will increase continuously. But consider the portion is mothball in June 2018 gallinaceous amount of livestock on hand still under average of nearly 3 years of the corresponding period, so if this year breed aquatics of second half of the year door fill not blindly column, predict egg chicken aquaculture still can maintain better gains 2019. But if second half of the year fills this year,column is achieved last year level, criterion amount of livestock on hand of laying hen of second half of the year will appear 2019 superfluous, egg price will enter passageway of be issued to lower levels.
