Core clew: If water overflows golden hill, orgiastic briefer, turn on the water temporarily bright, the result is very miserable.
Most be afraid of, the world is abrupt and quiet.
On March 21 before dawn, cloth of beautiful couplet Chu Xuan keeps federal fund interest rate inside 2.25%-2.50% target interval.
Although be not added,cease accord with the market to anticipate, but predict annual is not added this year breath, and be in will stop to shrink this year in September watch, exceeded the market to anticipate.
In December 2018 discuss news conference, beautiful at that time couplet store anticipating is to be added this year cease twice, anticipate suddenly however now do not add this year breath.
Do not add not only breath, stop to shrink ahead of schedule even even watch.
All the time since, beautiful couplet store practice and market anticipate almost consistent, execute namely have expect policy, reduce market wave motion, but exceed completely however this the market anticipates.
The most terrible is not to have anticipated slowdown, do not have expectant bring to a halt however.
1
Have anticipate a specification everything is in can accuse limits in, but did not anticipate, meant everything to cannot have accused a bit, need to be changed temporarily.
3 short lunar time, what does the United States produce to change?
Beautiful couplet store add breath basis to basically have two index, it is obtain employment and inflation respectively.
In obtain employment respect, the United States the blame Feburary farming obtain employment number adds 20 thousand person newly, considerably under before the 311 thousand person of the value, since starting 17 months new low.
In inflationary respect, CPI grew the United States compared to the same period in Feburary 1.5% , under 1.6% January; Core CPI grew 2.1% compared to the same period in Feburary, under 2.2% January; PPI grew the United States compared to the same period in Feburary 1.9% , under 2% January, since starting 20 months new low.
Besides economic data, still have most the Sino-US trade friction of concern letting a person.
On March 21, american president Telangpu expresses, he will keep the tariff to China, till any agreements that affirm China abided by two countries to reach till.
That is to say although temporary won't farther become acute, but Sino-US trade friction still is a protracted battle.
And general this year shutout leaves home, boeing headroom explodes thunder, american manufacturing industry faces numerous not certain factor, already successive manufacturing industry of the 2nd month yields glide.
On the press conference, beautiful couplet store Weir expresses chairman Bao:
"We also pay close attention to a risk very much, for example global economy growth puts delay, commerce and England take off the Europe risk that having to still wait without the solution. " " beautiful couplet store will experience abroad economy to add fast the influence that puts delay. " " beautiful couplet store will experience abroad economy to add fast the influence that puts delay..To global economy be anxious, especially China and Europe, also let beautiful couplet store feel fear.
Spoken parts in an opera, economic synchronism of everybody went up 2017, beautiful couplet store can accelerate increase breath pace, but synchronous now be issued to lower levels, european be issued to lower levels is more apparent, need is treated cautiously add breath.
2
It is beautiful couplet not only store the pressure that feels economic be issued to lower levels, china also feels the pressure of economic be issued to lower levels euqally.
Be in early 2018, chinese monetary policy turns to limit comfortable. Reason is very simple, as go of lever undertake, pressure of economic be issued to lower levels is in greaten.
However limit is comfortable last year did not let pressure of economic be issued to lower levels reduce, the market is farther to the anticipation of Chinese Central Bank comfortable, lower interest namely.
But actually, chinese monetary policy should bear all the time the limitation of a pressure, that is Sino-US benefit difference.
The United States is added breath, if China lowers interest, sino-US benefit difference closes narrow, can bring about capital outflow. Not only devaluation pressure greatens, still can draw out empty country economy.
Pressure was done not have now, also feel China can save economy through strong stimulation.
But monetary policy of Chinese Central Bank is put in a sealed variable this year, that deposits money namely reserve ratio.
Eliminate fell of the Spring Festival temporarily last year accurate, chinese Central Bank fell last year allow 4 times, calculate go up to fell this year in January allow 1 times, altogether undertook 5 times falling allowing.
At present China adds the deposit reserve with average advantageous position to lead is about 11% , calculate on bank liquidation uses above quota reserve ratio is made an appointment with 1% , total reserve is led is about 12% .
Although the deposit reserve of western country is led,be only 2% , but deposit money above quota reserve ratio is adjacent 10% , that is to say total reserve is led is 12% , total reserve leads Japan to be as high as 20% even.
Deposit reserve is led is to allow a bank better answer a risk, prevent to cash deposits money and cannot evolve into financial venture.
It is impossible to be reduced all the time that deposit reserve is led, at present large also bank is fought pressure capability is stronger, still can fall accurate 1 to 2 percent.
Should fall to suffer definitely after be restricted, if monetary policy changes direction comfortable, also drop with respect to remnant breath a method.
3
Present problem is: When pressure of economic be issued to lower levels greatens, it is after all it is good to take lot of strong exciting add, is ironhanded still reform more appropriate?
2008 second after borrowing the crisis, china once was experienced 3 rounds turn on the water add lever, but each rounds after turning on the water, economy becomes weaker however.
Monetary credit is overdrawn ceaselessly, win the rate of devaluation to run, the people that has deep love for deposit originally also begins to be fond of the dangerous game that shares Qian Sheng fund, hypostatic soil casts barren ceaselessly.
Spoken parts in an opera, the money is loose stimulative to economy degressive effect is more and more apparent.
It is China not just, the United States is same also. Review the history, the United States each rounds the high point that increases breath cycle is in drop, interest rate is lower and lower also.
Each rounds of money is loose, exciting to economy cycle is shorter and shorter also.
The credit data that Chinese Central Bank published this year in January, had explained the money is loose actually fraud is more than benefit.
The increment society financing that soare did not flow into hypostatic economy, be used however undertake bill covers interest, play the game that has capital idling.
Face reality, conference of the Political Bureau advanced a particularly interesting idea in the center of this year -- reform of financial supply side.
What supply side reform points to is to excess supply the industry is adopted be restricted to produce, the structural sex such as stop production adjusts policy, be produced namely through administrative measure can.
Spoken parts in an opera, financial supply side is reformed even if point to now excess supply of financial natural resources and unreasonable, need is produced through be restricted, the method such as stop production undertakes structural sex is adjusted.
On the two meetings that just end, still mentioned a such words:
"M2 of broad sense money and social financing dimensions are added fast should add fast photograph to match with name of gross domestic product. "M2 of broad sense money and social financing dimensions are added fast should add fast photograph to match with name of gross domestic product..According to the economic data of end looked 2018, m2 is added fast add with social financing dimensions fast add with GDP name fast basic photograph matchs, did not go up how oldly air space.
And all these is in beautiful last year couplet store after releasing those who add breath decelerate to anticipate, put forward, because of the United States the pressure there still is in, so we undertake actively very hard falling one round comfortable, with changeless should 10 thousand changing also is a kind of method.
Lower interest after all meeting go the effort of lever commit to the flames, create lever and risk afresh, let China also be immersed in the flood with Japanese endless style to flood in.
So, come round to look from eye, chinese monetary policy falls this year accurate strength is finite, the flood that the market wants irrigates to come true not easily possibly.
The policy that if maintain,has is changeless, for instance sex of reform of financial supply side, structure falls to allow and lower interest, future can cause following a few big effects roughly to us:
1.Building city is swelled to come hard again greatly
Building city is most the capital that views policy, although building city adjusting control changes one city to one plan this year, but also can accept the restriction to monetary supply.
More compact money is supplied can bring about house price to become more inflation of press close to, the house price that house price of future cannot have soared with the past is compared relatively.
Investment sex house property should combine the economic actual strength of oneself, assess the uncertainty of policy even integratedly, e.g. estate tax and empty buy duty come on stage.
Just needing house property when to be bought is right, after all inflation is put over.
2.Debt ox and break a contact in all dance
Bond most see interest rate effect, at present the fluidity whole of the market slants loose, chinese Central Bank is intended also depress market money rate, offer inferior financing cost for small and medium sized business.
Interest rate becomes low, yield also can become low, the price can go high, debt city takes a cattle.
But those who need an attention is bond endorsing is hypostatic enterprise, pressure of economic be issued to lower levels is great, pressure of battalion of already of look forward to greatens, although interest rate becomes low, debt pressure also meets countervail should greaten relatively.
Break a contact and debt ox exist at the same time, the debt city theme that is this year.
3.The stock market continues concussion
The stock market basically sees money and substance, saying path turns on the water without Xiong Fu, below the circumstance with ample liquidity, very low like the possibility that annual dropped 2018.
If not be flood,irrigate, the bovine city that also won't appear to soared 2015, this year A go situation more deflection concussion goes situation.
Like bond, what the stock market endorses also is hypostatic enterprise. Pressure of battalion of already of look forward to is great, outstanding achievement is not amounted to anticipate, it is negative news pesters a body even, it is this year the risk that the stock market needs to face.
4.Gold hopeful appreciates
Gold values the root of fangfeng to be mixed nearly more the action that keep a cost, overdraw the result of monetary credit is devaluation, value a dollar more with the gold of dollar valuation especially go situation.
Beautiful couplet store stop to add breath, stop to shrink at the same time watch, if perhaps did not change direction this year,quantify comfortable, it is a weigh undoubtedly to the dollar, the dollar depreciates to be able to have appreciating power relative to answering gold.
Final finally, dish guides also talk about two more:
In the habit after the capital that is as long as 10 years is orgiastic, everybody is expecting to use new money one round nowadays comfortable will solve now a variety of problems on at hand.
After all, the footstep that should turn on the water only is ceaseless, paper range wealth of everybody also is continueing to grow, although know where bubble is, but also be certain bubble can expand ceaselessly all the time go down.
But actually, every time turns on the water those who bring is orgiastic the pleasure after resembling drug taking, persistent time will be shorter and shorter.
And once everybody becomes addiction, how is final final result met? Can get drunk is among them people pushed to He Fang?
Everybody does not know the answer.
At present, dish guides the proposal that can give also has only: Investment ten million, careful the first, lever is added too fierce, purse two tears ah...
