Sidifen Luoji: China won't be dropped " medium income trap "

Website of syndicate of world cable industry published institute of general affairs of whole world of American Yale Jackson on March 27 Sidifen Luoji's article says senior researcher, 5 crucial ground can refute alleged China is immersed in " medium income trap " judgement.

Above all, "Medium income trap " the likelihood exists far from. This is Langte Puliqiete and Lawrence Samosi are in to 125 economy system the verdict that undertook to the expression 2010 rigorous demonstration considers to reach 1950. What they can reach is to grow discontinuous sex and the strong trend that all are worth regression at most. The China that holds at Beijing recently develops high-level forum annual meeting to go up, the result that system of the economy in the progress that Sa Mosi assessed rapid growth further may appear, the economy that all is worth regression growth puts delay to call a kind to narrow merely " hind miraculous difference " trend.

Sidifen Luoji

Next, right " medium income trap " the inchoate research of this phenomenon arrived accurately to anticipate specificly: Enter the 16 thousand interval to 17 thousand dollar as per capita (with par of dollar purchasing power was calculated 2005) , can anticipate grow decelerate to make an appointment with 2.5 percent continuously. The 16 thousand fixed trap doorsill to 17 thousand dollar is a great literary tool probably, but in red-blooded global economy, this hardly significant. Concern oneself " medium income trap " since inchoate research report is published, world economy grew about 25% -- push the doorsill of medium income inside the corresponding period probably tall coequal extent.

The 3rd, be not all growth to put delay is same. The GDP of a country is the extensive gather of a variety of activities of each branches, business and product. Transform to the structural sex of another industry from an industry the likelihood is looked like is growth discontinuous, this may be the intended result that balances the strategy again only. Today's China from growth faster manufacturing industry is mixed other secondary industry to growth slower service line of business or tertiary industy transform, going up somehow, this kind of change is the anticipation that Chinese strategy balances again result, because this growth puts delay far did not make a person anxious so.

The 4th, the challenge that China faces in economic progress at present is far putting delay than economy is difference or trap heavy good is much. Chasing those who be located in forward position of science and technology to develop what can you happen after economic system? This is the transforms to own innovation from entrance innovation target place that China announces. Although periodic outside the source is disturbed -- go for instance lever is changed, global growth puts delay even commerce chafes -- can cause temporary effect, but pursuant forward position, surmount the culminating redound that this one forward position is economic progress hard together with other country.

Finally, in the decision one country develops foreground field, productivity growth is far more important than GDP growth. Accordingly, china falls into GDP of productivity trap and rather than to grow trap more concern letting a person. Group of a research studies the result was offerred newly to a of complete element productivity a few comfort. Like Puliqiete and Samosi's research, what productivity of this complete to China element grows is newest evaluate a few in announcing to go 40 years discontinuous sexes. But the basic trend that goes 5 years is encouraging: Complete element productivity grows 3% every year to control, tertiary industy grows particularly driving. Accordingly, although growth of overall recently GDP puts delay, but be whole economy in order to serve the Chinese economy that course of study is dominant to add significant productivity lever evenly again.

The article points out, current problem is, china whether the course of complete element productivity that keeps the closest, put a quantity to last from capital the benefit in upgrading. This is very possible. If can be accomplished, new research report of China concludes, 5 years likelihood of China's potential GDP increase rate holds future be close to 6% . Such result will special the anticipation that accords with China.

The article says, accordingly, chinese economy grew the day of 10% to had ended. This is inevitable. But sufficient reason believes, true condition is China yield to transforming to quality from the amount. This makes clear, china will break people to be opposite again increasingly impendent " medium income trap " be anxious generally.