In " price war " reach global new crest continuously below the situation that pneumonic epidemic situation spreads, this week (20200316-0320) international oily city continues to drop, achieve nearly 20 years to come new low. Whether does the opportunity that oil price copies a copy come? To this, the majority on the market discussed to still withhold cautious attitude.
Up to Zhou Wu (on March 20) closing quotation, price of settle accounts of futures of crude oil of Bulunte, WTI is 26.98 dollars respectively / bucket, 22.63 dollars / bucket, a week all valence is 27.82 dollars respectively / bucket, 24.77 dollars / bucket, respectively relatively before drop 20.25% , 23.40% .
Data origin: Wind
Demand side, epidemic situation continues to affect demand of global crude oil. This year since the beginning of the year, new coronal is pneumonic epidemic situation erupts end of demand of oily to international city causes apparent negative effect. In March, epidemic situation is in global limits inner diffusion. Industrial activity come to a standstill and resident go travel, consumption to wait decrease let this fatigued and weak crude oil demand more show declining tendency.
Deflection of this epidemic situation of week China home is stable, much ground medical team begins return, domestic answer produces activity of go back to work to increase somewhat. Up to on March 21, according to People's Daily statistic, 31 provinces (municipality, municipality directly under the Central Government) with Xinjiang production builds corps report to add diagnose case newly 46, 45 are inputted outside the condition among them. The person that condition diseases caused by external factors is caught still is continueing to increase, outside dividing China, 178 countries and diagnose of area accumulative total 192615, among them number of case of illness of diagnose of Italy, Spain, Germany, Iran, United States is higher.
The world is the greatest crude oil trades group of business dimension much energy studies the director expresses, enter block state as more Europe country, crude oil demand may reduce even more 10% . Beautiful flag group predicts, demand of 2 quarters crude oil will be atrophic this year 11 million pails / day.
Supply side, have not transmit interest good news. Sand spy, Russia, United States greets oily city " the the Three Kingdoms is killed " . Current low oil price already supplied a country to create not little pressure to this 3 old main crude oil. Will compare from cost of crude oil exploitation, lowest of cost of sand spy exploitation, russia take second place, cost of exploitation of American shale oil is highest. And from finance income and expenses balance angle looks, the oil price that reachs finance income and expenses to balance place to need especially dene is top, american take second place, russia lowest.
After burst of negotiation of reduction of output, pushing especially dene high oil price and strive for the market latter chose between portion. Beautiful CEO of this A of Zhou Sha spy make express, although oil price on the low side, but company still the crude oil with additional benefit from benefit from is supplied, will continue to raise crude oil yield. And American president Telangpu says, will try to find indifferent place in oil price war.
According to statistic, gram of this shellfish of week United States rests gross of oily artesian well reduces Si Shi considerably, relatively reduce 19 to reach 664 last week. Broken bits hits bank analyst to think, activity of industry of American shale oil will contract quickly. Fill an analyst high to think, although the United States may adopt measure to restrict native crude output, or make sand spy and Russia reduction in production, but offset current requirement drops hard also.
This month end, agreement of this round of reduction of output will greet end, originally limitation of reduction of output will remove thoroughly. Current the situation, petroliferous country is probable on crude production farther raise the quota. Broken bits hits bank and HIS MARKIT to all express, international crude market will be greeted possibly history on the biggest supply is superfluous.
The circumstance of unbalance of supply and demand is in progressively aggravate. Have inside week write with all possible means civil state low oil price quickened crude market from " seller's market " to " buyer's market " change. What can foreknow is, future inside period of time, if the main crude oil such as China, India imports a country, language power will get strengthening.
Inventory respect, according to EIA report, became on March 13, inventory of American commerce crude oil increases 1.954 million pails, not as good as desired value 3.256 million pails. Benzine and heat up in a steamer divide oily inventory to be reduced further. Among them, benzine inventory reduces 6.18 million pails, heat up in a steamer divides oily inventory to reduce 2.94 million pails. Refine manufacturer face, utilization rate of equipment and installations was maintained with before 86.4% what Zhou Yi sends.
Data origin: Wind, EIA
Oil price steeps fall drop quickly what cause capital risk preference, circumstance of this week radical Jin Chicang (report period on March 17) :
Bulunte always holds a storehouse to raise 78040 hands, much, sky reduces administrative fund respectively 45842 hands and raise 28445 hands, clean bull reduces 75287 hands;
WTI always holds a storehouse to reduce 66522 hands, much, nominal reduces blame trade respectively 14748 hands and 67588 hands, clean bull raises 52840 hands.
Data origin: Wind
ESPO of Bulunte, WTI, Russia, enlighten do obeisance to, the crude spot price such as Oman, Indonesian Minasi this week continues to drop considerably. Low oil price caused trafficker of global crude oil " store up is oily " phenomenon. Crude oil merchandise on hand is supplied superfluous. It is reported, include fine can but, the large trafficker such as housing card is beginning hire supertanker (VLCC) in maritime store oil, alleviate onshore store carry pressure. Tonnage of VLCC carring capacity is in normally 20~30 10 thousand tons between, be equivalent to the shipping quantity of 2 million pails of crude oil. Nevertheless the analyst hints, want vigilant future the risk that freight of tanker of a few months soares.
Data origin: Wind
This circumstance inside Zhou Guo, suffer effect of linkage of international oily city, price of settle accounts of futures of Shanghai crude oil continues be issued to lower levels.
Data origin: Wind
Oil of the finished product inside this week is greeted new round reduce considerably, oil price sparks " floor price " mechanism, downstream benefit difference expands on it is good to form policy sex benefit. As a result of oil of current country finished product nevertheless inventory is in perch, so policy bonus still needs the time that 9 months influence to just can be shown.
The city after looking into, after agreement of reduction of output ended in March, if crude output does not have petroliferous country,get exact keep within limits, crude oil supplies continuity growth to will be international oily city to bring a paragraph of new crisis. The effective control that the crucial likelihood of get warm again after a cold spell of prospective oily city still depends on global epidemic situation and economic look forward to are firm.
The US stock inside this week 2 degrees of fusing, spark the 5th times fusing mechanism, of the anxious mood brandish that current market enters decline to global economy do not go. Accordingly, do not eliminate international oil price to continue next explore come the likelihood of lower interval. Investor needs to copy a copy carefully to crude price, beware systematization banking venture.
Data origin: Wind
Article origin: Shanghai oil natural gas trades center
Article author: Xu Shan Shan
