Last week 5, dollar index closing quotation signs up for 102.3979. On March 23 open quotation, dollar index is jumped for a time litre to 103.0091, appreciate than the beginning of the year 6.5% above. Especially, since the 2nd fusing inside past years of US stock classics, dollar index already rose considerably about 5.4% .
Come nearly one year trend of dollar index change
The RMB shows tenacity
Normally the circumstance falls, relation of dollar index, international trade and macroscopical economy are basic the face is considered as to decide the RMB is right the 3 big main factors of dollar exchange rate. Nowadays, get new hat influence of pneumonic epidemic situation, international trade and macroscopical economy are basic the face is farther bear pressure, go up greatly plus dollar index, whether do this mean a RMB to be opposite of dollar exchange rate devalue is pressure increased?
"Look from instantly circumstance, the RMB fluctuates around 7 fluctuation are small as before to dollar exchange rate, showed certain tenacity. " Heng Shengyin goes (China) limited company assistant president holds round-the-world market business concurrently to be in charge of Wu Yingmin to analyse.
The RMB changes to dollar exchange rate since 2019 trend
Since this year, the RMB devalues to dollar exchange rate extent is less than 2% , compare money of other and rising market, devalue extent can be ignorred almost. Data shows, dollar since March 13 new round of violent wind goes up, go up to the world other and main money, especially rising market money was brought devalue tremendously pressure. Among them, ruble of Latin America money, Russia is right dollar exchange rate, already devalued since this year more than 20% ; The extent of Asian country devaluation such as Indonesian rupee, Tai Zhu is close 10% .
Wu Yingmin expresses, the RMB devalues to dollar exchange rate extent is lesser, because the powerful tenacity of Chinese economy was offerred for its,be prop up. "In addition, compare country of the great majority on the world, chinese people bank stabilizes exchange rate ' kit ' the tool inside, still sufficient and superabundant. Still sufficient and superabundant..
Panic and demand drive dollar go strong
It is what element brings about dollar index to be in short-term inside rise quickly, does the dollar appreciate considerably to world main currency? The market analyses a personage to all think, as epidemic situation spread inside alive bound limits, of global money market avoid danger mood increases, investor begins capital fund of angle high liquidity, drive a dollar to go strong continuously in the near future thereby.
"Can say, ' panic and demand ' it is the main driving force that the dollar goes strong. " broken bits hits Chinese fortune to manage Xin of king of division of presiding investment strategy outstanding express. As more and more countries and area " seal a city " fight epidemic disease, global economy growth puts delay, company profit drops, investor panic mood rises. Be damaged to shun money, a few investor begin to cover now; Or to increase cash deposit, a few investor are initiated raise fund. Accordingly, dollar financing demand is in short-term inside rise abruptly.
Meanwhile, the supply of the dollar also is decreasing, this makes dollar market enters supply and demand lopsided affection shape. Off shore dollar is supplied come from 3 respects normally, namely often foreign exchange reserve of account surplus, each country and beautiful couplet store loan. But now, frequency of global trade dealings drops considerably, short-term inside, often account surplus lacks safeguard, affect each country foreign exchange reserve then, because this dollar is supplied,begin to be in short supply.
"If want to alleviate the liquidity problem of the dollar, still must see beautiful couplet store further step. " Wang Xin outstanding say. If beautiful couplet store can enlarge the dollar financing channel between international further, and be between each country Central Bank form effective conduction mechanism, can alleviate the liquidity problem of the dollar. Perhaps look from demand end, if each country adopts bold and resolute and the finance of effective stimulates policy, also the liquidity problem that hopeful solves a dollar.
Future, the RMB circles 7 wave motion as before to dollar exchange rate
If dollar liquidity problem fails to get alleviating further, future, does the RMB walk along situation general to dollar exchange rate how?
"Want domestic epidemic situation to get basically controlling only, go back to work and consumption begin to anabiosis stage by stage, the RMB can maintain relative stability to dollar exchange rate. " Wu Yingmin expresses. Collect abundant round-the-world research group thinks, future, if China publishs strong finance to stimulate policy further, provide the stability that is RMB exchange rate more strong prop up.
Nevertheless, this epidemic situation is big to the influence of global economy and far-reaching, market of prospective whole world or will face more not certain factor. Because this is inside certain period, the fluctuant extent of RMB exchange rate will be increased. Wu Yingmin suggests, here the circumstance falls, the enterprise should be good at using financial tool in management process, be opposite by the plan risk of strong exchange rate.
Column chief editor: Xu cheats a character to edit: Zhang Yu inscribes graph origin: Visual China picture edits: Yong Kai
Data origin: Wind cartography: Zhang Yu
Origin: Zhang Yu
