Crucial overnight!
The near future, the US stock is daily prices of the switchback that perform, rise before today, hind one day drops. And go up greatly in what experience passes 24 days later, 25 days of US stocks are performed again dramatic one act.
On March 25, one trades in a few days, the US stock is performed continuously " leave high low go " , " deep V inverts " and " end dish diving " .
Origin: Wind
End dish level, because resent,republic dangshen assemblyman puts forward to unemployed clauses " phraseological is revised " (be like unemployed man originally income under " city alms standard + 600 dollars / " level, criterion unemployed man can receive as same as the income before this standard only) , if republic party does not abandon this offerring,Sangdesi announces senator of the Democratic Party, he will " lay aside " American finance spurs proposed law, strive for pair of enterprises to relieve use stricter restriction.
3 big point to go up drop differ
25 days of closing quotation, the US stock points to big 3 go up drop differ. According to Wind data, mark general 500 indexes rise 1.15% , sign up for 2475.56 a little bit; Na Sida overcomes an index to drop 0.45% , sign up for 7384.3 a little bit; Dow Jones index rises 2.39% , sign up for 21200.55 a little bit.
25 days, market attention focus still is in the United States stimulation of economy of 2 trillion dollar plans to go up, because this appears,the US stock is more dramatic one act. After American the White House and senatorial stimulative plan come to an agreement, investor sentiment is invigorated, 500 indexes are opening mark general high low after going, rebound considerably, for a time forward since 1987 the biggest two days go up a stride, boeing is to rise for a time more more than 30 ％ , aviation, oil board piece continue to rebound.
Origin: Wind
But draw near closing quotation, sang Desi states he prepares " shelve this bill temporarily, bring to bear on till the company welfare fund to 500 billion dollar stronger condition " later, the US stock points to collective diving big 3. Nevertheless, path show trading in a few days in two still was to rise 13 ％ above, and Boeing share price soares that day 24 ％ , achieve this the oldest odd-numbered days goes up on company history, get go up to point to.
Dish on the face, large science and technology all fronts walks along accept of low be a burden on to point to expression, according to Wind data, up to closing quotation, the apple drops 0.55% , yamaxun drops 2.8% , nai flies drop 4.18% , gu Ge drops 2.51% , facebook drops 2.96% , microsoft drops 0.96% .
After closing quotation, according to media message, american president Telangpu expresses, congress is very adjacent through spurring proposed law, economy stimulates act dimensions to be 2.2 trillion dollar. In this message stimulation falls, US stock period points to go up expand, nevertheless, when distributing news dispatches up to the reporter, path point to futures and mark general 500 indexes futures rises all close somewhat narrow.
Respect of European stock market, 25 days of main indexes all rise considerably. According to Wind data, up to closing quotation, the 100 indexes when England is rich rise 4.45% , french CAC40 index rises 4.47% , german DAX index rises 1.79% .
Origin: Wind
Rich when A50 index futures is small also rise, according to Wind data, rich when night of A50 index futures dish rise 0.24% .
Origin: Wind
Heavy goods respect, according to Wind data, 25 days, collective of international oil price goes tall, futures of NYMEX crude oil closes go up 1.25% newspapers 24.31 dollars / bucket; Cloth oil closes go up 1.04% newspapers 30.05 dollars / bucket.
Origin: Wind
Economic stimulation plans effect impeach
Before this, the United States PMI of Markit manufacturing industry dropped into atrophic interval in March, the viewpoint says American economy may have been immersed in decline. Does this economy upset a plan whether the effect that has growth of economy of stable United States?
The letter is built in send negotiable securities chief economist Zhang An yuan point out, the policy that the United States' current policy and our country roll out before this has similar place, belong to " fight epidemic disease to provide disaster relief " , the target is to help epidemic situation pound serious industry and medium and small businesses to put add to come down, prevent economic system certain and local domain ruptures because of cash shedding and " be short of blood necrotic " . Let an enterprise live only come down, enter next after epidemic disease " restore to rebuild after calamity level " , economy just may restore quickly. Paying close attention to common the people's livelihood is the one big characteristic of this American stimulative plan.
"Say bluntly, these policy are right economic stability of short-term United States, big effect is less than since. " Zhang An yuan point out further, "More and more severe after all epidemic situation is prevented accuse measure, caused tremendous effect to supply and demand. Caused tremendous effect to supply and demand..
Chen Li of director of institute of plain money negotiable securities thinks, in light of short time, the United States as exciting policy be born, the stock market can appear to go up apparently; But from which in light of long-term point of view, this kind of money that exceeds type of set limit to, special rule puts in actually implicit also risk. "If the United States takes the kind that stimulation of this kind of strong policy and money turn on the water, big probability of other country Central Bank should follow, in will for a long time look, its influence end will give money of merchandise on hand to exceed oestrus condition. This kind of money exceeds send what whether can bring real purchasing power of money to devalue, the final result that supports economy how, want to make a question mark actually. " Chen Li says.
Chen Li emphasizes, "With different 2008 is, gigantic shake of market of be in harmony cannot ignore Bencijin epidemic situation inflection point this is important and variable, this variable will is opposite the refreshment of global economy degree and influence of time generation huge. This variable will is opposite the refreshment of global economy degree and influence of time generation huge..
In new era negotiable securities chief economist Pan looks eastwards, the United States because pneumonic epidemic situation causes new coronal,manufacturing industry data dropped into atrophic interval in March is. "The enterprise cannot be produced normally because of the influence of epidemic situation, the order that faces future to consume atrophic place to bring even reduces a risk quickly, be faced with even go bankrupt risk. Economy upsets a plan is to help dweller and enterprise overshoot live the crisis, prevent to erupt debt crisis, enterprise closes down, but before epidemic situation is controlled, it is so good to be done not have possibly to stimulating manufacturing effect. " Pan Xiangdong says.
US stock look forward to still needs time A firmly the risk is inferior
"Because tentative idea US stock stimulates policy this comprehensive look forward to is firm not quite actual. Look from historical experience, after the market drops considerably point-blank, won't immediately look forward to is firm pick up, appear for many times to relapse first however. " Zhang An yuan point out, "The development of financial crisis is nonlinear, there is stand during, won't develop the level that ruptures in the round to social credence chain possibly also finally. Drop before a few times greatly from now on experience and banquet strap city to be filled with ratio index to look, US stock or return those who have about 10% to drop space. US stock or return those who have about 10% to drop space..
Look in Pan Xiangdong, "Money market gets when great and exterior concussion, will experience policy end, market bottom and economic base commonly. Although appeared with great quantity because of American finance monetary policy now policy end, but have uncertainty extremely as a result of epidemic situation, sex of American economy phase fails or be to finality, but the extent of decline and duration however hard by the market accurate forecast, when to appear market bottom, still need to await time. Still need to await time..
Zhang An yuan express, global money market fluctuates considerably below, field of A stock market suffers concussion unavoidable. Since Feburary 21, card index and Dow-jones Average walk along momentum direction to agree basically on, correlation coefficient is as high as 0.91. But on card index odd week is highest drop it is only - 5.24% , showed stronger tenacity and fight risk ability. Zhang An yuan predict, "The US stock drops greatly, A small drop, the US stock stops drop, A rise " the situation still can continue for some time. Field of A stock market will more and more outside suiting dish fluctuant. To investor character, risk of field of current A stock market is inferior, outstanding achievement annulus than picking up quickly industry determinism is met stronger.
Pan Xiangdong predicts, abroad epidemic situation still is in ferment period, overseas market still is seeking market copy, concussion is inevitable, but the risk alarm that drops considerably should is to remove stage by stage below the support of policy. A during overseas market concussion, predict to also will be in adjust level. Once appear by overseas market, a will continue along from some ascendant passageway gradual progress.
Side of particular investment strategy, chen Li points out, instantly is right A more should be to advocate value investment, single industry and company " long-distance running champion " , have camp namely, the company with hi-tech, stable gain. The industry distributings on, the theme such as business of science and technology of attention of old Li proposal, gold, certificate, new old capital construction, medicine, war industry.
Editor: Zhang Nan Wang Yin
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