: of black swan of crude market the next? Flying delicacy shape not Wa ⑽ ;   ? cannot find a place

Introduction: April will be oil world war the month of the decisive battle of most miserable intense! And the focus of decisive battle depends on oil reserve.

Emphasize again especially dene now: Produce can have promoted reach 12 million pails / day, and growing day and day.

Almost " chela the rear foot " , american respect hurries " block action " : Money grows exert admire to say congress is considering to buy more oil to lay in.

And after Telangpu and general Beijing understand a telephone call, sent merely " low oil price is adverse to both sides " after statement, did not have later development.

Crude price because this open steeps fall mode. International crude oil 25 dollars / bucket, WTI crude oil 20 dollars / bucket, from the Bo Yijin that at present the oil the Three Kingdoms of sand spy, Russia and United States kills Cheng looks, far still not after all (play chess of the first round of rich asks detailed to see: Backside of oil price avalanche: The epic class rich of the United States, sand spy and Russia weichis) .

April will be oil world war the month of the decisive battle of most miserable intense! And the focus of decisive battle depends on oil reserve.

Complete beauty of no less than is the greatest the CEO place character of private company Canary Oil: "Crude market is faced with history on the crisis with first time spent inventory. The price of space of maritime oil storage has soared 4 times. Transport company of pipeline of a lot of crude oil has informed crude oil produces business, oil does not send in past conduit again, shut production rapidly. Crisis of crude oil stock will be next be about to the boots of be born, short-term inside how much will stock issue decide to oil price still can drop again " .

Although be after Telangpu and word of general Beijing electrify, russia releases " well-meaning " say: Produce can won't increase on current foundation (actually, russia is produced at present can have done not have increase production space) , at present oil price still be between the beetle and the block, asing if is sand is determined especially increase production causes.

But actually, sand is special " performance " it is presentative only merely. The real crucial reason before fat marked price depends on the demand that causes because of new coronal breaking down.

Graph: Because Xin Guanchong hits slow down in demand of coronal global crude oil

According to each oil research organization and advisory company estimation, slow down in demand of global crude oil was April 1500 reach 22 million pails / day. This is equivalent to sand spy and Russia two countries producing almost can summation!

So, although international crude market is long-term general orientation is sand spy, Russia and American collaboration, but in short-term appear so big demand gap when -- be equivalent to " 3 inside can leave only " , the direction of rich play chess of this phase is remained with the biggest change self interest to give priority to, and be sure more turn white-hot -- white knives goes in, red knife comes out!

And the Bo Yijiao name a person for a particular job of this phase is oil storage space.

As a result of the concussion of new coronal, the whole world is many the crude oil of have more than needed inpour oil storage space -- from China above all virus of open control new coronal travels, a large number of closing stop refinery up to now, oil storage space of the whole world arrives at present already remnant is less than 1/4. But this is the whole world average level, the situation of individual country is more urgent.

Canada's current oil storage space only the space that remnant can hold several daily output, suffer this effect, at present the price of Canadian crude oil has returned petty gain than tap water.

Graph: The price of Canadian crude oil has returned petty gain than local tap water

Canada sells so that still calculate expensive, the crude oil of American Huai Eming city had sold 1.25 dollars / bucket! A lot of analysts think, as a result of be exhausted of oil storage space, be in a certain when of the dot certain the crude price that produces a division will be negative number!

Negative number? Make a mistake? This basically is the manufacturing unlike tap water because of a lot of oil field, want to leave want to close -- once shut, will cause permanent shut the permanent loss that secures investment with early days. Fall in the circumstance that has done not have oil storage space so, never mention it what cost price, want somebody to be willing only " help " pull oil, let me can continue to produce, pay back can have!

Of course, so doing is to use short-term loss to exchange only live for a long time -- place a hope at predecease of other production business, the spring after demand restores.

And be in in tsarist Russia beauty next 3 months " do or die " while, the manufacturing business of very much Xiaoguo will appear above all " horizontal cadaver is alled over wild " state, the Three Kingdoms that appears for follow-up likelihood combines forestall to lay next foundations.

For example the petroliferous area western was in Canada to had cut down 400 thousand pails in March / the yield of day can, this among them of a lot of wildcat and company shutting is not temporary, however permanent.

But to 3 big, it is opposite that in oil storage space the move space on this one battlefield is returned bigger.

Mix especially dene above all the yield of Russia can consolidate organization and control by the country, the private oil look forward to with scattered to the United States photograph, have stronger " be able to bear or endure get power " . But the United States is helping oil in congress discussion now look forward to and close store plan, turn round in the inferior position hopeful of this respect.

Specific to spaces of 3 large oil storage move. Will look from whole, the crude oil that has had 7.2 billion pails about at present and crude oil product deposit the oil storage establishment in global each district in, have 13-14 about among them 100 million pails are to deposit afloat tanker in. According to current oil storage rate, each inches oil storage space estimates cram whole world to still need to be as long as 9 months. But facilities of local oil storage is full the stop production of local large area that cause closes down to look inevitable at present, especially those inland wildcat are more such.

In this respect, sand is peculiar oneself distinct advantage. Its crude oil basically is passed seaborne, the sand before this has thought of this one pace apparently especially, active " prepare for war " -- already custom-built and buy many and giant tanker.

Although Russia respect is most it is overland production and carriage yield can, and space of oneself oil storage already not much, but the oil storage ability of Russia should see his grow assist companionate space and use up ability. Will look from this bit, of Russia " bear force " not low also.

The data of American respect most " transparent " : The establishment of overland oil storage of American whole nation is current utilization rate is only 50% , but if with everyday 2 million / the speed of the bucket closes store, need two half moon to store to cram of ability of 3 months time about space -- global demand predicts to will pick up significantly after July. Another advantage of the United States depends on his be being produced in great quantities can come from oil of Yu Ye cliff, and the producer type of shale oil can open switch to close with inferior cost. But the pressure of American respect has begun to show apparently: The crude oil of the glad of library of ground of main complete a business transaction of futures of WTI crude oil stores the price breaks up in short time, the crude oil reserve that reflects glad of delivery of cargo from storage explodes full, and library glad stocks and futures of WTI crude oil become retrorse and fluctuant concern.

There is a card to be able to be hit in this round of Bo Yizhong hand in view of main the Three Kingdoms so, the 2nd round fight is main casualty or at OPEC concentration former member country reachs company of American part shale oil.

And from at present the Contango of the market of crude oil looks (Contango is told simply, it is crude oil futures the condition of price of close month of prep above of long-dated month price) , this one decisive battle around oil storage space just just begins: Did not appear at present the super Contango like 2008 -- the curve of Contango is abrupter, the cost that explains on certain level crude oil stores is higher, sky beyond stores the space is less.

Mixed 2008 2014-2015 year when crude oil of occurrence supply whole world is excess, the Contango of crude oil futures becomes unusually abrupt, bring about a large number of trading tanker of firm take on lease keeps oil (buy with low spot price, sell the futures that gives far month contract at the same time again next, expire crude oil of complete a business transaction, the price difference among deducts chartering cost to still have the profit that earns firmly) , go up objectively alleviated the pressure that Petroleum Company is deposited because of oily nowhere and closes down.

However this time, as oil storage space use up, the situation won't repeat simply possibly, because this crude oil is excess, it is speed still measures class to go up no matter before the second is killed two crises, it may be said is the hundred years wonderful view that did not see. The truth is very simple: At present global crude oil is supplied superfluous be as high as 20 million pails everyday / day (data of estimation of arrange of international the sources of energy) , the CEO that has had tanker company delivers front battlefield report: Tanker closes now store speed was 2015 when fivefold!

The excess supply of huge amount can bring about the yield of huge amount finally to be able to be shut, but struggling before die is inevitable -- without giving thought to,everybody is met the price, increase production of full horse power, hope others predecease. Short-term inside oil price still has pressure of greater be issued to lower levels.

How much can lowest of the oil price below pressure of be issued to lower levels go to? Magenshidanli cries gave 10 dollars / bucket or it is a digit...

After harships passes, attack the demand after come to an end to return to as Xin Guanchong, again overlay is produced in great quantities can disappear, oil price hopeful is in such when nod or anticipate force to rebound.

Oil world war will enter the 3rd bout at the appointed time...