Liu Xiaobo / civil
Today (on April 3) towards evening, the Central Bank announces small bank is directional in be aimed at suddenly fall accurate, reduce financial orgnaization to deposit money above quota in the Central Bank reserve interest rate.
Can say, this is special " fall accurate + lower interest " .
Look first directional fall accurate.
1, fall this to basically be aimed at commercial bank of rural credit agency, country, country definitely cooperative bank, bourg bank and it is only inside provincial administration area the urban commercial bank that run.
2, time is to was mixed on April 15 will divide on May 15 second carry out reach the designated position, reduce 0.5 percent every time.
3, the effect: Release long-term financing to make an appointment with 400 billion yuan in all.
4, target: Develop to support hypostatic economy, promote increase the supportive strength of small small company in be opposite, reduce social financing real cost.
Alleged " deposit reserve " , it is financial orgnaization takes paragraph and capital liquidation to assure a client, put in Central Bank capture " cash pledge " . Deposit reserve is led, it is " deposit reserve " occupy financial orgnaization " deposit amount " scale.
For instance reserve of deposit of Central Bank requirement is led for 10% when, mean a bank every draw 100 yuan of deposit, put 10 yuan to serve as reserve in the Central Bank with respect to capture. When deposit reserve ratio is reduced when, mean a bank to be able to put borrowed fund to increase, capital efficiency rose, mix to city of building of hypostatic economy, stock market accordingly bank itself is benefit good.
At present deposit reserve of China leads cent to be 3 archives, large bank is top, medium-sized bank take second place, small bank lowest. It is more difficult that small bank draws deposit, and the client is medium and small businesses more, the Central Bank is the so closest two years preferential all the time the deposit reserve that reduces them is led.
This releases 400 billion yuan of fund that come, according to at present the monetary multiplicator of 6.5 times, theoretic can derive the M2 of broad sense money of 2.6 trillion at most.
In addition, because the bank absorbs deposit cost taller, and the Central Bank gives " the accrual of deposit reserve " on the low side. So this round directional fall accurate, in still can be being saved every year small bank 6 billion yuan cost.
Answer according to the Central Bank the reporter asks, this round directional those who fall to be involved definitely is medium small bank amounts to 4000, average every bank increases 100 million yuan can put borrow fund.
This round directional fall after allowing, rate general reduces the deposit reserve of small-sized bank 6% , this is in China is low-down on financial history, on the low side also is in global developing country. This explains, the Central Bank loosened deposit reserve to save economy this important superintendency measure.
See the Central Bank again the 2nd of today's big move: Deposit money financial orgnaization above quota in the Central Bank since April 7 reserve interest rate from 0.72% reduce to 0.35% .
Above quota reserve is to deposit money the orgnaization is in kind of finance pay is full after legal reserve, deposit the money in the Central Bank of one's own accord, basically facilitate with Central Bank settle accounts. And fund is deposited in the Central Bank, be absolute safety, it is national credit rear, otherer than borrowing bank perhaps is put borrow safety.
The Central Bank still can be aimed at this money to pay interest, the discretion of its accrual, can watch the trend of Central Bank monetary policy. Wait for a country in Europe, Japan for instance, so-called negative interest rate often is to point to " above quota reserve interest rate " . This interest rate goes low, perhaps grow negative interest rate, mean the Central Bank outward " drive away capital " , let Qian Liu enter economy in.
Of Chinese Central Bank " above quota reserve interest rate " , from 2008 from 0.99% reduce to 0.72% hind, did not do all the time adjust.
So, this is the Central Bank adjusts this important policy interest rate 12 years first. Annual interest from 0.72% reduce 0.35% , strength is very great, reached 37 base point.
Accordingly, "Above quota reserve interest rate " delivered signal, than today directional fall accurate intense, the sense is greater.
Up to last year in December, chinese finance orgnaization deposits money above quota reserve ratio is 2.4% (end will is in September 1.8% , rise faster) , reckon total remaining sum is in 3.6 trillion to 4 trillion between. If according to 4 trillion computation, annual the interest expenses that the Central Bank can save 14.8 billion yuan or so. And 1/3 in this share cash, should meet end " lie on Central Bank Zhang " condition, flow into hypostatic economy.
Adopt this one device, the Central Bank " with a bang come out " long-term financing, be in probably 1.3 trillion the left and right sides.
What deserve attention additionally is, country of Liu of Central Bank assistant president does a press conference newly by force in the country today, said the word of a paragraph of such afford for thought:
Although epidemic situation is right the impact of world economy is huge, but see concussion had not exceeded at present 2008. It is with the stock market exemple, since Feburary 24, each country stock market drops it is on average 25% , dropped during financial crisis 2008 be in about 50% the left and right sides.
Of 50% drop a mark that is the crisis match, so far global stock market drops about 25% , as to sequel whether possible meeting drops again 25% bad still to say, uncertainty is bigger. According to international Monetary Fund (IMF) newest forecast, global economy may appear 2020 negative growth, decline level may exceed the financial crisis 2008.
This is meant, to the influence of new coronal epidemic situation, chinese Central Bank also is in " feeling stone to cross a river " , a lot of circumstances cannot expect. At the same time this also is meant, chinese Central Bank begins to do " worst plan " .
The judgement before me is, the panic that epidemic situation brings is released basically end, no matter be American stock market and Chinese stock market, achieve hard quite piece new low, even if is achieved piece new low also too won't low. Under photograph comparing, chinese Central Bank wants pessimism apparently a few.
Tell the truth, if epidemic situation is changed for a long time really if really, it is meeting Yuan Chao to economic influence so the financial crisis 2008.
In addition, today's news briefing, the Central Bank still expresses: It is not to let the market lack liquidity, 2 it is not to let a RMB " change wool " .
To " whether should reduce deposit standard interest rate " , strong response of country of Liu of Central Bank assistant president says, deposit is fiducial the stone pressing cabin that interest rate is interest rate system, this tool rate of exchange is special, use rise should consider many sided factor. The apprehension that he disclosed the Central Bank is main is CPI still exceeds 5% , effective negative interest rate is more apparent, worry about the feeling of common people, want so " more sufficient assessment " .
Look, saving interest rate lowers interest still the road to happiness full of hardships.
