Shortly will go 2017, to it may be said of endowment canal industry " the half is briny half it is blaze " . Innovate and superintend coexist engage in a battle, like a rising wind and scudding clouds of newly emerging things, finance is superintended upgrade ceaselessly. Especially in November 2017, the 5 ministries and commissions such as the meeting issued watch of Chinese people bank, card jointly " the directive opinion that runs business about asset of normative finance orgnaization (ask for an opinion to stalk of grain) " (next weighing " endowment canal new rule " or " new rule " ) . The near future, chen Jiwu of president of triumphant stone foundation manages a peak to be able to go up in fortune of Shen Mohong source, published what leave pair of investment in strong superintendency background to think, he thinks from short-term inside in light of, endowment canal new rule has impact to economy, have labor pains, but long-term effect and effect are worth to expect more.
Endowment canal new rule will affect habit of investor conduct financial transactions
After new rule puts in force, the rigid cash of endowment canal industry will be broken, multilayer nest and passageway will be eliminated. When the bank grain property is tasted cannot quite rigid cash, cannot enough acceptance keeps a copy, and appeared when net value changes administrative institute to form wave motion, habit of the psychology of conduct financial transactions of Chinese common people, conduct financial transactions produced change. After beginning from next year second half of the year, performance of market of government of Chinese whole asset will appear difference.
Capital collect means includes fair collect and illicit raise, the orgnaization establishs a product, want to open an account alone, independent government, alone business accounting, independent valuation. After new rule is carried out, investment method also wants to fasten fluctuation to penetrate in this one body. If set according to this, appeal of product of bank conduct financial transactions can drop, where can capital flow to? What kind of change can the habit that common people invests have? These affect us to be opposite market of prospective China capital, bond market, bank system the certificate of analysis of each respects.
Asset management new era comes sadly
Prospective asset manages, the pattern of the industry how? The advantage of the bank is channel, not be investment management. But control a venture, control is fluctuant, need test invests professional competence. Future is in endowment canal old structure of China, specializationed orgnaization can emerge in endlessly. When asset government industry has specializationed orgnaization to win out, chinese asset manages, new era comes sadly.
Asset management and trade situation are adjusted can bring short-term, medium-term and long-term effect.
Short-term effect is, the endowment canal product of rigid cash acceptance cannot be sent. A few early the company that should be eliminated by the market is less than with respect to possible collect endowment, be cleared to go out bureau.
Metaphase has a few big effects, an investment that is common people is used to a change. The 2nd, the division of labor of the orgnaization wants more clear, if channel is channel, investment is investment is waited a moment.
Will for a long time look, industrial innovation will welcome new opportunity. In pattern of American money market, the dimensions of capital market, action, influence is more than bank system far. Development of innovation of science and technology and this pattern has very big concern. According to existing bank credit regulation, alibaba, Tecent, innovate with etc science and technology the capital support that gets bank channel very hard is at the beginning of horny animal is establishing alone. At the beginning of developing because of it when, other whats are done not have besides a gang head. So, a country should build a powerful innovation system, if do not have the support of capital market, this is envisaged very hard. Innovation of today's science and technology can have China such achievement, the investment of PE and VC and do poineering work board, in what the 2 class market such as platelet exits a mechanism is fluent have very great meritorious service.
A powerful capital market just is a powerful nation those who establish a country this, we are seeing it now slowly arrival.
Four direction proceed with seizes the opportunity of capital market
On particular investment opportunity, key attention is the following 4 direction:
Above all, we are developing inadequate, lopsided domain to seek investment opportunity.
The main contradiction that 19 big reports say to we did not come to China is people the pursuit of good to future life and progress are lopsided, scant the contradiction between. Main contradiction should issue great strength to solve, a key that the economy this year works is essence of life helps deficient up definitely. Not only the area is lopsided, a lot of industries are lopsided also. What industry is lopsided, inadequate, this industry has future opportunity.
With content popularity course of study is exemple, the China 5 years ago creates the GDP of 100 money, among them content shedding was occupied 17% . The United States how many? 8% . That is to say the half that the content of American spreads beautiful cost is us, in other words, the efficiency that our content sheds is very low.
Today, chinese content sheds the development of the industry to progress greatly, if sort whole thing,the company is put together had been the market prise of 889.
This industry grows express very fast, because electric business of China is compared,develop. This consumes a domain. But express is returned now is not most develop, we are compared with the United States or lag behind, still have the space of farther promotion. Quality of our express little elder brother should rise, traffic space is improved even, the line that run is optimized even, the promotion with their even further productivity. How much to promote? 2 times to 3 times, just can achieve the United States 70% , 80% .
The substance that produces a field flows more backward. We have 18 million trucks now, 33 million driver, wind blows rain to hit, the sun is basked in, quality of life of truck driver some is very poor, also do not have insurance, income is very low also. Pull one car goods to arrive from Shanghai Nanchang, goods waits all the time when coming back, or empty wagons come back, efficiency is very low. Because of the car of Shanghai, although Nanchang is pulled when the lorry that the ground comes into stock to also dare not let an other place, he does not know your Id and driver's license are false, do you pull my money how to run to do? Still look for this locality pull. So, the content shedding industry that creates China to produce a field is very lagging, cost is very high, this is an opportunity.
Should developing lopsided, inadequate situation goes down to look for big ox. Below triumphant Shi Qi many platform present research, not be dinkum any more be aimed at 2 class market only, we are more dedicated industrial catenary research. Be in now medical treatment, big health, big spending, in new energy resources, new material, make in high end, intelligence is made, in communication, electron, internet has special subject research etc. Our research, read the report of certificate business institute not completely, still have the academician of a lot of industries, the society that still has a lot of industries formed triumphant stone to study the associate of the group jointly. Made systems of such a research only, triumphant stone talent is enough the clearer current situation that sees industry evolution follows pattern.
Next, innovation of attention science and technology and industry overturn.
Be in China why head of rich throne alternate very fast, because occasionally the industry overturns to overturn to you,be. Because the industry ran. When you value a company, it came suddenly the innovation on new technology, overturn.
It is with automobile industry exemple, since entering new century, industry of our country automobile realizes rapid development. Quantity of produce and sale broke through 28 million 2016, already ranked the world 8 years continuously the first. China is rapid already entered country of a car, the influence that car country brings is very big. Because the person's behavior had behavior went after the car, because be driven oneself,swim, travel market is an industry that develop because of automobile industry and is benefited. The country of a car does not have the country of the car with, it is whole industrial spending, the influence of each respects is tremendous.
The below one station of automobile industry is industry of automobile of new energy resources, this is " " 935 " the country is strategical burgeoning industry develops a program " the trade that should expand clearly mainly. Look from international society, norwegian, Sweden banned car of engine of carry out fuel 2025, the United States, Germany was 2030, france, England was 2040. If become reality, that has how old estate opportunity. In fuel car times, we chase after heart department car, Europe to tie car, day is car of car, beautiful department. But new energy resources is truckload domain, china formed industrial system quickly. The steam in the basis assist data, total sales volume of car of new 2015 energy resources exceeds 300 thousand, total 2016 sales volume exceeds 500 thousand, be apart from at present 2017 700 thousand target only the Yao of one pace, according to this trend, 2018 target of 1 million total sales volume or can reach.
Science and technology innovates, of the industry overturn, be pregnant with is worn huge risk and opportunity. The person of capital market should find the person that overturn namely.
The 3rd it is to should value industrial assemble and industrial catenary investment.
Take the industry of industrial group seriously. It is with lithium battery industry exemple, upper reaches is fried tall, middle reaches is fried tall, you still can look for batteries to reclaim. The industry of the whole world is group. The whole world used the land of 6% to create the GDP of 50% above. The estate of above sea is exemple, fight quite all the time drop, it is the person gathers quite. The person came, money also came, how can drop so that move. E Er is much this house price is done not have so fight dropped. Coal drops its house price fell, money went, the person also went.
Finally, the investment opportunity in wanting to capture domestic fortune structure to change.
2012, expenses of Chinese travel going abroad is dollar of 5 ten million, this year is dollar of 100 million 3 ten million. It is the rise of domestic fortune rear. Add from GDP of average per capita fast in light of, was less than 1 1000 U.S. dollors 2000, 2006 is 2 1000 U.S. dollors, 2010 is 4 1000 U.S. dollors, 2016 is 8 1000 U.S. dollors. We basically solved problem of basic necessities of life. These year of Chinese to eat, to wear, house, car, expended a family all savings, the afflux of national family fortune, 60% threw house property.
The income that the countryman increases again after can be financial capital. Can rise gradually certainly among the domestic fortune structure that financial capital is in whole China that is to say. Consumption, travel, culture, medical treatment, health can produce a change etc. Include asset end, what is the influence that capital new rule brings? The first is the change of the asset dimensions that puts an amount. The 2nd is increment. So, the domestic fortune structure that did not come to whole China is fluctuant in the center, can find tremendous investment opportunity.
