American economy may be in the beauty couplet store appropriate without enough firepower be on the wane is marched toward when answering economic depression.
According to the view that banquet of Rob spy · forces nobel prize gainer, the risk of economic depression is true, and the earliest likelihood was met 2019 come.
Face the uncertainty that the commerce in the United States negotiates, company profit forecasts aggravation and global economy growth to put delay, whether can American economy appear atrophy has become one of topics with the most popular investor. This also brings about the bovine city that American stock market lasts this nearly 10 years to ended in December 2018 almost.
"2019 or the possibility of economic depression rose somewhat it seems that 2020 " , this Yale economics professor is in Florida InsideETFs conference expresses in panel discussion last time, "These evidence show people is very afraid. Current bovine city also is the longest on stock market history. " he expresses, "Having a kind of thinking is, should arrogant city can end very quickly. Should arrogant city can end very quickly..
Peng Bo investigates economist to point out, the possibility of economic depression of 12 lunar happening is future 25% . Beautiful couplet store chairman Jerome Powel expressed than the city in close cc on Feburary 12 local time, "We did not experience the possibility of economic depression to had lifted. "We did not experience the possibility of economic depression to had lifted..
The Jeffrey Sherman of officer of deputy presiding investment of DoubleLine Capital LP expresses, the controversy that having makes attention market how mutual correlation becomes more important. He expresses, compare with photograph of near future history, interest rate appears taller, we had seen company profit margin drops somewhat, and GDP increase rate may put delay to climate standard -- adjacent 2% . Sherman expresses in panel discussion, from investment point of view character, a few shares need in the combination of everybody, they can " more careful " . "Company profit and market sentiment experienced summit summit hour, " Sherman expresses, "The problem became, if why American enterprise makes response in this phase? This looks not terrible. This looks not terrible..
Banquet is strapped and DoubleLine relationship is long. DoubleLine Xilezeng is strong model CAPE fund invests its much capital a fixed income to invest combination, use at the same time derive a tool to be based on banquet to strap an index that found to come the grail stock that invest in is underestimated. Rank according to Peng Bo, this fund was rolled out 2013, the outstanding achievement that comes 5 years runs won the person of the same trade of 99% .
The city after this classics cycle was being developed to adjust before banquet is strapped in 30 years is filled with rate (CAPE) index, in its the company profit that 10 years use in computation measures value of stock market appraise. Banquet is strapped express, this index is in about at present 30 times the left and right sides, this is " very tall " level, considering this number especially is the history about double of average level. However, look into future, this rate just should fall because of time -- the worst gain during financial crisis should be very sharp meet no longer plan into index.
Banquet is strapped express, "This does not mean you to want to anticipate negative redound " .
Paul Krugman of another nobel prize winner expresses, american economy may be in the beauty couplet store appropriate without enough firepower be on the wane is marched toward when answering economic depression.
Krugman is in enlighten do obeisance to accept Peng Bo TV to interview say: "Minor problem appears to be being accumulated, we answer a mechanism without good policy. We answer a mechanism without good policy..
The adverse factor that economy faces makes beautiful couplet store suspended its adding breath cycle in January, krugman expresses, this are periodic from at the beginning never " be based on data " . "Continueing to move interest rate is a bad idea really it seems that, " his complement says.
Foreground of economy of predicting United States is not one person of Krugman bleakly. The investigation that Du Ke university announced in December 2018 shows, the presiding and financial chief inspector of American enterprise predicts the United States will be immersed in decline inside two years overwhelmingly.
"I do not have so exact time, but it seems that probable, " Krugman says.
Although Krugman predicts degree won't resemble 2008 the crisis in that way, but the decision-making layer that he expresses Washington will hard keep within limits is large-scale concussion. This speak bluntly criticizes Telangpu governmental economist expresses, see the United States leads a layer hard " make a response with quick way " .
"Apparent our circumstance is worsening, " he points out the public debt 2008 is inferior and have at that time " a lot of spaces " reduce interest rate. "When we are immersed in the crisis last, have quite outstanding leader layer. Have quite outstanding leader layer..
Outspread read A: Beautiful couplet store add breath cycle to enter end gradually, a hard reality is placed before
Beautiful couplet store cease to be being added further recently hold in the arms with wait-and-see footing, protruding shows the reality of a regret making a person, namely couplet store resisting the tool that decline respect can employ is little once upon a time.
"The apparent change of monetary policy strategy brings about personage of a few observation to oppugn beautiful couplet store whether to fluctuate to recent market make excessive response, " Pacific Investment Management Co. The Tiffany Wilding of LLC is written in rich guest. "Very much now beautiful couplet store the official thinks, current federal fund interest rate (2.25% to 2.5% interval) the final standard that big probability is this one cycle, and this interval is apparent under the anticipation before their majority person. And this interval is apparent under the anticipation before their majority person..
On one hand, beautiful couplet store to answer economy low confuse the preparation with was done better. What differ with Europe and Japanese Central Bank is, beautiful couplet store already moved interest rate from 0 levels, so they have through lowering interest in order to carry brace up the space of credit. In addition, beautiful couplet store cut still balance sheet, if economy glides really, they have a space to buy bond in a large-scale.
However, reality is interest rate can stay probably in far under the history the level of normal level, this means beautiful couplet store pass the dimensional decrescent that loosens policy to grow in order to promote economy.
Here setting falls, beautiful couplet store the policy framework that plans to talked about its to did not come 2019. San Francisco couplet store president Mary Daly alludes beautiful couplet before this store may consider to buy bond as a kind of groovier tools, is not use in period of 0 interest rate only. The Wilding of Pimco thinks, inflationary target is made also may be one of equipment choosing tools. This is new York couplet store a point of view that president John Williams often offers. Affirm foregone is beautiful couplet at present store the news that announce: Namely beautiful couplet store will heavy appraise its strategy, tool and communication mechanism, delibrate meeting will be held in Chicago in June. They plan to announce findings when flow ends.
A crucial question is, put delay again in economy before, beautiful couplet store whether time is started afresh answer program. The researcher of Oxford economy institute expresses, look from the United States, England, Germany and euro area data, take the place of from 1950 (Europe is acting 1970) in 22 economic depression since, having 12 times is after policy interest rate reachs peak value arrive inside 3 quarters happen. This does not mean beautiful couplet store can cause economic depression, but show they prevent them very hard really.
Beautiful couplet store whether to think they had completed this cycle really? So far, officials still are put in difference it seems that, a lot of people appear to be withheld somewhat. The economy that policy constitutor plans to was released on March 20 forecasts a summary, may provide more comprehensive clue for the market.
Beautiful couplet store chairman Jerome Powel expresses, american economy " driving " , but completely beautiful each district did not experience its gain equally.
"Today, the data of national level shows economy is powerful, " Bao power Er established an university to express to the student in Mississippi cereal administrative division on Feburary 12. "Unemployment rate is close to half century low, economy yields to grow with steady rate. Economy yields to grow with steady rate..
The place that Bao power Er publishs an address is the city is compared in close cc the Yidabeina of Li Fule county, the unemployment rate December 2018 is place 7.3% , double be countrywide average level almost. Bao power Er says: "We know, be in a few areas, include a lot of a rural area, people did not experience the prosperity of same rate. " he says, beautiful couplet store the monetary policy that can be a mission through be being stabilized in order to support the largest obtain employment and price will provide a help.
This is come to the beauty at least 20 years couplet store the chairman visits the 2nd impoverished city of American first Mixixibi, and to audience introduction Bao Wei the person of Er says, visit Mixixibi from acting 1960 Kennedy since delta area, bao power Er is the most important caller.
Beautiful couplet store alluded in January, had finished inside period of time at least add breath, and be being decreased hold bond side to have flexibility. And 2018 when the end of the year, committee of federal open market (FOMC) returns apt to tighten up monetary policy. The regression of tendency of this kind of policy caused money market to rise extensively.
Bao power Er is some earlier time shows to students in the speech, officials " do not think the possibility of economic depression is elevatory. Officials " do not think the possibility of economic depression is elevatory..
Outspread read B: Gelinsipan is right American budget deficit " exceeding unbalance " cause inflation finally to issue a warning
Although the politician of two parties of American is climbed to above of 1 trillion dollar to budget deficit,rise to basically keep silence, but before beautiful couplet store Gelinsipan says chairman Allan · , the state of this kind of unmanned attention won't be abiding.
"This is the situation of an exceeding unbalance, " came 1987 beautiful couplet is led during 2006 store Gelinsipan expresses when accepting a phone to interview. "Be in political, budget deficit nots matter really. Important is sequential. Important is sequential..
To Gelinsipan of 92 years old, what make a person finally anxious is inflation. Last time the budget deficit that the United States faces so vast scope or after ending 2009 in economic depression. American economy is in the 10th outspread year now, obtain employment market is the 20 centuries are the most nervous condition since 60 time.
At present American inflation is in control, newest data may show inflation reachs the most moderate level since 2016. But, if investor begins to fear American defray will spur price pressure, they may reduce American national debt buy an amount, and meanwhile, a of demand of American national debt main source -- international buys the home -- demand has exceeded now to fall.
"When only budget deficit causes inflation finally as always, political system just is met make response, " Gelinsipan expresses. "The beginning that we see sluggish bilges now, but we still do not have that degree, " he says. According to congress budget office forecast, in 2022 financial year, american federal budget deficit will exceed 1 trillion dollar. The first of the president whole financial year is held the position of in Donald Telangpu, although decreased duty to promote economic growth, but budget deficit still raises 779 billion dollar, was 2012 the top level since. Below the condition that adds in welfare defray and interest expenses, american federal budget deficit has been over the orbit of ceaseless aggravation.
Finance state go from bad to worse, plus beautiful couplet store cut a balance sheet, bring about American Ministry of finance to issued national debt frontal promotion to come completely 2018 1.34 trillion dollar, was 2017 double much. Express in a report that month of Beth Hammack 1 of chairman of advisory committee of loan of Ministry of finance is growing exert admire to the Ministry of finance, in future 10 years, the debt demand of American government may exceed 12 trillion dollar.
Outspread read C: Politic division Wilson gives out Magenshidanli warning, "Profit decline is occurrent "
Season backside signs up for in red-blooded money, it is the trend of a ceaseless aggravation, and Magenshidanli thinks this climate is turned round very hard.
Division Mike Wilson points out strategy of stock of this company presiding United States, what this trend points to is wall street to mark general 500 indexes component company 2019 of profit forecast. The analyst that Peng Bo dogs is right profit was added 2019 fast anticipate for 5.4% , already under 7.7% January, but Wilson warning says, this still too tall, his forecast had reduced to 1% .
This politic division ever forecasted annual profit to grow 4.3% before this, but express nowadays, season of present wealth newspaper had confirmed what two quarters profit glides he is successive forecast. Although 500 indexes are in mark general,go all around in rise nearly 4% , hopeful is obtained what money signs up for season since 2014 is highest all around go up, but analysts are anticipating at what cut down them. Accordingly, of enterprise of predicting United States first when profit comes to experience 3 years first quarter negative growth.
"The speed that gain ebbs anticipates than us even fast, " Wilson is written in client report. "Profit decline is occurrent. "Profit decline is occurrent..
Although Wilson is right company profit is so not hopeful, but he still holds to him to be opposite mark general of 500 indexes forecast, predict to receive a reply 2750 a little bit end of the year, because inferior interest rate bears stock appraise cost. Further gain is forecasted reduce and do not mean share price to drop certainly, but investor should be queasy ready-made, because Magenshidanli edits to going,periodic research makes clear, in outstanding achievement mood low when confusing, market fluctuation tends expand.
"This kind of gain puts delay to may produce actual chain reaction to company action, be like defray and invite applications for a job, this brings pressure to economic growth further, " he says. "No matter rise in price to still drop, the fluctuation can have rise considerably. The fluctuation can have rise considerably..
On the other hand, kyle Bass of author of Hayman Capital Management expresses, the effect that stimulates measure as finance is abate, american economy is in the most likely metaphase was immersed in moderate decline 2020.
This expresses to developing fund manager, the democratic partisans that the palm accuses Boule lets Telangpu unlikelily the government stimulates economy further, the beautiful couplet that and be in increases breath cycle later period store also won't have how old help.
"Accordingly, when our even if is immersed in moderate decline, I think our delicacy has the way to deal with a situation, " when bank of Bass place water was accepting Peng rich TV to interview on Feburary 11, express. His complement says, level of the end of the year of American stock market will under current.
Officer of this Hayman presiding investment predicts, sino-US the probability that reachs trade agreement is 80-85% .
Bass and Daniel Babich are written in the article of column of rich of a Peng on Feburary 11, presidential Donald Telangpu steps forward to economy the lever that the China of dimension difficult has compares governments of any an United States on the history to want big.
Two people urge Telangpu's group to drive the relation with China to implement major reform during commerce negotiates, is not to be satisfied at asking China buys more American goods only. Bass and Babich express, china must end his " the large-scale economy spy that pursues for a long time and larcenous policy " reach its to be opposite the give special treatment with governmental related enterprise.
