Father says, "To learn increasingly, it is day of caustic " . If say the way that value invests, make valuable investment ceaselessly namely, bring value for investor ceaselessly through investing behavior a such simple theory, so the art that value invests, have a lot of different arrangement however.
I think, value invests most at least can be divided into 3 administrative levels. These 3 administrative levels by it is difficult to arrive easily, be worth every value investor to be explored step by step.
Value invests the first administrative levels: Cheap appraise is worth
In Ba Fei of the famousest ﹒ of value investor Wo Lun's special inchoate investment career, buying appropriate of when it's convenient is a very main factor. And have " the father that value invests " the Benjamin Geleiemu of the title, have famous " collect butt " academic: You smoke others the cigarette end that leave, from the ground pick up comes (spend money hardly so) , smoke on two again, redound of investment of if things go on like this is very considerable also.
Even if the person that George ﹒ alls alone Ross is not considered as value investor so, the earliest investment career also is mixed the value be closely bound up that seeks petty gain. Suo Luosi's earliest investment works, it is to be between the United States and Europe, do the arbitrage of the stock. Alleged arbitrage, the share that there are a lot of companies at that time namely appears on the market in the United States and Europe at the same time, but in 20 centuries metaphase, because the electron trades,the technology does not developed, because of this stock of same company, there often is difference on different market. All alone Ross' job buys petty gain namely, sell piece expensive: Spoken parts in an opera still is the appraise cost that seeks petty gain.
To value investor, I think, looking for cheap appraise to be worth often is the first phase of the road that is on value discovery. So say to have a few reasons. The first, cheap appraise value itself is very significant value investment method. In field of A stock market, have index of a few characteristic, for instance low PE (city is filled with rate) , low PB (city is led completely) index, run for a long time considerably beat the market. The 2nd, cheap appraise is worth first-rate discovery, should have simple financial technical ability only, be worth data and similar bid to historical appraise appraise cost data does simple analysis, can be competent. The 3rd, investor is in very hard cheap appraise errs on the value. They want only enough and attentive, can detect give an investment mark appraise value is cheap. Accordingly, under the investment method that holds poor rate high in this kind, auxiliary with certain storehouse dispersive, according to the investor that underestimates a value to have investment, even if experience is not rich, often also can obtain good investment outstanding achievement easily.
But, look for bargain to have the problem of a lot of oneself.
Above all, method of this kind of investment too depend on the market underestimate a cost, if the market did not appear in a phase,underestimate a cost, the stock market that for instance the United States took the place of 1990, so investor can not have a thing to be able to be done. And in market of Chinese inland capital, this kind of phenomenon especially apparent. Because the stock sends president period to demand exceeds supply, outback capital market is in great majority moment, appraise is worth Dou Yuangao at normal level (for instance the gain ability of the replacement cost of the enterprise, enterprise is worth a level relative to answering appraise) . If an investor is in outback market, buy the company that underestimates absolutely only, so he is probable in very long period of time, look for those who be less than the investment award with equal what.
Next, those who underestimate a cost search too simple, in trade technology and data more and more of informatization today, the survival rate of this kind of method will be lower and lower: The thing that you can accomplish easily, others also too won't difficult. In the final analysis, one of important document with commercial successful society, it is the business that you can do, others is not done (perhaps cannot accomplish with same cost) .
The 3rd, also be very important a bit, search the investment that underestimates a cost to taste, the lock decides potential gain space. A good company can bring number to investor decuple, and even centuple redound, but of again cheap investment mark, also can bring most and severalfold redound to investor only, a lot of moment have the get one's own back of hundred only. And trade in brushstroke after the end, investor needs to seek next bid again.
The 4th, buy cheap property, investor must await what appraise is worth to go up raise, and appraise is worth go up raise is the issue that an inaccuracy decides, for instance a few pannikin of Hong Kong market, very old appraise is worth even if do not go up. The appraise of Korea market is worth, go up in the history also all the time not tall. I had seen many investor that just began to study Hong Kong market, come up can exclamation " appraise is worth how so low! The opportunity that get rich arrived! " the appraise value of market of little imagine Hong Kong, all through the ages is in great majority moment is very low.
Finally, a when underestimate a cost big question is, the market is in great majority moment is correct, the capital fund that underestimates a cost often has a few problems. Frequent buying and selling underestimates the investor that is worth asset, classics regular meeting is dropped alleged " value trap " in go, the money of beautiful petty gain bought not quite good thing, the result becomes cheaply cheaper. Look a few years later too, appraise cost did not rise, the quality of asset is poorer than before, and below the condition that latter can cause appraise value to drop in the price even, rise somewhat instead.
Value invests the 2nd administrative levels: Buy well
Be worth at underestimating relatively, the 2nd administrative levels that value invests, it is to be bought well. The investment that is different from petty gain often can bring the redound of little scope only, brushstroke invests well, can bring tremendous redound to investor.
If investor examines Chinese larch capital, triumphant roc Hua Ying (KPCG) orgnaizations of these venture capital investment, once obtained the freeboard get one's own back that pass in area of American Silicon Valley, with respect to meeting discovery this is planted by " good company " brought redound, it is to rely on appraise value to buy what place cannot be likened to completely cheaply. And be in according to Wu Jun " the mystery of Silicon Valley " the introduction in one book, if not be the industry of science and technology of silicon valley area,be in the exceeding in going a few years high speed develops (actually they were initiated full a new giant industry) , orgnaizations of these venture capital investment have the get one's own back of so high specified number impossibly. This and buy so that petty gain does not have a relation, the project of venture capital investment of Silicon Valley area is very much moment is worth without appraise at all but character: These investment orgnaizations rely on to be bought well namely.
But, judge after all which industry, which company is good, it is a than who judging cheaper difficulty makes multiple issue however. It who judge is cheaper to who judge special and simple, make financial forms for reporting statistics and price a contrast can be achieved. But, it who judge is better to who judge, not be to see financial forms for reporting statistics can do decided business absolutely. The surface of circumstance square field of a company, the observation that investor needs to have meticulous in a subtle way and long-term vision just go.
I often say, see financial forms for reporting statistics judge the healthy situation of a company only, be just like the health that sees check-up watch judge a person only not to rely on chart euqally. The person that a check-up reports data is very good, the likelihood has a handful cancer cell to growing, the likelihood has blood-vessel of a head already very flimsy, or he likes to fight in the life, step on the gas waits a problem a moment, won't show the check-up in machinery reports in data. And the person with very bad report of one individual check, what realising him body possibly is flimsy, because this begins active preserve one's health: It is better and better that his body is met instead. Check-up report and financial forms for reporting statistics are same, can not give the look up before investor is offerred the gender. But, judge the stand or fall of asset, just of look up sex is the most necessary before.
Sex of the look up before speaking of, there is many example to tell us on this world, look up sex is a how difficult issue before. 2007, american investor people arrive completely without anticipation, financial company is put in huge internal issue, the stock price of financial industry blazes new trails repeatedly tall, "The crisis " two words exist scarcely. And 2010, the investor terrified ground of Chinese inland market thinks, bank system existence of China is many and potential the bad Zhang, the track of an overturned cart that wants banking of serious step United States. The result arrives now, went 10 years probably, chinese banking still keeps healthy. The Chinese inland investor at that time people, cause in financial crisis erroneously, below the panicky impression of remain fresh in one's memory, the experience of the American banking that just goes, apply mechanically was in outback banking on the body, and those who overlook market of analytic two countries is disparate.
This simple case tells above us, people is forecasted to what did not come, have how to to rely on chart. Be in " the mystery of Silicon Valley " in, wu Jun once introduced, a person of famous venture capital investment, it is mark ﹒ spits Dawenhao lukewarm, the great new creation that recommends Mr Bell to him when somebody (namely phone) when, mark ﹒ is spat lukewarm think this kind lets apart however the technical dream that thousands of miles people communicates each other, it is pure incredible story. From this, mark ﹒ spat Wen Cuo to pass great investment.
And well-known big physicist Isaac ﹒ Newton, once was in bubble of stock of British Nanhai company, compensate a large sum of money. The Newton at that time, think Nanhai company is a good company certainly, otherwise he also won't bend its are all go buying a share. So, value investor is judging a company is good company when, how can you make sure oneself are certain and correct again?
In going ten years, I once had contacted a lot of poineering youths. They are when the investment project that speaks of their, often was full of self-confidence. Self-confident itself is a favour, having glow also is God bestows the youth's best gift. But, I think in them very good project is medium rarely however, see successful hope. These project or are cause client too little, or is ideal and very good but cost is too high, or is commercial pattern is modelled on too easily, the client is done not have too agglutinant, once make little consequence be copied very easily to borrowed by others, offend thereby go up to compete immortally. From the point of end product, certain success gains in these poineering projects, have hundred only probably. But, in these projects at the beginning when, the person that do poineering work thinks his project must drive sb. to his death very much.
So, if investor needs to discover " good " investment project, the first administrative levels that invests in value " buy cheaply " on further upward, so he needs the following element the least: Sufficient social experience, enough information analyses ability, the choice space of large award, and the astringent choice standard that invests mark. Find a truly good investment sign, positive-appearing image more than 2000 years ago, when Xiao He sees Han Xin, give out then sound gasps in admiration same: "National person is incomparable " .
Value invests the 3rd administrative levels: The person that the law does not have the chance that decide a way is clever
Actually, the first when above place says is mixed it is the 2nd administrative levels, cheap to be bought and buy well, often be incorporated to call by investor " good cheap " . A lot of people think, value invests even if this at 2 o'clock: Myself is in very long period of time, also be so think. But, value investment still has actually 3 administrative levels. This administrative levels is described very hard with a word, its be used in a general sense is good besides simple asset quality with petty gain beyond, any things that conduce to promotion investing value: I call it " the law does not have calm law, chance person clever " investment method.
In market of investment of any society, any, have a few specific factors. These elements are the thing with social inherent place, be changed very hard between in one day. Clever investor people carry clever organization, won method of most advantageous to him investment investment structural frame, investment and investment award. Such investment behavior, we can consider as it " the law does not have calm law " value invests a method.
E.g. , buffett is right of investment lever use, belong to this kind of method. Although be in great majority circumstance, old gentleman objects investor using investment lever, but he is to refer in particular to finance kind investment lever, it is the sort of loan time limit the short, investment lever that once the price of investment mark drops,is about to return money at once. Him Buffett carries the kind of insurance company, obtained deadline pole to grow (a few years) , the market drops to also won't have ahead of schedule the lever of reimbursement pressure. This kind of lever, special to Ba Fei investment outstanding achievement, especially in the outstanding achievement of later period, had tremendous help.
" the law does not have calm law " value invests a method, also can break through the acknowledge with customary investor of a lot of value. E.g. , investor of great majority value, object short line trading extremely. In the United States and Hong Kong market, short line trades to also be called occasionally " this day is bright " , in the investor eye that has experience more very much, large family of this kind of behavior and dish bird, deficit, gambler does not have the distinction with too big what.
But, the short line that is based on value trades, once brought very big redound to investor however, plant even if appear on the market among them trade a benefit of fund. Because appear on the market,trade the value of fund can be very easy be come out by computation, because this investor has some of time,a price difference can be found between the price in these fund and value. This differentia price often very little, arrive less one thousandth, and even extremely one of 2. But, the value of this differentia price is very stable however, investor many a little makes a mickle also can bring pretty good redound.
Of course, as the day of computer technology beneficial develops, this kind of profit space that covers benefit to bring is less and less also. At that time, a few investor that designed clever fund to cover interest so, let go without the choice, continue to invest through enlarging the method of lever however. But, this kind of method is a special typical case however, the story that trifoliate orange is for north of tangerine the Huaihe River south the Huaihe River, tell us " the law does not have calm law " value invests a method, after amending application simply merely, also can turn very bad investment into the method.
As a result of finance kind lever is accomplished very hard proper, one thinks he used 50% lever to buy the investor of stock index only, 1987 Hong Kong stock market trades twice day steeps fall even more 40% in, almost compensate with nothing left (on October 16, 1987, 19 days trade twice in day, be affected by American market, hong Kong constant gives birth to an index to be without bodeful ground to drop from 3783 bits, drop 40.8% ) . Accordingly, should cover benefit investor, even if be short line,cover benefit investor, because cover the profit space of interest sign to decrease to enlarge lever blindly, can draw on disaster sometimes: Company of long-term asset management, amaranth fund company (Amaranth) it is in those days so die.
Say so, "The law does not have calm law " investment method, look be like abstruse and profound, but want to master it correctly, also be the most difficult issue: Far than cheap become reconciled these two element are captured harder. If say " good cheap " be value investment surely option, so " the law does not have calm law " investment method, it is optional. Investor need not the method of this kind of type, still can win pretty good investment get one's own back. And if the mistake used this kind of method that perfect, get possibly rather result.
Above place introduces, it is 3 when value invests large arrangement: First the proceed with from the bid that seeks petty gain, go to those who seek outstanding investment bid further next, transfer to use the any tradition, method that perhaps adds investment unconventional, possibly to set value finally. These 3 measure from it is difficult to arrive easily, be worth every value to investor is gone after slowly and be savoured.
Should say, the intellectual capacity that value investment needs is tremendous, any value investor says I do not learn, do not try hard the truth of dug world and society, still can make good value investment, be equal to a bullshit basically. But, the way that value invests is simple however, end is a word, oneself may increase to invest the means that sets value more on probability namely. From this together, change goes out, method ten million of far more than. Place of father of this positive-appearing image says: "The line is crude one, all one's life 2, 2 unripe 3, 3 unripe everythings on earth. 3 unripe everythings on earth..
