We see the company of this type again!
Business income grows, be perfect? The business income from 2007 184 million twenty-two billion one hundred and seventy-eight million to 2017, grew 120 full times, did 10 time business income grow 120 times? That is how the ox forces! !
We will contrast, is share price top does business income grow the Guizhou Maotai that also brings huge profit to investor how many? Guizhou Maotai business income from 72.37 610.63 to 2017, grew 8.43 times, very arrogant also, but above the growth of that stock business income rises to be equivalent to Guizhou Maotai quite is small elephant became elephant, and above that formula is became elephant from ant.
If you are right the growth of 10 years of 120 times business income special if be surprised, so the net gain that he sees in light of us from 8 million 2.322 billion, growth achieved 290 times, if be identical appraise,the value buys a share, to 2017 from 2007 then you will earn 290 the profit of times. . .
If you have the word of 100 thousand at that time, now is 29 million! If be the word of 1 million, now is 2.9 100 million. . .
My day! ! !
We see ROE of net assets yield again, be very outstanding? All maintain for years in 14% above, especially a few this years ROE grows every year, achieved 17 years actually 33.69% , this is a how perfect number. . .
According to the first pace that picks a standard for, net assets yield exceeds the level of 15% , ROE33.69% is a perfect data absolutely then. Net profit growth and battalion restrain growth also is absolutely and infrequent, see share price again!
Although appear on the market when city is filled with rate is very high, achieve 100 multiple, but because outstanding achievement is very outstanding, 10 years share price also obtained the yield of a few times! Big ox!
03
Do we find a perfect investment sign again?
Oh forgot, we forget see free cash flow, we say on one order it is very important to cross free cash to flow.
We understand the concept that free cash flows first: Free cash flow is company generation, after satisfying reinvest to need flow of the rest cash, flow of this share cash is the specified amount of the biggest cash reserve in a bank that can offer supplier of minute of admeasure company capital below the premise that does not affect a company to develop continuously.
From the freedom of next graphs cash shedding looks, annual also be irrecoverable how many money comes. We know a company is in long-term, if be thrown again more, cash flows the likelihood very poor, also it doesn't matter. But if long-term cash reserve in a bank flows very poor we have to vigilant.
The ready money that still retains industry of drug of a Kang Mei flows also is bad all the time, the result is final Bao Lei. Namely just, card inspect can give Kang Mei medical job qualitative.
Finance affairs of industry of Kang Mei drug reports existence is great and false, empty increases income, empty increases deposit, return share of oneself of buying and selling.
Does then free cash flow to lose be to make a holiday certainly?
Really differ calm. But have the power that builds a holiday potentially.
The free cash that is not some period of time flows difference to represent this enterprise scarcely to be worth investment. A lot of enterprises are in cash of dilate period freedom flows to all be differred very possibly, because they need many capital sex defray to enlarge dimensions. For instance bank, safe, real estate is in outspread period of time, free cash flows even if lose. . .
04
We need to do the business that knows it, what is cash shedding is negative reason? Why is will see this company cash flow first negative?
We read its balance sheet, in the balance sheet by 2018, monetary fund was occupied 18.86% , and occupy most is receivable bill and receivable Zhang money were occupied 12.3 billion namely 57.89% of liquid assets, on behalf of what is this worn what?
We see the net gain of this company, we had said in front, net profit 2017 is 23 100 million, that is to say his 2018 receivable money is 2017 profit 9.4 times, if this money closes not to come back, worked 10 years in vain, perhaps said to worked a few years in vain in the past.
The past looks 10 years to come in light of us circumstance of receivable money change, that part with the largest yellow is receivable, increasing, proportion is heavier and heavier also.
Good, here, we understand very important financial data today;
05
Receivable Zhang money, because sell product, raw material,be an enterprise, offer the economic activity such as the service and should to buy goods square or the money that accepts service square collection. The immediate cause that forms receivable Zhang fund is tick, show your hand many lis one caboodle is white, did not take true gold silver.
Below normal circumstance, why does the company want raise receivable Zhang money and tick? Basically have two big reasons: The first it is to increase a sale to enlarge the market, the 2nd it is to reduce goods in stock.
What problem can receivable Zhang money see?
While the business income of a company promotes considerably, receivable Zhang money also is increasing considerably, showing a company is to developing dilate, but this dilate is to rely on tick mode to come true.
The ability of product negotiate a price that also showed a company additionally is very weak, advantageous position of speech of downstream perhaps client is very strong, or the industry has a large number of competitors to swarm into, because slow down in demand brings the appearance such as competitive circumstance aggravation,create whole market. If because of,not be normal Zhang period, or happen to did not get payment for goods in balance sheet day, receivable Zhang money does business in those days more than of income, also explain company cash flows worse.
The immediate risk of receivable Zhang money -- bad Zhang risk
The immediate risk that receivable Zhang money brings to the enterprise is bad Zhang risk, make the enterprise faces capital loss possibly already, cause capital possibly also to be on the move speed is reduced, affect the management efficiency of the company, at the same time the profit on Zhang is mixed manufacturing cost unbalance, cause cash shedding possibly also to rupture, raise the financial cost of the company.
The friend of forereach debt knows, demanding repayment can not be an easy thing. Pass bad Zhang of receivable Zhang money additionally plan carry policy, the color that still can see a company very clearly is temperamental, see a person like us same, one contrast is to be able to compare a true and false of good and evil to come.
This is two appear on the market of the receivable Zhang money of the company plan carry policy:
The first: Carry inside a year 3% , carry one year to two years 10% , carry two years to 3 years 25% , carry 3 years to 5 years 50% , this does not look to give what issue actually.
The 2nd: 0 days are not carried to 120 days, 120 days are carried to a year 5% , carry one year to two years 30% , carry two years to 3 years 50% , more than 3 years sum plan is carried. What to see?
Plan the time that raise is earlier, plan the scale cardinal number that raise is higher, more apparent also to the influence of this company profit, directer. Also can see a company from this place very bold and unconstrained, a company is very conservative, in fact, the first is happy inspect, the 2nd is division force.
How to see receivable Zhang fund in the angle of investor?
The first, receivable Zhang money is occupied more intense than explaining the industry competes very high, the competitive advantage of the enterprise is not clear. You see the Guizhou Maotai that takes a fancy to a country, did business 2017 income exceeds 60 billion RMB, american apple, did business 2016 income exceeds 2 one billion two hundred and fifteen million seven hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and ninety-two U.S. dollors, of receivable Zhang money occupy than low to negligible not plan, receive imprest even even.
The 2nd, if company income grows considerably, compared to the same period cost of sales also has growth, the outspread level with explain the enterprise is in normal, compared to the same period tick is normal phenomenon. The credit policy that shows a company possibly also has change, award letter period to lengthen, this question is a bit big, the enterprise needs to show your prolate reason, still have answer measure, e.g. the cost cost that raises capital accordingly to take up? Otherwise very much reason suspects the bad Zhang of receivable Zhang money the risk.
Changing the policy that give a letter is a very large issue actually to the enterprise, the enterprise is not a bank, too enough or the financing on the hand is too tight it is abnormal, former meeting creates waste, latter meeting creates a risk, unless have sufficient reason, an any enterprises should not change his policy that give a letter at will.
Still one is plant may be an enterprise doing false Zhang, hang receivable Zhang money to make income for nothing, the purpose is for loan, appear on the market, or deal with outstanding achievement assessment.
Do you ask me which enterprise this is?
I feel which business is not main, I believe you can speak such a string of company name to come, important is, what you know cash flows is important, and should emphasize understanding to receivable money.
Signed up for thunder of very much receivable money to 2019 2018, day thunder billow actually the most important is competitive advantage thunder. Because receivable Zhang money is occupied,compete than showing an industry very high intense, the competitive advantage of the enterprise is not clear. Going additionally the period of lever, of the enterprise live the condition is very weak! Cash shedding ruptures bring about close down risk.
Want to know, what investment needs to consider above all is a risk, is not accrual.
Yield of our choice net assets is high, growing sex is good, even determinism is tall, the company with high moat.
Our meeting discusses more wonderful case, actually these are the reflection in my investment process, faulty, but be in charge of however with. We are investor, not be accountant, ponder over means to be able to let you avoid thunder. Let you step on thunder dispersedly appropriately and do not suffer serious injury.
Those who like is bit OKer an attention
If above is involved a blame Jian.
Individual viewpoint offers reference only.
Small head already renewed layout strategy next week (second new high grade) .
Bring value news everyday! I can choose 6 in comment area undertake an analysis.
