" Chinese economy weekly " reporter Zhou Qi | Beijing report
Enter since July, estate financing encounters in sorching summer " storm of ice and snow " -- estate sends the financing channel such as debt, ABS to contract in the round outside fiducial, churchyard.
On July 13, national hair changes appoint issue an announcement, estate company issues external debt to be able to be used at displacement future only what expire inside year is medium Wu of long-term condition external debt.
On July 20, media explodes piece, fiducial business signs up for estate in equipment, project company needs to have 2 class to develop aptitude, or the partner of 50 ％ above has hold project company not to develop 2 class aptitude under estate, square but discharged.
To be in the room look forward to of countervail debt fastigium, especially in little room look forward to, the capital catenary of second half of the year will welcome enormous challenge this year.
Net of people court announcement shows, since January 2019, up to on July 24, there is 279 estates company to wait for department announcement to go bankrupt in people court at least inside countrywide limits writ.
Place produces Wei of chief analyst magnify to think in, current policy is to strengthen superintend, the normal financing of room look forward to is insusceptible, but accuse to meet to the canal of big financing apparently constrictive, conduce to prospective real-estate industry stabilizing long-term development. He is analysed, from this year 2 quarters begin, of room look forward to big degree of financing and the phenomenon that scrape the ground will decrease apparently, the room look forward to of indebted rate tall look forward to and medium or small room look forward to, financing difficulty and capital pressure will be increased further.
Fiducial does new rule bring about the project of 60% to cannot be passed examine?
Before business of be in harmony (complier notes: The financing that room look forward to takes ground level trust company to be offerred for its serves) the focal point that makes the near future superintend a platoon to check fiducial estate venture.
Smooth old negotiable securities grinds the newspaper discloses, on July 6, the silver-colored meeting that keep watch was begun to partial trust company talk about caution about, basically involve estate fiducial business is added fast the trust company with too fast, too big increment, fiducial business increment mixes requirement general estate add fast control to be in reasonable level, and put forward to partial trust company 3 quarters estate is fiducial 2019 dimensions relatively 2 quarters " 0 add newly " ego restrains a proposal (complier notes: Namely old project is finished, after corresponding fiducial dimensions is able to release, trust company just can develop new business) .
In the meantime, future will carry out strictly " 432 requirements " (complier notes: Financing of real-estate project loan asks gold of all ready, 30% capital mixes 4 card 2 class aptitude, the abbreviation inside course of study " 432 requirements " ) , early days is not accorded with " 432 requirements " estate financing also is made stop. In addition, punish those who adopt an industry to be banned measure to violating regulation staff.
On July 20, media explodes piece, fiducial business had carried out estate newest unified discharged standard, company itself has requirement project not to develop 2 class aptitude under estate, or the equity of 50% above of hold project company (do not contain 50% ) accuse a partner to have directly do not develop 2 class aptitude under estate. Carried out in the past " project company does not have 2 class aptitude, if structure of project company equity ties entire line 100% accuse, allow to penetrate up only accuse a partner to have to the 2nd class do not develop 2 class aptitude under estate " the standard is used no longer.
In short, real-estate project company can be used previously " grandfather class " the development aptitude of partner conducts fiducial business, can use only now " father degree " accuse the aptitude of a partner directly.
According to newest standard, or the project that has 60% above cannot be examined through superintending.
The personage inside course of study introduces, company of most real-estate project is new the company that create, cannot apply 2 class intelligence directly. And a few large and medium-sized room look forward to, project company belongs to subordinate commonly 2 to three-layer company, namely " grandchildren generation " company. Need of these structure of company change equity are longer, large house look forward to is faced with " both ends is difficult " situation. And small-sized room look forward to accuses to cross careful hard because of wind, big already probability is not in the cooperative list of trust company.
Be in early on May 17, the silver-colored meeting that keep watch allotted " Chinese silver protects inspect to meet about beginning " consolidate achievement of the elephant that treat chaos is promoted add up to compasses construction " working announcement " (2019 〕 of 〔 of the silver-colored hair that keep watch 23, say below " 23 article " ) , shake inside course of study.
"23 article " requirement, prohibit trust company to " 4 card " business of not complete, development or its accuse a partner aptitude not to amount to gold of mark, capital the estate development project that not full specified amount reachs the designated position offers financing directly, or invest through equity + shareholder borrow or lend money, equity invests + after bad of creditor's rights subscribe, the means such as power of gains of receivable Zhang money, specific capital coverts offer financing; Prohibit direct or covert hand in land to let money paid for something purchased or received for something sold offer financing for estate company pay, direct or covert extend for estate company circulating fund loan.
Severe leap forward of chief inspector of research of wisdom warehouse center accepts easy house academy " Chinese economy weekly " the analysis when the reporter is interviewed, afore-mentioned policy are to cooperate actively " the house lives to be not fried " policy, strengthened lax to violating compasses financing or financing examine and verify superintendency. The policy that these refining, make a few more follow-up medium or small the possibility decrescent that develops business to win fiducial support. "Business of a few large development is better because of aptitude condition, the channel that acquires fiducial financing is wider. But from the point of whole level, no matter be big development business or small development business, the fiducial metropolis that sequel obtains faces the situation that tighten up. Trade in the estate market of 3 quarters in, development business may depreciate sales promotion with steam again capital. Development business may depreciate sales promotion with steam again capital..
Real estate invests or drop 350 billion yuan
To room look forward to, is estate fiducial does business have after all to its influence how old? Why to superintend a branch to publish adjusting control policy thick and fast so?
Of Oriental negotiable securities grind the newspaper shows, 2019 1, in May, fiducial financing adds estate newly the forehead is four hundred and seven billion eight hundred and sixty million yuan, grow 17.7% compared to the same period, occupy look forward to of room of the corresponding period to reach the designated position 6.1% of capital. The basis is calculated, fiducial financing is tightened up invest real estate of be a burden on 2.2 ～ 3.1 percent. Neuter forecasts landed investment to will drop 350 billion yuan.
Introduce according to the personage inside course of study, fiducial financing basically is used in the phase that take the land. Because bank loan cannot be used in look forward to of room of the phase that take the land,this is, and Jin Youxiang is opposite his capital finite, need have the aid of comes from fiducial capital. Although fiducial capital gross is occupied,compare not tall, but can have crucial effect. Phase of construction of estate early days needs to use a large number of outside financing, later period answers paragraph displacement early days through the sale outside financing, fiducial capital regards construction phase as important outside financing channel, concern a project whether establish smoothly, itself has the effect of prize lever, tighten up what can restrain room look forward to directly to take ground scope.
According to data of fiducial trade association, up to 2019 first quarter end, send the fiducial capital remaining sum to estate 2.81 trillion yuan, occupy than 14.75% , relatively four quarters end rose 2018 0.56 percent.
Wind data shows, 2019 first quarter, onefold and fiducial add fiducially with gather fast all appear to rebound considerably, add estate newly to assemble especially fiducial remaining sum, add fast be as high as 72.6% .
Estate is fiducial and fast grow, accompanying not little violate compasses financing phenomenon.
The personage inside course of study says, fiducial fund use mode of agile, operation is diversiform, look forward to of OK and contented room imposes the requirement of lever, although its interest rate is higher, as before special welcome of look forward to getting a house.
Wisdom letter asset manages introduction of academy researcher tension, of fiducial capital violate compasses financing to basically have " 432 " investment balance, preferential + sub debt, small + the mode such as old debt. "For example, ' 432 ' investment balance is a few have more contented ' 432 ' the development business of project company of the condition, obtain fiducial loan through according with project company of the condition, but capital passes internal dealings, use finally at according with development to borrow financing of project company early days. Preferential + sub debt, small + of old debt violating compasses phenomenon is more ' bright solid debt ' , by ' 23 article ' label key punish target. By ' 23 article ' label key punish target..
In addition, company scale is larger, a few smaller to fiducial dependence.
A appear on the market in the company, can obtain fiducial financing to occupy the company that compares data to have 6 companies only. Outside developing except Rongcheng, other 5 companies have national endowment background.
Annals showed 2018, rong Chengfa exhibits fiducial financing to occupy than achieving 33.8% , financing cost is 8.3% ～ 10.5% . The fiducial financing of financial market is occupied more similar than developing with Rongcheng -- 32.7% , but financing cost has 5.0% ～ only 7.5% . Dedicated the ocean that develops at the residence is landed, fiducial financing is occupied than lower, it is only 10% .
One does not wish the personage of interior of large house look forward to of sign one's name is right " Chinese economy weekly " the reporter says, even if is large house the difference also is not small between look forward to. For instance, partial company besides fiducial, OK still the means such as accept bill of exchange can alleviate capital pressure, and the financing channel of some companies is less, suffer an effect the conference is a few bigger. One when superintend a branch this year " combine a fist " , let individual and large company appear even the phenomenon that salary defer extends.
Oriental negotiable securities thinks, because medium-sized development business still has stronger dimensions dilate to appeal to beg, and credit resource relatively finite, to fiducial financing make expense higher. Epicycle is superintended tighten up, suffer an effect the biggest should be medium-sized development business. Will integratedly look, epicycle is tightened up formed bicephalous pine, intermediate tight situation. Below the circumstance that medium-sized room look forward to increases in capital pressure, meeting choice sells partial asset head company, bring about an industry to spend promotion to be quickened once more centrally.
China peaceful negotiable securities secures profit Zhang Jijiang analyses chief analyst, look for a long time from which, the influence that cost of financing of head room look forward to gets is minor. Standing the probability with bigger impact this is medium or small civilian barracks look forward to. Major state-owend enterprise basically is given priority to with bank credit financing. And civilian battalion enterprise is ensured hard as a result of credit aptitude, the possibility that passes onefold channel financing is lesser. In capital catenary relatively tight situation falls, the formal financing such as mark of certificate of external debt of condition of constant have the aid of, blame.
Abroad hair debt: Course of study of million of big, beautiful, be in harmony achieves constant most
Of fiducial capital tightening up is an epitome only. Actually, room look forward to not only financing channel suffers in the round be restricted, still be faced with countervail debt height. Inside endowment below the circumstance that tighten up, partial room look forward to chooses overseas to send debt, with " external debt " still " internal debt " , is this feasible?
Data shows, 2017, 2018, domestic credit debt is issued tighten up, overseas debt is issued circulation falls to grow quickly at apparently comfortable before 2015 condition in photograph comparing. 2019 first half of the year, external debt of sea of room look forward to is issued continue to keep exalted, circulation achieves 313.9 billion yuan. 1, in May, circulation of external debt of sea of room look forward to grows 17.4% compared to the same period.
Be in as room look forward to 2017, the bond that issued 2018 enters reimbursement period gradually, certificate of external debt of sea of room look forward to expires amount grows quickly, use at borrowing to return old bond scale newly taller and taller.
Peng rich data shows, the utility in the external debt of sea of room look forward to that issued first half of the year 2019 is only again of financing occupy make an appointment with than achieving 50% .
Wind data shows, churchyard of look forward to of room of second half of the year issued bond to expire 2019 287.9 billion yuan, inside room look forward to is abroad hair debt expires 60.2 billion yuan, estate is fiducial expire 336.2 billion yuan, aggregate achieve 684.3 billion yuan.
Smooth old negotiable securities grinds the newspaper says, up to on July 5, 2019, according to BICS estate board piece classification and eliminate city delivers principal part, estate of the market outside the condition board piece share 69 principal part, issue debt of the dollar that put add in all one hundred and twenty billion one hundred and eighty million dollar.
Among them, the scale putting add with Chinese large constant is the largest (seventeen billion eight hundred and twenty-five million dollar) . Beautiful million course of study, be in harmony achieves the famous house look forward to such as China,
According to the data of Peng rich terminal and day wind negotiable securities, future inside a year (complier notes: Came on July 1, 2019 on June 30, 2020) , certificate of external debt of sea of each room look forward to expires in amount rank, chinese constant big up to 3 billion dollar row first place, real estate of whole world of beautiful million course of study, greenbelt, ocean, be in harmony achieves China to distribute a line the 2nd reach the 5th, amount is in 1 billion to 1.5 billion dollar between.
The data of terminal of rich of Wind, Peng and day wind negotiable securities shows, up to 2019 first half of the year, total dimensions of Wu of external debt of sea of domestic house look forward to is a RMB 1.24 trillion yuan, total dimensions of bond of home of the corresponding period is 2.18 trillion yuan. Day wind negotiable securities says, although statistical caliber is put in certain difference, but still can explain room look forward to is abroad the importance of financing. From the point of net financing dimensions, 2019 first half of the year, external debt of sea of room look forward to contributed major bond net financing.
In the meantime, with churchyard the photograph that send debt is compared, the integral cost of overseas hair debt is higher.
Notable is, the difference of the interest rate that overseas of each room look forward to issues bond is very big also.
On July 8, sea real estate establishs bill of the metaphase outside the condition to plan in Hong Kong success in, annual interest of bond of 450 million dollar is only 3.45% . In addition medium 5.5 years when sea real estate issues this period bond of interest of firm of 2 billion yuan of Hongkong dollar, ticket breath is final low to 2.90% , the lowermost cost record that the bond outside achieving condition of Chinese estate company issues.
And a few capital relatively be in short supply, or the interest rate sending debt of small and medium sized business, be as high as 10% above. For example, on July 12, announcement of group of peaceful standing grain, wholy-owned subsidiary already was issued in the bond that 400 million dollar finishs outside the condition, par annual interest is 15% .
Severe leap forward thinks, the utility that different company sends the cost of debt to suffer the dimensions that send debt, capital to long for future of degree, capital waits an element a moment to affect. But will objectively tell, in company capital often more nervous moment appears exorbitant interest rate, at this moment exterior it is to be put in certain interrogative to risk of company debt break a contact.
On July 13, national hair changes appoint government-owned net is released " the announcement that registers concerned requirement about issueing external debt to apply for to put on record to estate company " (hair change do foreign capital 〔 2019 〕 778, say below " 778 article " ) , allude among them, the fund that place of debt of the dollar outside the condition plans can be used at displacement future one year only what less than expires is medium funded debt.
Severe leap forward is right " Chinese economy weekly " reporter analysis, after 778 article are released, outside the sea is being issued before this, debt repays domestic debt, outside issueing the sea, debt is used at liquidity capital provision, issue overseas debt to be used at taking the land utility of 3 kinds of financing already was restricted, can be opposite greatly the overseas financing of look forward to of room of near future part forms benefit sky to affect, but also conduce to be on guard the amplification of the venture of the abroad banking that send debt of relevant room look forward to, active to adding up to the behavior such as compasses hair debt to have guiding action.
Severe leap forward says, the news that 778 article emphasized sending debt shows an idea, actually this also was to give the more clear signal such as relevant orgnaization investor the sense, namely the utility that investor needs to pay close attention to enterprise bond financing, also be to be on guard so the conduction of relevant risk.
Announcement of look forward to of at least 279 rooms goes bankrupt
The letter builds the research report that delivers analyst Huang Wentao to release to show in, the estate that put add debt expires repay the height is in 2021, but if consider to answer carry out clause, estate debt repaid 2019 pressure is the greatest. Did not come 5 years, estate debt expires repay pressure carries stage by stage litre, was a height 2021,
However, from time-out churchyard of partial room look forward to sends financing of debt, ABS, to severe control estate fiducial dimensions, issue experience pressure to debt of dollar of room look forward to again, financing of each channel real estate all are tightened up in different level land.
Yan Yue presents an analysis, because fiducial financing and debenture already were tightened up somewhat at present, and equity financing relative to character canal accuses to meet a bit less, follow-up estate company is met in respect of creditor's rights financing relatively a few more conservative, and equity financing scale can increase somewhat.
Came on January 1, 2019 on July 21, 2019, shared 15 rooms look forward to to release add hair beforehand case announcement, begin an amount to increase apparently from April. And 2018 the corresponding period, only 6 rooms look forward to is released add hair beforehand case, added the amount of room look forward to of hair to grow 150 ％ compared to the same period 2019.
Notable is, true implementation is added of hair appear on the market the business is not much.
Up to on July 23, only Shanghai was faced 2019 2 rooms look forward to released harbor and exultation city to increase announcement of hair executive plan, and 2018 the corresponding period, release add declared of hair executive plan room look forward to has 3 only.
The day of large house look forward to is uneasy, medium or small room look forward to is faced with life and death to live or die.
" Chinese economy weekly " net of announcement of court of reporter entry people, with " landed " for the keyword the search goes bankrupt writ, the search shows as a result, this year on January 1, on July 24, the whole nation has 279 estate company to go bankrupt in the channel announcement such as people court at least. Do not include certainly in the name in view of estate company " landed " 2 words, the estate company that actually announcement goes bankrupt should be more.
Small development business carries capital market in the way of direct financing is more hard also.
Came in January 2019 on July 23, share 8 rooms look forward to and 2 property company to go to harbor to appear on the market, international of China of letter of only moral character, silver-colored city accuses harbor is landed successfully to reach place first quarter, 6 rooms look forward to and 2 property company all are in the others condition of examine and verify.
Severe leap forward is right " Chinese economy weekly " the reporter says, look from policy level, include to be restricted to buy, be restricted the policy such as carry out also can affect its building sale, form finally to look forward to of the Xiaofang in the part restrict and restrict. Partial room look forward to goes bankrupt, also showed a difficult position of current house look forward to substantially, below the circumstance that tightens up in financing environment namely, the pressure of partial room look forward to increases. Below this kind of circumstance, look forward to meets a few rooms wait for means to undertake the project deals with through buy and be being bought.
Severe leap forward thinks, sequel stimulates the aggrandizement that waits for strength as economy, the room look forward to with a few strong competition ability still has an opportunity to rise abruptly. "The program e.g. city of very much now line is good, can bring a lot of new markets to expand a scope. Little room look forward to wants in neither haughty nor humble bend overtake with the society, achieve better progress in the competitive environment with new epicycle then. Achieve better progress in the competitive environment with new epicycle then..
Zhou Minhe of news analyst of finance and economics thinks, look from whole, estate financing channel is tightened up be not is inactive signal, its are helpful for pair of industries " filter " , course of study of to give way is cleaner, also be helpful for reform of estate market structure at the same time, stimulative market is returned to.
Editor | Zhang Yan
Read and edit | Zhang Wei
Format | Francium of Liu towering like a mountain peak
