Be erupted greatly by epidemic situation, and the influence of African a plague of locusts, 2020 global commissariat considerably reduction of output is already inevitable. Show according to the data, near future Vietnam announces rice prohibits exporting suddenly, meanwhile, still have Hasasitan, saierweiya, malaysia, a few countries such as Russia, also decrease in succession prohibited wheaten, white sugar, sunflower is oily, the produce such as the potato is exported. Then, the panic of commissariat insecurity has begun to in the sky spread in the Asia seemingly.
To this, a lot of peoples are afraid, multilateral halt commissariat export, no more than is to want to be before disaster, should ensure first native provisionment. If China imports food to abroad no longer, so can domestic commissariat price resemble pork going up greatly quickly in that way? Want to know, the person does not eat pork, still can give birth to subsist, but if do not eat food, then a lot of families cannot support how long. And commissariat is 100 price base, commissariat price if violent wind goes up to be sure the meeting is more terrible then, inflation will be closer and closer from us.
And we think however, grain issue of China does not have close Lv and have distant concern: On one hand, show according to the data, grain total output reached our country last year 664 million tons, rank the whole world the first. Among them corn crop 260 million tons, wheaten crop 134 million tons, rice crop 210 million tons, self-sufficient rate reached 3 big staple food grain 95% above, that is to say, although global commissariat suspends an import, our country's basic food supply safety also won't appear of the problem.
On the other hand, the amount of our country number of feed inlet in commissariat respect is not large, average and annual import volume is controlled in 10 million tons. Hundred of homebred grain total output, entrance commissariat and produce food oneself, resemble the contrast of sesame seed and watermelon, so, into taste commissariat short-term impossible more the trend of price of commissariat of earth influence home. Consider entrance commissariat influential to homebred commissariat price, just also have limit, have limitation, affect the trend of commissariat price without very great ability at all.
Because make much country make stop commissariat to export, estimation of price of grain of international of second half of the year can appear rise prices. But, our China commissariat basically is to be produced oneself sell oneself, be affected so and very won't big, prospective home commissariat or meeting are in relatively smooth condition inside. But the problem is, our country provisionment does not have close Lv, have distant concern however. Basically have 3 sides:
The first, the youth goes into town to Wu is versed in or do poineering work now, true in the country of rural cultivate land is 50, old person of 60 years old, the country has a lot of land to casting barren now, nobody agrees to plant commissariat, most him farmer is planted dot vegetable takes. After I cannot want 10 years, wait old a batch of people work to be not moved, home is afraid nobody are willing cultivate land.
The 2nd, how defend to the last the problem of the red line of 1.8 billion mus of ground, land of a lot of countries is used as industrial garden area now, perhaps go up in urban edge, commandeer agriculture uses the land, build many goods house. The person in the city should eat vegetable to be able to be bought only to farther place, grain crop needs line-haul more, so a certain number of after year, the land that we worry about to home is used at commissariat to produce will be less and less, 1.8 billion mus of ground are planted the red line exist in name only of grain.
The 3rd, domestic staple food grain assured the self-sufficient rate of 95% , but if the crop such as soja, corn counts an import in great quantities however,resemble. So, international commissariat rose, also meet those who drive the price such as soja, corn rise, and these crop, it is feed of pig, chicken, duck. This very can much person eats not to remove the flesh kind with bean products. So, the crop such as soja, corn counts an import in great quantities, it is very terrible.
Multilateral because the reason such as epidemic situation, a plague of locusts made stop commissariat,export, a lot of people fear price of grain of home of second half of the year can rise. But actually, domestic food stock is enough, and annual commissariat realizes increase production, prospective commissariat price also can carry stabler current. Nevertheless, cultivate land population is aged now, succeed lack person. In the meantime, everybody should take land to develop commodity house or industrial garden area, 1.8 billion mus of a certain number of red line after year are afraid already exist in name only. More terrible is, our country of staple food grain realized autarky really, but wait to count an import in great quantities even like soja, corn, soya-bean oil, second half of the year these heavy goods prices are afraid do not go up very hard.
