Farmer +
The 1633rd period
1/3 of firm 2020 past, this opens bureau can to call demon unreal, global epidemic situation is prevented accuse a situation more and more austere, up to Beijing time 30 days 8 when, pneumonic diagnose case of illness already broke through global new coronal 720 thousand.
The topological features is great bad, a few countries are mixed for safeguard home provisionment produce is safe, took the step of ban of a few export.
For instance, main wheat, flour exports the whole world Kazakstan Si Tan declares the state, prohibit the produce exit such as wheaten flour, carrot, candy and soja;
Vietnam also suspended new rice exporting a contract recently;
Saierweiya halted the export of sunflower seed oil and other agriculture products;
The 2nd old palm oil produces the whole world the exit of Malaysia also has put the state apparently delay.
This among them, it is very worth while to have a signal advertent, that is Vietnam stops rice to export.
Because Vietnam is country of exit of rice of global rank tertiary, also be our country the first rice imports a country.
If the second at the back of the platoon is old,3 Thailand and Pakistan also follow suit, with respect to the import that means Chinese rice access is cut off entirely.
So come, at present the balance situation of commissariat leads China to be broken probably, the problem that have a meal will again protruding shows.
Those who make a person anxious is, besides epidemic situation, still have African a plague of locusts + have an insatiable desire for what noctuid erupts to add hold, to global commissariat manufacturing safety caused huge menace.
Scan widely looks, the information that is like adverse food safety is quite much still.
The result of agricultural country ministry that monitor is, disaster of great this year plant diseases and insect pests may be serious.
Feburary, NOAA (American country ocean and atmosphere management board) release a message to say: This year January is the whole world in record of 141 years of climate is the hottest January;
With the month, "Antarctic Gong Xue " and " arctic firedamp erupts greatly " mount hot search, enter the field of vision of people.
These are telling us it seems that, the climate this year some not common.
Climate nature is affecting grain production, the uneasiness that lets people much a minute.
These days, often the friend asks me, can you cause grain price to rise as a result of food shortage this year? Can you generate commissariat corner Ju Ji and panic of a run on a bank? Am I necessary now store up grain?
Source flavour gentleman feels, be necessary to talk about this topic really.
Of food safety " 3 big hill "
Above all for say African a plague of locusts.
About the influence of African a plague of locusts to native land agriculture, the article before source flavour Jun Zaizhi " press on the border of 400 billion locust, have much horror after all? " had said very clearly: Need not excessive and alarmed, arrive at Chinese churchyard because of the locust of big batch and indulge in wilful persecution the probability of our crops is not big.
But if stand in global commissariat,safe angle looks, the likelihood is done not have so hopeful.
Current, african a plague of locusts was entered lay eggs hatch period, because go up,the locust of generation indulge in wilful persecution died basically also, so a plague of locusts entered a brief calm period.
Current bigger menace depends on, 400 billion locust are in generation on from Africa all the way indulge in wilful persecution arrives in Indian process, produce the many bug egg below.
According to FAO forecast and LWO (locust early-warning is organized) research, what the destruction that locust main forces causes has exceeded U.N. respect is worst predict, will affect inside 3 two months inferior, 60 countries that are not two continent.
Locust group after India and Pakistan cause disaster, big probability is met down inbreak southeast Asia, can give place without doubt, and even the grain production safety of the whole world causes huge crisis hidden trouble.
Compared with a plague of locusts, we more those who fear is meadow corrupt noctuid.
Under photograph comparing, we are most person, have an insatiable desire for the harm sex of noctuid to the meadow, still lack an enough acknowledge.
Before source flavour gentleman ever also wrote technically civil, the destruction that elaborates this bewitching moth force, " anxious! By " a file " those who call-over " bewitching moth " , destroy force fiercer than a plague of locusts! "
Meadow corrupt noctuid just inbreaked first in January 2019 our country Yunnan, but the time that spent a year to be less than, the whole nation has 25 province to discover the meadow has an insatiable desire for noctuid.
Area seeing bug many mus 1500, harm an area actually 2.46 million mus.
Bad is, because global climate is heated (right, it is this boiler) , our country greeted a warm winter.
Warm winter, conduce to a meadow fitly corrupt noctuid is large-scale lay eggs hibernate.
This makes Chun Xia erupted 2020 insect pest of large-scale meadow corrupt noctuid, have too big be concerned about hardly.
And the outbreak of corrupt noctuid insect pest, coming really is not moment.
Because, having an insatiable desire for noctuid to basically endanger an object is paddy and corn, and stockpile of our country current corn is in in recent years low.
Present domestic corn stockpile has the 1/5 4 years ago only.
By 2016, gross of stockpile of our country corn 230 million tons;
By 2017, gross of stockpile of our country corn 180 million tons;
By 2018, corn stockpile gross is 75 million tons;
By 2019, corn stockpile gross 52 million tons.
Increasing evidence makes clear, domestic corn stockpile will fall 2020 to 20 million tons the following.
Corn reduction in production endangers one of production that are alcohol to suffer an effect greatly.
Because, the main raw material of alcohol is corn.
Epidemic situation erupts, right medical the demand of alcohol is cruel add, and corn inventory of this raw material is insufficient, encounter corrupt noctuid insect pest again, meet apparently reduction of output.
Add decrease, corn rises in price, this is very difficult those who avoid.
"The 3rd big hill " , get global mix naturally at present namely the epidemic situation of a great disturbance.
Face the situation that epidemic situation spreads in the whole world, a lot of countries adopt measure to ensure native provisionment enough.
Some starts national stock plan, plan to increase commissariat reserve, some enlarges entrance dimensions, some limits commissariat export.
Country of outlet of many main grain comes on stage " ban " , cause international society to global provisionment anxious.
Reuter cite the word of business door controller weighs trade of one domestic Europe grain, if connect commissariat to export big national capital to begin to restrict supply, in order to ensure oneself commissariat is safe, this explains their itself may face the situation that does not have surplus grain on one hand, on the other hand, reduce exit to be able to bring the risk that global provisionment drops.
In addition, be in the Europe of virus indulge in wilful persecution, because subtense condition adopted cast-iron pipe to accuse measure, the provisionment that has brought about country of a few Europe is interrupted, the dweller is right at the same time the corner aggravate of food the local supply and demand of food is tight.
Ba Sian of senior economist A is opposite Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations this points out, each country people and food of corner of governmental panic sex, food inflation may be forthcoming, a global food crisis is probable on the verge of breaking out.
Not want confused, we are very firm
Although at present whole world already became a pot of porridge-a complete mess in disorder, but to can hungry abdomen this one, we need not too panicky.
The reason is simple and crude: The staple food grain of our country is self-sufficient self-sufficient.
We will have a look at the data that countrywide commissariat produced 2019:
1.Countrywide commissariat sows an area 116064 1000 hectare (one billion seven hundred and forty million nine hundred and fifty thousand mus of) . Reduce 975 1000 hectare than 2018 (14.62 million mus of) , drop 0.8% .
2.Countrywide food yield per unit 5720 kilograms / hectare (381 kilograms / mu) , increase 98.4 kilograms than 2018 / hectare (6.6 kilograms / mu) , grow 1.8% .
3.Countrywide grain total output six hundred and sixty-three million eight hundred and forty thousand tons (one thousand three hundred and twenty-seven billion seven hundred million jins of) , increase 5.94 million tons than 2018 (11.9 billion jins of) .
See not? Sow an area to drop somewhat, but total output is rising however.
Our grain total output is early had been the world the first, but because our population also is the world the first, consumption also is the world the first, be in such abidance below the circumstance of high yield, compare with the consumption that increases continuously rise, still have gap, need an import all the time so.
To ensure rice bowl firmly end is in him hand, we choose " sacrifice " soja, of preferential safeguard paddy and wheat grow an area.
With the entrance soja is managing the crop of staple food grain that the farmland that come out will come to cultivate opposite high yield, it is the most logical choice of course.
So, the rice that we plant is wheaten, it is enough oneself eat, this, beyond question.
Again for say, epidemic situation is affected to what our produce produces.
Current, should sow normally beyond Hubei. Countrywide farmland retains the quantity is 1.805 billion mus (one hundred and twenty million three hundred and thirty-three thousand three hundred hectare) , hubei farmland retains the quantity is 69.47 million mus (four million six hundred and thirty-one thousand three hundred hectare) , occupy about 3% .
Hubei basically cultivates grain crop to be paddy, early rice sows time to be normally by March, semilate rice, late rice is later.
Present circumstance, not miss the farming season, do not affect sow, but the fertilization before sowing, soil preparation may be done not have, crop crop can be affected. But not big to integral influence.
Delimit key:
Chinese grain ration is over all-pervasive enough autarky, and the inventory world of Chinese staple food grain the first, wheat eats one year quite, paddy can eat 9 months above.
"The person that have, of the country heavy also " .
China is the country that store up food values most on the world all the time, from 2005 since, in store grain accumulative total buys oily gross of policy sex grain to exceed 930 million tons.
The staple food grain that we produce itself every year ate with respect to enough countryman, add reserve grain, already got controlling plus epidemic situation, the aspect is nicer than other country much.
1.8 billion mus of red line are not active, cannot move stoutly!
Under epidemic situation, countrywide spring ploughing makes preparations for ploughing and sowing from south spread out like a bitter edible plant to fire of boreal no less than, firm grain production supports policy to already also gave heat thick and fast.
For instance, sichuan province puts forward to ensure acreage of annual grain crop achieves 95.19 million mus, increase 1 million mus compared to the same period;
The Anhui province ensures annual commissariat area exceeds 100 million mus, total output 39 million tons of above.
And our country wheat and paddy self-sufficient rate stabilizes two big grain ration all the time in 98% above, can accomplish truly " there is grain in the hand, in the heart not confused. In the heart not confused..
Below the circumstance of such extremes, also let us see, defend to the last red line of 1.8 billion mus of farmland is not a jest absolutely.
Our country is a country that lacks farmland extremely, a mu of any land that cultivate aptly ought to serve as farmland without doubt, residence of and rather than or industrial land.
What real estate, what GDP, get keep to the side than rising with food safety, this do not accept any refuting.
The global food safety that produces today is queasy, the international grain price of the hype before letting my couplet remember 15 years rises.
5 years in December - 8 years in July,
International wheat price from 300 go up 1330 (unit: Pu Er / cent) , went up 3.4 times;
International corn price from 185 go up to 758, went up 3.2 times.
The commissariat price of China of the corresponding period, also went up of course, went up how many?
Wheaten from 1400 the left and right sides goes up 2000 the left and right sides, went up 0.7 times;
Corn from 1200 the left and right sides goes up 1800 the left and right sides, went up 0.7 times.
Why international commissariat soares, and is domestic grain price so quiet?
Do not calm actually, the capital of foreign home came, want to fry grain price of home.
The problem is China has a country to lay in, while international grain price soares, grain price of home also ready to do sth, china begins to cast store.
Cast store begin, with all possible means desperately raise up the price, eat entirely into, create the situation that demand exceeds supply;
Cast again store, with all possible means again raise up the price, eat entirely again into...
These adventurer discover finally, cast store in a steady stream is endless, more and more billowy, arrived finally, nobody dare average.
Nobody knows how many commissariat reserve of China has after all, all adventurer begin guilty, want to remove, regrettablly late.
A surfy food safety crisis is dissolved to be aeriform, so that a lot of people press a root,do not know this thing.
All all these, be attributed to the autarky of our commissariat, and can somewhat profit, can establish huge national reserve.
However, advanced a few years, still existing to encourage us to unlock farmland red line on the net, support international market imports the sound of commissariat.
These people, or is true clumsy, or is have ulterior motives.
Food safety is our bottom line, this bottom line got now very the menace that Duobukeming says, no matter this menace comes from where, we cannot concede and compromise.
I think, present we are responsible, accountability also guard on the struggling achievement of generation, pervious tragedy repeats no longer, the memory that makes collective hungry disappears in historical endless flow forever.
Who moves our rice bowl, we are about whose life.
2020 bureaus get the influence of fusing of new coronal virus, a plague of locusts, US stock and financial crisis, issue of afraid now grain is give no cause for more criticism.
Return the problem that we care most: Have necessary corner food after all?
Look in source flavour gentleman, panicky mood is completely needless, life goods and materials estimates reserve one day, need not worry completely dried up. Of course, do not have the friend of safe feeling particularly, also can go corner a few food and chronic are commonly used medicine, family is commonly used medicine.
Should make clear a bit, our reserve is to prevent the shortage of provisionality of goods and materials that panicky mood causes.
This kind of provisionality is in short supply, can last only at most time of a month, the country can employ reserve goods and materials to appease panic certainly in a month.
Need not to need to put food this year, where is your view?
Expect to leave a message!
Editor | Source flavour gentleman
Composing | Small drawer
