Dispatch message, information of data of agricultural country ministry shows, price of countrywide live pig falls 13 weeks continuously, so is epicycle pig periodic whether at this point Where is ending? Does the price fall continuously what is the reason of backside?
Data of agricultural country ministry shows, at present price of pork of countrywide terminal market already fell reach 40 yuan / kilogram the following, relatively the price this year Feburary falls bit higher go nearly 2 into. Meanwhile, many live pig breed an enterprise to encounter share price glides.
Since May 1, herd primary share, Wen share (26.9, - 0.36, - 1.32%) and new hope (28.37, 0.09, 0.32%) share price parts accumulative total drops go 6.36% , 4.63% with 6.29% . Compare at the beginning of May, primary share of herd of the tycoon that raise a pig market prise already dropped yesterday go to 17.9 billion yuan. Live pig breed aquatics board piece outstanding achievement is not quite good-looking also. Among them, jin Xinnong (9.38, 0.01, 0.11%) and Wen share live pig sales volume dropped compared to the same period April, the annulus of sales revenue of occurrence live pig such as new hope compares the situation of amplitude under sales volume annulus than amplitude.
Had experienced epidemic situation of African swine fever and pig price to rise to last again quickly after slow fall after a rise, the circumstance of the course of study that raise a pig how? How to carry further brace up breed hope? Next pork prices will how?
Multiple element prompts pig price fall after a rise
Profit is high
Below normal the year's harvest, a pig earns 100 to reach 200 yuan, many time are even short money. Pig price rises to exalted farewell to fall from low, whole cycle wants 35 years commonly. "Last year since second half of the year, want to be able to be prevented only accuse good Africa swine fever, raise pig health a column, have so that earn. According to high point when come on the stage valence, deduct the cost such as feed, epidemic prevention, net profit is every kilogram 20 yuan, from numerous raise 130 kilograms of fat pigs to give column oneself, every profit about 2600 yuan. The near future, live pig comes on the stage the price drops continuously, but every profit also has 1400 yuan. But every profit also has 1400 yuan..
Filling column enlarge is produced
Because breed profit considerable, a lot of breed aquatics door especially big large family with biology safety higher level, the initiative that filling column enlarge produces is very tall, this is the big setting that price of near future pig drops. Normally with the pig grain comparing measures level of the profit and loss that raise a pig inside course of study, namely the ratio of hog market value and feed grain price. Usually, cost price of a jin of porky is equivalent to the price of grain of 6 jins of feed. Pig grain compares in 6: 1 when, it is point of equilibrium of profit and loss. At present pig grain rate of exchange is in 14: 1, the gain of live pig breed aquatics is quite so rich and generous still.
Live pig produces stability
Fleshy price drops to produce stability to enter with live pig continuously go up cycle is inseparable. Will rise last year in November, the whole nation can be numerous sow and live pig amount of livestock on hand stop fall pick up, can numerous sow is at present successive already 7 months annulus compares growth, will grow 18.7% September than last year. From the point of each district circumstance, the whole nation has the can numerous sow of 28 province to maintain growth. This year Feburary, early days is produced can drop the can numerous sow of more southern province is added fast begin average level of prep above whole nation. Current, the tradition such as Sichuan, Hunan and Henan raises a pig to save amount of livestock on hand of can numerous sow to already parted greatly successive 5 4 months, months and 7 months annulus compare growth.
Butcher treatment restores to put in with reserve flesh
Pork price fall also restores with butcher treatment and lay in the flesh to put in closely related. Return to normal stage by stage as order of live pig produce and sale, butcher business is overall answer of go back to work is produced, early days presses the fat pig of column to mend a fence, together with lays in the flesh to put in adjusting control, pig price lasts fall after a rise. Up to now, rate of go back to work of business of slaughter of 5520 hog of countrywide is amounted to 87% , its are middleaged butcher quantity is in the enterprise of 20 thousand above is 2638, start working rate is amounted to 92% . The near future, the live pig that butcher machines is big pig more very, give column weight on the high side. A few days ago, again pork of aspic of 10 thousand tons of central reserve puts in, this is inside year put in the 18th times, accumulative total puts in a quantity to achieve 340 thousand tons.
Dimensions breed aquatics is produced can release continuously
Current, the whole nation year give column the pig farm of 500 above door about 160 thousand, 52% what manufacturing pork takes the throughout the country. Be opposite according to agricultural country ministry hoggery of 160 thousand dimensions door monitor, amount of pig of young of its new student realized annulus to compare growth first Feburary this year, march, annulus expanded than amplitude April. According to fatten of pig of new student young 6 months can give column to calculate, this is beginning commodity fat pig to appear on the market July quantity general step up.
Recently, national hair changes appoint, agricultural country ministry combines print and distribute " the executive opinion that develops hog production and relevant property about supporting civilian battalion industry " , solve what its are faced with to wait for a problem with the ground, credit. The file puts forward to build loan of industry of live pig of perfect finance orgnaization to fulfil his duty to avoid duty restrain a mechanism with drive. In the meantime, suit from " carry pig " to " carry flesh " trend, guide large breed aquatics slaughter of hog of development of form a complete set of nearby of industry on the spot processes trade, drive perfect sth resembling a net of drift net of cold chain content. In addition, the overlay that in the light of new coronal pig of opposite of pneumonic epidemic situation produces is affected, central finance will borrow money temporarily limits of allowance of pay interest in the form of a deduction when selling a bill of exchange by the farm of 5000 above door enlarge 500 above, reduced scope the financing cost of field door.
Supply slant to be returned closely will last for some time
Suffer manufacturing cycle and effect of epidemic situation of African swine fever, output of our country pork fell 2018 reach 54.04 million tons, fell 2019 reach 42.55 million tons. " accelerate hog production to restore to develop action plan 3 years " put forward, to the end of 2020, produce can restore basically all the year round level. Each province stands fell " military orders shape " , refine task target decompose city to arrive county. The reporter understands, alleged point to all the year round 2017, point to basically 8 into. With this computation, can numerous this year sow and live pig amount of livestock on hand month of these two index all annulus should achieve 1.6 ％ than amplitude. Will look according to current data and development posture, this can come true.
Live pig produces resumptive foundation to return flabby solid now, market price case still is in exalted concussion, annulus of month of can numerous sow compares some province amplitude wave motion is bigger.
Hog production restores to anticipate with African swine fever direct and relevant, anticipate epidemic situation is smooth, just dare bold filling column is added raise, once epidemic situation rebounds, anticipate changeover, will cause impact to breeding hope. Should optimize prevent accuse strategy, advance normalization to prevent accuse, ensure epidemic situation of African swine fever does not rebound, for live pig production restores to provide strong safeguard.
Pork concept appears is to follow pork or of live pig price rise appear. In A inside, to pursueing the business of live pig breed aquatics technically, pork price also affects the profit of these enterprises, put in definitive impact to pork concept prices. Live pig price falls 13 weeks continuously, our country development reforms committee to pay close attention to live pig and form of market price case very much, prevent live pig price excessive reduce, the influence breeds an interest. The pork concept in field of A stock market basically have: Collect ox hill (000735) , suitable Xin agriculture.
Hope 000876 current trends move in weak force rests under lifeline area, metaphase capital chip is occupied shed all-around 68.46% , brunt accuses dish degree of loftier direction still hopeful. Through Jiang En price tool is analysed, this short-term propping up is 26.23 yuan, obstruction is 29.51 yuan; Through Jiang En time tool is analysed, window of this short-term time is 2020-05-05 date and 2020-05-26 date, date of 2020-06-16 of metaphase time window and 2020-07-20 date, combine the cost that maintain a warehouse to make good plan.
