Since Sino-US commerce develops jump form, battle history also is in beautiful trade of 30 many that paragraph of day year ago home is alluded increasingly. People hopes to discover the answer scheme of applicable instantly from inside the history, hope China can avoid to weigh skip Japan more " 20 years of lose " the track of an overturned cart.
It is the history is not only simple transverse quite. Industrial policy of Japan ever affected the relevant policy train of thought of our country deeply, but the industrial policy that before two years home begins discusses greatly, exposed the understanding error that we are carried out to Japanese industry policy for years on certain level however. Accordingly, the lens ancient bronze mirror with respect to trade war, we also cannot bureau be confined to buries an a heap of musty old books or papers.
On June 7, 2018 - 9 days, chinese finance 40 people forum (CF40) expert group goes to day of visit, visited the decision-making department such as province of Japanese economy industry, as comprehensive as Japanese wild village institute (NRI) held the 8th times jointly " Sino-Japanese finance is round-table seminar " . Ceng Shen is spent participate in in those days negotiation of day beautiful trade and nearly 20 Japan officials that devote oneself to for a long time to research this field and scholar, summed up in those days the lesson that day beautiful trade negotiates and experience, offerred relevant proposal for friction of current and Sino-US trade. This the main ginseng of round-table seminar meets Sino-Japanese finance the honored guest has:
Adviser of science of Yu Yongding CF40, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences learns ministry committee member
The committee member of learning of Gao Shanwen CF40, negotiable securities that bring a letter is presiding economist
Guan Tao CF40 is advanced researcher
Ha Jiming CF40 is advanced researcher
Zhang Bin CF40 is advanced researcher
Secretary-general of Wang Haiming CF40
Researcher of guest of institute of problem of international of Japan of the Jun Zai on ferry
Wood leaves job of principle of bank of letter travel Japan
Plant field and committee of policy of male Japan bank discuss reputation of university of committee member, Tokyo to teach
In addition, the day square expert that attends this seminar still includes: Wild village is integrated institute chairman researcher is Jingshangzheye, wild institute of village capital market is senior researcher Guan Zhixiong, wild village put together grinds (Beijing) professor of Gong Jian of god of minister of department of financial innovation research, Wu Cangye college is deep.
CF40 expert group and NRI expert group have finance round-table discussion
CF40 expert group and NRI expert group have finance round-table discussion
CF40 expert group and wild village put together grind group of this Ben Chenwu meets the president face
Trade war essence is wrestle of a politics
The trade friction between beautiful day is OK date from is consummate century 50 time. During getting Korea war " wring the boom other silk " influence, the Japanese spin enterprise at that time on one hand work off is many commodity of keep long in stock, enlarge crop further on the other hand, bring about appeared to produce can superfluous situation after the war ends. Subsequently, japanese spin enterprise delivers the view to the United States, begin low to export dry goods to the United States in great quantities, appeared even " shirt of 1 dollar lady " incident, caused the dissatisfaction of American enterprise, government of latter requirement United States undertakes limitative to Japanese textile exit.
After this, as the adjustment of Japanese industry structure and development, the focus that beautiful day trade chafes gradually domain of light chemical industry turns to the industry such as steely, color television, car, semiconductor, the United States forced Japan to sign much trade agreement during, limit the export of Japanese of all kinds product ceaselessly.
Simple rub one's palm along smooth out with the fingers, we can comb give a friction of very clear beautiful day trade to develop a general name for arteries and veins:
Light industry is tasted (earlier) → iron and steel, color television, car (upgrade) line of business of → semiconductor, finance, service, investment (erupt in the round)
This evolves into method and Telangpu the government is opposite currently layer upon layer raise the quota of China is very similar, the most apparent feature is trade friction expands to a few fields that involve national security or have strategic sense gradually. Accompany adversary country the buildup of macroeconomic actual strength, american attitude is tougher and tougher also, conflict focus also rises to economic system, commerce consuetudinary wait for the level.
The United States to " China is made 2025 " the typical explanation that criticises can be being regarded is afore-mentioned method.
Be in early in May 2015, our country with respect to print and distribute " China is made 2025 " , but till 3 years hind, the United States just is opposite its height is vigilant. Although backside reason is complex, but the rapid development that waits for a domain a few this years in mobile Internet, artificial intelligence, big data breaks through our country, it is a when your United States feels disturbed main factor undoubtedly, appeared even " Russia blasts off ' spouse name is pounded (Sputnik Shock) ' repeat " this kind of view.
"... Global Industrial Leaders, Including U.S. Companies, So That China May Achieve Global Market Dominance. " in 301 findings report, the United States thinks China is being carried out by the industrial policy of governmental dominant (" China is made 2025 " ) , describe the goal of industrial policy so, any evidence that censure about this did not give out however in the meantime.
Look in scholar of a few Japan, the United States starts trade war " do not need proof, need excuse only " , because the essence of trade war is wrestle of a politics.
And the excuse of denounce United States is not difficult also, "China in recent years the development of new economy, this plants BAT of main profit from the initiative innovation of civilian battalion enterprise, concern with governmental dominant not quite. " have Japanese expert proposal, it is clear that China should say this thing should say this thing external.
But this is not meant to industrial policy examine no point. Even if the country that in Japan this kind of a lot of people consider as industrial policy practice to succeed most, the semiconductor industry of beautiful too far behind to catch up with of its Ceng Lingou, also be defeated on certain level was in on industrial policy hand war of trade of and rather than.
Although Japanese semiconductor be on the wane negotiates to already began from semiconductor of beautiful 1986 day, but when beautiful 1991 day signs semiconductor agreement the 2nd times, japan still is the overlord of DRAM market, have global DRAM market the portion of 60% . After this, at that time as a result of,produce a province before industrial policy savor is carried out in memory domain benefit, initiated countless officials to produce again then learn a project. Produce a province to match via connecting, day establishs the DRAM business of the place that make and NEC to incorporated 1999, er is amounted to surely (ELPIDA) memory company is born. 2003, er is amounted to surely bring into the DRAM branch of electric machinery of 3 water chestnut general again, become Japan's only DRAM firm. But ever since company outstanding achievement cannot walk out of trough from beginning to end, 2012 suspend payment.
The failure that Er amounts to surely can use haing Buddha university completely to teach the research of the person such as A Ji Weng to undertake explanatory. This research makes clear, government office of be in power gives aid to when the industry with intense competition, industrial policy has openly effect to efficiency, but what support when the government is forestall industry when, industrial policy does not have openly effect to efficiency. During CF40 expert group visits day, many Japanese scholar suggests, when China is being made and implementing industrial policy must discreet.
CF40 expert group and Guan Zhixiong of expert of wild village group guild face
Resurgence incident or cause, changeover of IT free trade trend
American Ceng Sheng says punish resurgence is isolated incident, have nothing to do with trade war, vetoed this one version again after that. But no matter hit the real purpose of resurgence why, partial Japan scholar is afraid, from this or cause changeover of IT free trade trend.
IT industry can realize free trade, " IT agreement " (ITA) result cannot do not have. ITA is one of important negotiation achievement after WTO holds water, its result from the IT industry whole world that started formally on Japanese Kobe conference 1994 negotiates. Join the beauty of the meeting, day, Europe at that time, add all directions to reach tacit agreement, requirement all directions cancels the respect such as semiconductor, computer, software and communication equipment completely before 2000 the custom duty of main IT product. 1995, the forehead exceeds the IT product imports and exports of afore-mentioned all directions international 50% of commerce of this kinds of product, then all directions thinks the opportunity is already mature, offerred this topic for discussion to WTO 1996. In December 1996, in WTO on conference of first minister class, 29 attend what just sign in Singapore " the minister about IT product commerce is enunciative " middle finger goes out, "Begin from July 1, 1997 on January 1, 2000, the custom duty that reduces IT product in installment " , be in " become all attending when square trading business volume occupies scale of trading business volume of world IT product to exceed 90% , the agreement is formal become effective " .
In view of at that time 29 primitive sign 83% what honest IT product total volume of trade takes trading business volume of global IT product only, did not reach the commerce share of 90% , as sign national addition, to March 26, 1997, take total volume of trade of world IT product 40 of 92.5% attend to be in just now " IT agreement " on sign acceptance: The developed country is in on January 1, 2000, the developing country cancels the custom duty of IT product before 2005. So far, ITA formal go into effect.
2015, WTO member country comes to an agreement again the custom duty that reduces IT commodity. This one agreement is pair of ITA before this is newer, more than 200 kinds of commodity will be added in inventory of 0 custom duty, these add year of trading business volume of commodity newly to reach 1 trillion dollar.
Imagine very hard, if IT course of study does not have implementation free trade, if malic company cannot the alive bound each district of low cost seeks the most businesslike spare parts supplier, if resurgence from now on absent communication industry, whether can we still use a mobile phone today at any time and place " encounter a whole world " , will not whether still can wait come the application of 5G technology.
"Although resurgence also has the one side of have only oneself to blame this, but if normative IT industry reachs the policy concept of its commerce from ' free trade ' become ' safe safeguard ' and ' ground fringe politics ' , may that also see the progress that is less than IT again after us? " the person that have Japanology is in Sino-Japanese finance is round-table seminar spot ask a question, those who answer him is a become silent.
CF40 expert group visits province of Japanese economy industry
Trade dispute is settled below multilateral frame
To China, undertake with the United States commerce negotiates today the system has established the multilateral trade regulation that a the most favorable situation is based on WTO namely, unilateral commerce of the United States protects behavior to will be restrained regularly by WTO.
China must insist to settle trade dispute below multilateral frame, this is a bit what the scholar emphasizes a Japan repeatedly more, also be Sino-US economist is in before this " 2018 · CF40-PIIE reports jointly " in a reachs consensus, also be China actually the solution that carrying out at present is decision-making slightly.
From the point of feasibility condition, chinese comply with the majority resolution of WTO, include what make on certain trade conflict to have be contrary to the resolution of Chinese interest. American criterion wins victory in the majority and the WTO lawsuit related its. Have a difference of opinions and solve the effect of the mechanism and basic just sex to position of country of Chinese market economy without influence WTO conflict. More important is, the resolution that has legal effectiveness can prevent a tooth for a tooth revengeful behavior upgrades.
"From the point of Japanese experience, obtain good result very hard with bilateral negotiation of the United States. " memory of the person that have Japanology, in bilateral negotiation, the United States always can take out Japan of safe problem intimidate finally, force Japan to accept the one-sided provision that the United States raises. Replace a GATT till WTO (GATT) hind, japan just changes and use multilateral conflict to solve a mechanism to settle day of beautiful trade friction and dispute. 1998, japan is in day of beauty what day beauty trade dispute settles below multilateral frame is obtain to win first in film conflict case. After this, japanese government applies WTO multilateral conflict to solve a mechanism to handle commerce to grind to soar with the confidence of conflict, apply multilateral conflict to solve a mechanism to mention many cases appeal, and majority won a victory.
And China solves trade controversial issue to still have a distinct advantage below multilateral frame, namely China is the whole world is the greatest among taste commerce big country, with a lot of countries implicative interest concerns. Sino-US the trade war between will cause chain reaction on global value catenary, also accordingly, china can strive for more ally the trade protectionism of collective antagonism United States.
But a problem that causes from this is, whether to strive for ally to be equal to be arranged at aggrandizement area commerce? Japanese scholar suggests, since negotiation of many haing bout is started, what area commerce arranges is arisen even built on stilts the global trade system of organization that is a delegate with WTO, this regular to global commerce system is a kind of harm, china should avoid this kind of harm in solving process of trade controversial issue.
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