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Editor's note
Beijing time on June 15 before dawn at 2 o'clock, cloth of beautiful couplet Chu Xuan is increased interval of standard interest rate 25 base point. This is American Central Bank adds breath cycle the 4th times currently breath, add the 2nd times inside this year breath. Meanwhile, beautiful couplet store point out to cut balance sheet will begin inside this year, exceed the market to anticipate. Two afore-mentioned measure were released the strongest tighten up monetary policy signal.
But from that day market reaction looks, dollar index did not rise apparently, the United States 10 years period national debt yield drops instead, RMB exchange rate appears instead appreciate these expression of · of · of · of · · · and beautiful couplet store add breath shrink express two big move to appear to be contrary to. So, what is the reason of backside? How does Japanese Central Bank, Europe Central Bank, China Central Bank answer beautiful couplet store add breath shrink watch? How does the dweller of cash reach an enterprise to do related hold?
21 centuries economy reports origin Piao (Jjbd21)
Reporter Piao special correpondent new York reports
Although appear incident of many black swan, global economy still lies after financial crisis the most driving growth phase. American federal lays in council to lend this the opportunity, offer cut balance sheet first (" shrink watch " ) plan, open afterwards is added after breath the new way of normalization of global monetary policy.
After policy conference of two days, local time on June 14 afternoon, chu Xuan cloth adds beautiful couplet again breath 25 base point, interest rate interval rises to 1.00%-1.25% . Meanwhile, cloth of beautiful couplet Chu Xuan is cut the detail of balance sheet dimensions, above all set a limitation of every months of 10 billion dollar, raise limit next to every months of 50 billion dollar.
Although fail,specific specification shrinks watch time, but beautiful couplet store very determined when announcing this one major policy to change. "We may begin balance sheet normalization early relatively. " beautiful couplet store the chairman says on the press conference that Ye human relations holds in Washington.
After the news briefing, the market predicts generally, beautiful couplet store will announce probably to start September shrink watch. This will be Central Bank of the whole world after financial crisis operate reversely first: Go 10 years, the balance sheet dimensions of main Central Bank already enlarged even more 10 trillion dollar, to 15 trillion dollar.
Although market personage all is approbated,shrink of the watch necessary, but roll out at the same time add cease and shrink list plan still makes global market afraid, this round of double policy combines a fist to will bring impact of what kind of market.
"We see Benciyelun make known our position to compare gentle, shrink the starting scale of the watch is not large, add the circumstance of breath to also want to waiting to look next data. " international is large and safe group AIG whole world is presiding economist Mo Hengyong expresses to report of 21 centuries economy. He expresses, at present beautiful couplet store resolution is short-term the impact is not big, but will for a long time look to move toward capital of change whole world.
Up to distribute news dispatches, the most economist that Peng Bo surveys thinks, beautiful couplet store the likelihood will announce to add again in September breath. Calculate according to CME FedWatch, federal fund futures shows the member that trade predicts beautiful couplet store will add in December cease to be to the probability of 1.25%~1.5% 46% , with on day keeps balance basically later on.
"Behind the curtain of fall back on " shrink list plan
As the monetary policy of special rule, be in early 2010, beautiful couplet store former chairman Bai Nake ever expressed publicly to hope to be in inside help beautiful couplet store cancel favorable balance of trade loose monetary policy. But because economy anabiosises,anticipate not as good as, when he leaves off his post by January 2014, quantify loose monetary policy in still be being carried out.
To the end of October 2014, beautiful couplet store chairman Ye human relations when ending the 3rd round to quantify loose monetary policy, beautiful couplet store balance sheet dimensions already from financial crisis before be less than 1 trillion dollar to expand to about 4.5 trillion dollar. After this, beautiful couplet Chu Wei opposes balance sheet scale changeless, maintain financial environment comfortable.
Be aimed at the market reaction that appears possibly, ye human relations emphasizes on the news briefing, beautiful couplet store shrink the watch is advance gradually, can anticipate, practicable. Ye human relations expresses, announcing plan detail is to let the market shift to an earlier date ready-made, wait to begin truly " shrink watch " when, the market will be quiet in order to wait for.
"The hope shrinks the watch can undertake silently in the setting of adjusting control, won't be paid close attention to by too much market. " Ye human relations expresses.
Mo Hengyong thinks, look from the detail that announces at present, buy a plan before one times to be compared with respect to the asset of -727379968 with this, shrink this watch scope is very little, so that short-term effect won't be too apparent.
Meanwhile, beautiful couplet store also express to shrink through a variety of channel provided preparation.
Return as American economy anabiosis steadily orbit, growth of obtain employment market is driving, monetary policy normalization carries program gradually. In December 2015, beautiful couplet store since starting financial crisis eventually add first breath, after this, part again in December 2016, mixed this year in March tierce was added in June breath. Because add breath rhythm relatively slow, anticipate management is successful, the market reacts whole calms.
Add breath make federal fund interest rate is cast off adjacent of 0 exceed low interval, the couplet that it is the United States store it is certain to win lower interest space in order to have untimely needs, also make beautiful couplet store can brew adequately " shrink watch " , drive monetary policy to return to normal.
Analytic personage thinks, in view of Ye human relations lieutenancy comes next year in Feburary, american president Telangpuke can be met the beautiful couplet with new nomination store chairman person selected, reduce market uncertainty to ensure the continuity of monetary policy is mixed, ye human relations is likely more apt is fulfilled as early as possible this year " shrink watch " plan and reach decision-making consensus.
Beautiful couplet store already added cease 3 times, but did not cause economy and financial side apparent concussion; Its are about to begin shrink list plan also has not give American debt city to cause at present flabby.
Couplet is in the beauty store after the news briefing, american stock market, whole world collects city to did not appear severe concussion, and debt city yield appeared of certain extent glide.
Below low inflation add breath method to guess
Shrink besides the watch, the dot of another great attention of the market ceases to add. Beautiful couplet store add in this outside breath, decided future continues to maintain add the way of breath: Predict to be added again this year cease, next year 3.
But beautiful couplet store this one decision-making caused tremendous controversy. Before discussing breath resolution to announce, the United States in May consumer price index (CPI) relatively before the month glides 0.1% , the core CPI of eliminate food and the sources of energy relatively go up year of the corresponding period is only rise 1.7% , under before of the month rise 1.9% .
This has been inflationary index inside year glide the 2nd times, the market is right of prospective inflation go situation was full of anxious.
Beautiful couplet store argue says, near future inflation is fatigued and weak just " temporary " phenomenon, but beautiful couplet store the official still reduced pair this year of inflation anticipate: Inflation compared to the same period increase rate will reach the target level of 2% to the end of 2018. The prices that expects eliminate food and the sources of energy now will rise this year 1.7% , anticipate when March litre for 1.9% .
American inflation and consumptive data let outside height doubt, beautiful couplet store whether can reach place truly beforehand the level of 3% neuter interest rate of appraise.
"Rise the sluggish aftereffect of breath before a few times to had been not shown, the influence that raises pay of the person that breath offset is expended should show average need completely 18 months time, defer plus the policy that reduce tax, the adverse element of potential protectionism and other side, mean ' apical ' interest rate level is met under 2% . " chief analyst Neil Williams is in group of Hermes investment management after Chu Sheng ceases, beautiful couplet expresses.
In addition, from beautiful couplet store rose in March since breath, a significant change is, the outside is right Telangpu government whether the confidence that carry out excitant defray or decreases tax policy has been reduced considerably, and the action of these measure will be far more than push high share price.
"4 months unemployment rate fell in the past 0.5 percent, but beautiful couplet store anticipate now remain time to won't drop again this year. This is far from reasonable, will amend possibly in September. " the Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics is written in studying a report.
Mo Hengyong expresses, prospective beautiful couplet store the ultimate goal of policy method is inflationary data. "Add cease and shrink the premise of the watch depends on inflation cannot continueing to glide. If inflationary data glides significantly, should won't shrink watch. Should won't shrink watch..
Mo Hengyong predicts, if American economy is mixed inflationary upturn, will shrink in September watch, will add the combination that ceasing is a likelihood in December. But if inflation is returned,did not pick up clearly, beautiful couplet store very possible will December add breath shift to next year. If once open will shrink in September,be expressed,the reason depends on, so having beginninging actually constrictive; If inflation continues be issued to lower levels, beautiful couplet store will more do not have will increase the likelihood of breath in December.
(edit Yang Zhijin)
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