When I and numerous reader undertake interacting, a few issues with received top frequency are: Five how does the teacher look next the stock market? The US stock had gone up so old, has been the redound that buys a share next still met? Be in next in 10 years, I should be to buy some of share more, still buy some of bond more? Accordingly today this article, will discuss these a few issues with everybody.
What want to tell everybody above all is: When does the US stock ascend a top, I do not know. The column in the author " creed of Wu Zhijian evidence " in, I once listed a large number of evidence to prove: Will not cannot be forecasted, when investor does not waste time to make pick, forecast.
But be based on much historical evidence and financial research, what we can know is: The hold stock of long-term patience, can win better investment get one's own back. To invest a risk dispersedly, investor always should notice multivariate and dispersive. Investor can the factor with the biggest to investing redound to affect pilot, invest cost namely. Because this investor should be held to " hold to control cost, effective system, for a long time " investment principle, him help wins better investment get one's own back.
A lot of readers, invest logic to this or very approbate. But they cannot help wanting to know: How much may the investment redound that did not come after all be? Stock and bond photograph are compared, is investing redound to you can be returned higher lower? Because this is in this article, I share a few perspectives that ponder over this problem with everybody. What need points out is, everybody just is helped offer a few interesting perspectives here just. The purpose of this article, not be to forecast future.
Above all, let us view bond. Did not come 10 years, how much is the investment redound that we invest American government bond to you can be obtained?
This problem, reply very easily actually. Invest governmental bond of the United States, its expire yield, it is we can be taken in one's hand investment redound (nominal redound) .
Than as above plan institute is shown, be based on in May 2018, the United States 10 years period of national debt expire yield is 3% the left and right sides. This is meant, if we buy 10 years now period American national debt, all the time hold expires (10 years) , so in these 10 years, the investment get one's own back that we can win, it is annual 3% the left and right sides.
Of course, this is the nominal return rate before deducting inflation. The true redound of investor, need deducts the inflation of the corresponding period. The inflationary rate that did not come 10 years suppose is annual 2% , so the true get one's own back that investor can win, be in annual 1% the left and right sides.
Opposite for, the redound of bond, forecast very easily. So the issue came, how much is the redound of the stock? The stock redound that did not come 10 years, it is to compare annual 3% tall, low still?
To this problem, everybody has different view, its analyse a method also each are not identical. For instance some people can be based on current stock market estimate to be worth, have the historical appraise value of the sum stock market contrast, reach oneself the view to prospective stock market. Some people are met according to dividend discount model (DDM) will calculate of the stock market " reasonable price " , make the price with the sum current stock market contrast, come to those who forecast future go up drop. These methods, have certain logic, but also may not effect of hundred calm collect (if the word of effect of fair happen by chance, everybody can forecast the stock market easily to go up dropped) .
Here, I and everybody share another interesting perspective that analyses this problem: Pass the market prise of global stock market, come appraise is measured next stock market redound.
Stock market market prise the scale to GDP, also be called " index of Ba Fei spy " . Because Buffett once pointed out 2001,this basically is, stock market market prise the ratio to GDP, the likelihood is one of effective index that can reflect stock market appraise to be worth most.
In other words, buffett's means, if the stock market market prise of one country is right the ratio of GDP is very high, so investor may take care with respect to need, because hasten of value of stock market appraise is tall, the likelihood is put in bubble. Conversely, if one country the market prise of the stock market is very low to the ratio of GDP, so this may be one enters the main chance that gains a ground.
Of course, this word of Buffett, basically be aimed at American market. But we might as well expand this concept to world stock market, see this ratio and the investment redound that the stock market did not come to have dependency.
The green line in pursueing on, the market prise that those who show is world stock market / the rate of world GDP. We can see, uprighted 30 years roughly in the past at 0.25 and 0.7 between. This rate, once had twice reach exorbitant point:
1) 2000, eve of burst of American Internet bubble.
The market prise of global stock market at that time, to the ratio of global GDP, achieved 0.65 of the left and right sides new tall. Next 10 years (2000~2010 year) get one's own back of global stock market is very bad, still be less than annual 1% (the stock market in 10 years does not have that is to say almost rise) .
2) 2007, eve of global banking crisis.
The market prise of global stock market at that time, to the ratio of global GDP, achieved 0.7 the left and right sides, exceeded the level 2000. In 10 years after that, the redound of global stock market again goodish, it is about annual 3% the left and right sides.
If contrast market prise of stock market of past whole world / the ratio of GDP, and next global stock market of 10 years year redound, we can see roughly the rule: That is the stock market / the ratio of GDP is higher, stock market redound of 10 years is next poorer. Vice versa.
Why can you have such law? The logic of backside, still basically be based on the appraise of the stock market to be worth. In short, if the stock market is precious now, so next redound (10 years) , too won't tall. If the stock market is very cheap now, so next redound, likely first-rate.
E.g. , 2003 when, global stock market / the rate of GDP is in 0.35 the left and right sides, it is to attribute smaller position. From 2003~2013 year redound of global stock market, it is about annual 9.36% the left and right sides, very pretty good.
If we calculate from 2009,rise, because of the influence of financial storm, global stock market is cast into trough again. So next 10 years, the redound of the stock also is met very pretty good. Had not arrived at present 2019, arrived to await the sentence of redound of computational stock market in those days really, where should not differ.
The analysis above tells us these a few truths:
1) the stock market is in prospective redound, with current estimate the value has very big concern. This also is one of the most crucial marrow in the value investment that Geleiemu and Buffett advocate: Buying cost decides to invest redound.
2) obtain Yuan Chao at the market of average redound level above quota one of keys of redound, be " converse thinking " , buffett is said: Careful when other people is greedy, greedy when others is recreant. Of course, " converse thinking " saying is very easy, but it is very difficult to should be done really. Imagine 2009, it is when everybody when a fleeing army's suspicion of danger at the slightest sound that is frightened by financial crisis, what stand to go alone especially is bold buy, this can not be the ordinary person can be done get.
But what need points out is, afore-mentioned analysises also have its weak point.
Say for example, global stock market the ratio to GDP, always do not abide by certainly " all be worth regression " the rule.
Be based on the GDP calculative word 2016 for instance, market prise of American stock market / the ratio of GDP is in probably 140% the left and right sides, and market prise of Chinese stock market / the ratio of GDP is in about 65% the left and right sides.
But, this does not mean Chinese stock market / the ratio of GDP can be in forever 65% or so fluctuation is fluctuant. A more probable condition, the development that is Chinese stock market is more and more mature, its market prise / the specific value of GDP is greater and greater, more the scale that hasten is bordering on the United States. Below this kind of circumstance, if cover stock market market prise forcedly / GDP ratio goes be worth for stock appraise, the likelihood can make " take measures without attention to the changes in circumstances " mistake. Of course, to most developed country (beautiful / / flower / day / the law) , because their stock market and economy are opposite mature, because this referenced meaning of this ratio is a few more effective.
Current, market prise of global stock market is right global GDP (be based on the global GDP 2016) ratio, it is about 0.6 the left and right sides. The stock market market prise of on the history 0.6 / the ratio of GDP, corresponding next investment redound of 10 years, control in 3%~4% about. Of course, this does not mean global share next redound is 3%~4% certainly, but can give us roughly referenced: Want to see the stock market continues namely redound is annual 7% , annual even 10% , should be unlikely.
Emphasize again, the purpose of the article, not be the redound that goes forecasting the stock market, accordingly afore-mentioned analysises, just offer a perspective that think for everybody.
Be the same as what duration must point out is, the long-term redound of the stock market, with it redound of each years is two completely different ideas. Say for example, mark general 500 indexes are in the redound 2017 21% the left and right sides, far outclass history is average, also the future that our appraise surveys outclass is long-term redound. Because this is measured to the long-term estimate of stock market redound, it is to cannot help what we go when choose or undertake short-term seize a chance to seek private gain is operated.
A problem that is worth us to think is: 10 years the redound of beautiful debt is hypothesis future 3% , the redound of global stock is 3%~4% , so how should we undertake configuration? It is to buy a share more, still buy bond more, is or both balance? This is another more complex issue, besides to the market sentence beforehand besides, still need to consider the individual case of investor, risk preference, invest all sorts of elements such as cycle. Be aimed at this problem, my meeting writes article of a special subject technically additionally, the hope can be helped have friends of reader of this respect interrogative.
Hope to be helped somewhat to everybody.
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Reference material:
Wu Zhijian: Is the appraise cost of the US stock high?
Wu Zhijian: Small tortoise learns to invest series 8: The purchasing power that how erodes you is inflation?
