Arise suddenly but be in again expected: The Central Bank inside year the 3rd directional fall accurate " boots " be born.
Dong Xiang of new classics abb is depended on in the Central Bank photograph
Chinese people bank announces 24 days, since July 5, 2018, reduce reserve of deposit of RMB of bank of commercial bank of country of region of county of commercial bank of state-owned and large commercial bank, share-holding system commercial bank, postal savings bank, city, blame, foreign capital to lead 0.5 percent.
This is from January 25, 2018 the Central Bank is opposite general benefit finance is directional fall accurate, directional on April 25 fall accurate displacement metaphase is leasehold and convenience (since MLF) , the Central Bank inside year be down tone the 3rd times to put standard rate surely. This directional fall to be able to release capital to make an appointment with 700 billion yuan definitely.
Where can 700 billion capital flow to?
A word will generalize: 700 billion yuan of capital will release county of bank of 12 5 state-owned and large commercial banks, share-holding system and city commercial firm, blame bank of region farming commercial firm, foreign capital (be equal to basically enclothe) in the round, use support " debt is accurate " financing of He Xiaowei industry.
Specific in light of, the Central Bank says, this directional fall to basically have two respects content definitely: It is rise from July 5, 2018, reduce labour travel, Agriculture Bank, medium travel, Construction Bank, hand in row 5 state-owned and large commercial banks and in letter bank, Guang Dayin RMB deposit reserve leads the commercial bank of 12 share-holding system such as travel 0.5 percent, can release capital to make an appointment with 500 billion yuan, use at support to commercialize law to change " debt turns " project, at the same time the social capital of same scale shares prize.
2 it is to reduce reserve of deposit of RMB of bank of commercial bank of country of the commercial bank of postal savings bank, city, region that be not a county, foreign capital to lead 0.5 percent at the same time, can release capital to make an appointment with 200 billion yuan, basically use at supporting relevant bank to develop market of small small company, extend small small company borrows money, alleviate further expensive issue of difficult financing of financing of small small company. Financial orgnaization is used fall accurate capital supports " debt turns " the circumstance of financing of He Xiaowei industry will bring into people bank macroscopical and careful evaluate.
How to affect city of the stock market, debt, building city?
How will see this directional fall accurate? So financial academy is presiding the word of economist Guan Qingyou is again suitable nevertheless -- " go up objectively released fluidity, alleviated capital pressure, be helpful for improving market sentiment. Be helpful for improving market sentiment..
He says further, "This week Central Bank releases a few positive signal ceaselessly, the metaphase that the Central Bank spread out 200 billion yuan is leasehold and convenience (MLF) , pass at the same time directional fall to release fluidity to the market definitely. This second directional fall accurate result is better, have specific aim more, alleviated on certain level the problem of insecurity of market fund area, also can enhance investor confidence. " in addition, he still suggests investor embraces consumptive white horse actively, will resist the market considerably concussion.
Flower chief economist Li Daxiao also represents big negotiable security, the Central Bank is directional fall to belong to major interest good news definitely, can release a fluidity 700 billion yuan or so, solve financing the issue with difficult, expensive financing, reduce the financing cost of the enterprise. It is to very much the front is affected to medium and small businesses especially, also have the effect of very serious obverse side to maintaining economic stability.
Be aimed at debt city, negotiable securities of the Yangtse River is presiding and macroscopical analyst Zhao Wei thinks, directional fall accurate short-term or carry brace up market sentiment, monetary policy is paid attention to more guide capital to flow to entity, good to debt city benefit or finite, will look inside year, as credit contractive influence is shown stage by stage, debt city returns to main area drive. Debt city or continuance concussion pattern, medium return to main area drive for a long time.
Hua Taihong watchs Li Chao group to forecast an analysis, second half of the year still can have 1-2 second directional fall accurate, the Central Bank needs to pass directional fall standard pattern releases long-term financing, lower calm danger yield. Predicting second half of the year 10 years period the coping of national debt yield is in 3.8% , centre 3.6% , bottom is in 3.4% .
Capital of 700 billion yuan of huge amounts is released, can building city receive benefit? Right what does the person that buy a house mean?
"The history looks, should fall only accurate, affirming to estate is benefit good, can alleviate financing area is pressed. " in Central Plains real estate Wei of chief analyst magnify looks, building city will somewhat benefit, also can certain level alleviates estate fund tightens up pressure.
Can monetary policy change direction?
Notable is, this is the Central Bank inside year the 3rd directional fall accurate (recently is on April 17, the Central Bank reduces reserve of deposit of partial finance orgnaization to lead with displacement MLF) .
This is an important signal undoubtedly.
Spend this energetically whether to fall to mean monetary policy to change direction definitely comfortable? National finance and Ceng Gang of development lab vice director gave negative answer.
Ceng Gang points out, structural sex goes lever is to go this year the core of lever, what key job should go is the lever of state-owned company and local government, but below the condition that tightens in financing area hasten, medium and small businesses got pound with civilian look forward to, this meeting lets structural sex go the effect of lever is not so evident, return meeting and original intention possibly even to deviate from somewhat.
"Below this kind of circumstance, carry out directional fall accurate, it is to emphasize the structural sex of monetary policy itself guiding, reflected the flexibility of monetary policy adequately, but do not mean monetary policy to change direction comfortable. " he earlies childhood, will look from gross, although be this directional,fall accurate, but all orgnaizations are actually basic include inside, the liquidity that can add whole market furnishs, change supply of area of financing of hypostatic now economy to compare nervous position, maintain the liquidity of whole money market in a reasonable level.
What must carry here is, this Zhou San (on June 20) the State Council is standing conference deploy alleviate further small small financing a series of move with difficult, costly financing, include among them directional fall accurate. And this " Guan Xuan " directional the final be born that falling also is afore-mentioned measure definitely.
The sea connects negotiable securities to grind before signing up for this, make clear point out, directional falling is not a money definitely comfortable. Situation of appearance of near future home has constant change, consequently (money) policy also needs corresponding fine tuning. Backing small small company is supportive obtain employment, reflected a government to be on guard internally dissolve great banking venture, answer the bottom line thinking when Sino-US strategy pattern transforms external. From the point of act content, directional fall to just reduce cost of financing of small small company definitely in 5 big step the first the 4th, key of far from core, cannot think accordingly monetary policy such great and decision-making appeared to change.
In addition, chief researcher Wen Bin is accepting bank of Chinese the people's livelihood when interviewing, also say, "Directional fall not to mean flood flooding definitely, the fundamental key with dovish and neutral monetary policy did not change. " this is helpful for a bank reducing the cost that wins liquidity support, the government that is helpful for a bank doing good asset to be in debt works, also will guide financial orgnaization to increase pair of hypostatic support strength further.
