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Civil | Beautiful of Pan Xiangdong, Liu, Chen Yun is in relief
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Current economic situation is analysed
In July supply and demand two weak, industry increases a value to be added compared to the same period fast add high in cost of delivery of small cardinal number, exit fast, manufacturing industry increases a value to be added compared to the same period fast below addition joint action, be able to stabilize in 6% . Company 0 add fast appear after the stimulative effect of 618 shopping section, world cups ends fall after a rise, must consumable consumption is added fast overall fall after a rise, and car consumption is added fast after the car imported custom duty to reduce on July 1 still low fan. Fixed assets investment is added compared to the same period fast continue fall after a rise, among them, capital construction investment is added compared to the same period to fixed assets investment fast pull move rate it is only 0.49% , it is cent of fixed assets investment in the biggest short board.
Policy is put in time lag, investment of follow-up capital construction adds fast hopeful to rebound. From the point of financing source, capital construction investment is added compared to the same period fast glide continuously main as a result of finance policy suffer not actively with channel of local platform financing be restricted. The policy that although regular meeting mixes the country end July,conference of the Political Bureau offerred loose capital construction, wide credit, but policy is put in time lag commonly, still can't make up for government spending to add fast glide, new issue on the low side of local debt dimensions and financing to accept bounds separation. The Ministry of finance was released on August 14 " special bond publishs good about doing local government working opinion " , the requirement accelerates special bond to issue plan, local debt issues plan not to get a quarter this year balanced requirement limitation, each district is finished to the accumulative total end September add special bond newly to issue scale in principle to be not gotten under 80% , the rest issues the forehead to spend basically will put October to issue. Various finance department ought to be arranged in time use special bond income, accelerate appropriate of special bond fund, be on guard capital stops for a long time the treasury, develop special bond to use benefit as early as possible. As the hair force of policy, investment of 8-9 month capital construction is added compared to the same period fast big probability is greeted rebound, because want to end local debt displacement to work by August, because capital construction investment will be added this in September fast bounce is spent or be more than instead in August.
Below steady growth pressure, policy transforms to the manner of capital construction. Regular meeting and Ministry of finance are in the country to put forward in May " accelerate government spending + compress examine and approve time " policy combination, but put forward policy not clearly at that time to basically serve at capital construction project, basis 2018 content of governmental working report, government spending should to innovation drive, 3 farming wait for national emphasis to develop a domain to tilt. Wh what month is separated when, policy appears to be adjusted apparently, the pressure of main steady still growth and pressing sex relatively increase somewhat before this:
One of, the United States is right China custom duty measure raises the price of the commodities ceaselessly. At present till, the United States to Hua Zheng duty inventory amount reachs 250 billion dollar, although at present the custom duty of be born has 34 billion dollar only, to home imports and exports has not produce apparent effect, but follow-up and all custom duty gradually economy of be born, whole world anabiosises put delay and abroad risk incident to will need to create pressure of be issued to lower levels external, affect domestic economy growth then.
Secondly, go below lever, hypostatic economy susceptive " labor pains " show gradually. After adding lever through branch of local government, enterprise, dweller, the space that door of this 3 greater part adds lever already not quite, kinetic energy of growth of the economy below indebted drive returns can accumulative risk while progressively hasten is weak. Accordingly, our country goes the determination of lever is sturdy, but in this process, because business early days is indebted too much, and financing channel has been restricted, industry financing cost still very tall, again financing pressure is increased, management sex cash flows aggravation, credit break a contact begins increase, subsequently occurrence P2P platform explodes ceaselessly thunder, "17 corps 6 division SCP001 " break a contact. Meanwhile, PPP and blame bid financing are tightened up, the capital construction investment below statistical bureau line of action adds fast bluff type to drop compared to the same period, and investment of full requirements capital construction is added compared to the same period fast glide more badly, grew 1.8% compared to the same period only in July.
Thirdly, obtain employment pressure increases. Conference of the Political Bureau puts steady obtain employment in the first, the likelihood is implicit to situation of prospective obtain employment a few be anxious. From the point of demand end, according to statistic of Ministry of Education, number of college graduate stranger was achieved 2018 8.2 million, the over 7.98 million person last year. From the point of supply end: 1) steady growth is steady obtain employment. If economy accelerates be issued to lower levels, unemployed issue will be more outstanding. 2) structural sex goes below lever setting, financing of civilian battalion industry is more difficult. Civilian look forward to attracted major obtain employment, difficulty of battalion of already of civilian battalion look forward to may bring about unemployment rate to increase, this kind of pressure is in second half of the year will be larger. In addition, there is no lack of in enterprise of break a contact appear on the market company, and beak a contract of credence of second half of the year is potential grow in quantity, and if deal with undeserved, may form what credit risk and credence contract to conduct effect, will cause unemployment in that way marked increase. 3) environmental protection is restricted to produce bring about partial enterprise to shut. Advance in last few years go producing can and environmental protection is strengthened also bring about a few enterprises to shut, make unemployment increases thereby. The dweller can control income to add first half of the year fast and actual spending gains the resident fast glide ceaselessly, showed the safeguard dweller obtain employment, pressing sex that increases dweller income. 4) trade war brings uncertainty to the obtain employment of relevant industry. Direct or trade war is indirect influence imports and exports is relevant sectional income, affect obtain employment then, if trade war escalates, the likelihood causes global economy to put delay, total slow down in demand also will bring more unemployment.
Adjusting control hasten is severe below, estate investment and house price are added compared to the same period fast still strong. Capital construction investment and estate investment are added this year fast the relation between is reflected grow for this disappear those, but estate investment is added fast quality is not high, because estate investment is added fast main support land purchases cost to pull move, build those who bring project investment to pull move rate is successive 5 months are negative. Meanwhile, policy of estate adjusting control is released thick and fast since this year, but house price rises begin to have the power that look up from June. In July 70 big in the city builds index of commodity house price to rise compared to the same period 6.6% , among them, price of house of town of a gleam of rises compared to the same period become a full member, price of 23 lines house rises compared to the same period it is respectively 6% , 7.5% , all be since this year highest. House price rose compared to the same period in July number enlarges a distensible city to 49, house price rises the city is swelled on average for 7.17% , also be since this year highest.
The become divided of estate and capital construction policy basically is to balance steady growth and windbreak risk. Conference of the Political Bureau puts forward price of house of determined keep within limits to rise, the determined unprecedented of its manner, after the conference ends before long, and other places of Shenyang, Shenzhen releases adjusting control in succession new politics, chaos of market of estate of much ground punish is resembled, live build a ministry to also put forward to accelerate make housing develop a program and ask stoutly to the city of not do one's best of building city adjusting control duty. In the meantime, a series of policy that promote capital construction investment come on stage gradually. Policy loosens closely to estate and capital construction, the reason is: The first, capital construction investment adds fast bluff type to drop compared to the same period, local financing platform suffers badly be restricted; The 2nd, estate investment maintains tenacity, sale of support of large house look forward to answers paragraph and high turnover to still can be maintained go down, relative to character, financing pressure is less than local financing platform; The 3rd, support capital construction holds base economy in the palm relatively lesserer than unlocking the risk of estate. Although policy is strengthened apparently to the support of capital construction project, but whether implementation steady growth still remains to observe, if cannot finish the economy of 6.5% to grow a target, decrease considering materiality duty is rolled out hard in short-term likelihood and the effect is not get effect instantly, may appear to policy of moment estate adjusting control so regional loosen.
Income can be controlled to add in the dweller fast before occurrence materiality promotes, see consumption is added hard fast durative rebound. On one round of dweller added lever to overdraw to consume a space partly, the dweller's belongings spends much ground and estate couple, of estate market fervent to the dweller consumption is formed squeeze an effect. Taking one with another, the dweller consumes 3 ways that add fast promotion: Be materiality decrease duty to fall cost, increase dweller income, reduce cost of civilian battalion company; 2 it is from past extensive the type, economy that depends on estate grows mode in gradually transition. 3 it is the reform that promotes supply side, break the supply system that restricts consumption of 300 million middle class to upgrade to restrain.
A week tall frequency occupies observation
2.1 industry production puts delay
Last week (on August 11, 2018 - on August 17, similarly hereinafter) , main production target puts delay, rate of blast furnace start working is 66.16% , the value before mixing keeps balance; Rate of start working of Tang Shan blast furnace falls to 51.22% , not as good as before value (53.05% ) . 6 generate electricity greatly group day all quantity of bad news coal is seven hundred and eighty-eight thousand three hundred tons, annulus comparing drops 3.29% , fall relatively before value (- 1.31% ) expand. Rate of start working of embryo of car complete steel, half steel embryo falls respectively to 67.37% , 67.07% , not as good as before value (73.51% and 68.83% ) . Be restricted to produce policy raise the quota as environmental protection, production of heating season industry will be restrained further, index of industrial production or difficult promote considerably.
Futures of 2.2 whorl steel maintains a warehouse the volume drops, coke futures price soares
Last week, annulus of rolled steel inventory is compared rise 0.7% , price of whorl steel futures drops 0.2% , the quantity that maintain a warehouse decreases 9.58% .
Beijing ferry look forward to and circumjacent area environmental protection are restricted to produce policy to raise the price of the commodities, rate of blast furnace start working tends be issued to lower levels, in the meantime, wave motion of inventory of 9 weeks of rolled steel is reduced apparently recently. Supply end, production continues to put delay; Demand end, released on August 14 " special bond publishs good about doing local government working opinion " , the requirement accelerates special bond to issue plan, capital construction invests or will greet rebound, the raw material demand such as rolled steel may appear pick up. Inventory end, be located in the history low fluctuation of rolled steel inventory is reduced apparently. In contradiction of supply and demand and small stock joint action falls, price of follow-up rolled steel has the space that rises further.
Last week, coke futures price rises greatly 7% . Supply end, environmental protection is restricted to produce pair of coke can form suppress. Demand end, profit of current level steelworks is higher, to coke purchase apiration strong, in the meantime, the grow in quantity finding money of trafficker. Inventory end, coke stock falls to low. Above element still lasts in short-term likelihood, accordingly coke price still has the space that rise.
2.3 pork price continues to rise
Last week, 28 kinds of keys monitor vegetable price annulus than rising 1.75% , go up a value before prep above (0.85% ) ; Annulus of price of the fruit of 7 kinds of keys that monitor is compared rise 0.96% , go up a value before prep above (0.93% ) ; Pork is average trade price annulus is compared rise 1.58% , go up under before value (3.71% ) , rate of exchange of countrywide pig grain picks up to 7.84:1, the value before prep above (7.72:1) .
2.4 commodity house sells: One, 3 lines rise, second line falls
Last week, 30 big in area of sale of urban commodity house grows 3.26% compared to the same period, relatively before value (3.89% ) drop, area of commodity house sale is added compared to the same period between each line city fast occurrence become divided, one, area of sale of house of commodity of 3 lines city is added compared to the same period fast rise to respectively 36.71% , 18.46% , the value is respectively before 18.29% , 12.56% , area of sale of house of commodity of second line city drops compared to the same period 14.82% , fall relatively before value (- 4.98% ) expand. Inventory respect, house of commodity of 10 big cities is put annul come than dropping 39.6% , among them house of commodity of city of line of just a little is put sell score not to rise to 34.26% , 41.14% , the value is respectively before 32.7% , 44.6% .
2.5 Central Banks above quota add makes MLF, monetary market money rate rebounds
There are 336.5 billion yuan 1 year last week period MLF expires, the Central Bank above quota add makes 383 billion yuan of MLF give to rushing, in addition, the Central Bank restarts go against counter-purchase an operation, put in 130 billion yuan 7 days to go against counter-purchase, undertake cash of 120 billion yuan of treasury puts an operation surely, a week is aggregate put in 296.5 billion yuan completely. All fronts of monetary market money rate rebounds, but still be in annual low, the fluidity between the bank keeps reasonable and abundant.
2.6 Central Banks move once more steady exchange rate, lost territory of recover of RMB exchange rate
Last week, dollar index pours fast fall after a rise, reached the high point of 96.99 for a time on August 15, subsequently fall after a rise, a week closes drop 0.21% , price drops among RMB add dollar 0.71% . Nightly on August 15, play detective quickly in the RMB exchange rate of bank and off shore, close on August 15 23:00, off shore RMB add dollar falls defeat 6.95 col, drop exceed 500 a little bit, drop nearly 0.8% ; In bank RMB time of add dollar Beijing 15 days of 23:00 receive a reply 6.935, relatively go up to trade day and night dish drop 514 base point.
From devalue anticipate in light of, with 1 year period NDF measures a RMB to devalue to the irrelevance of immediate exchange rate anticipate, can see the RMB devalues anticipate rise to 0.78% , devalue anticipate warm up somewhat. On August 16, show a story according to the road, headquarters of Central Bank Shanghai informs, fluctuate in view of price of RMB of near future off shore bigger, this day rises, shanghai distinguishs from trade Zhang business accounting is unit (abbreviation FTU) pour out of formulary of short duration 3 times to be not carried out completely, each bank must not carry account of come-and-go of a person of same business to be deposited outside the condition or tear open put RMB fund, must not affect hypostatic economy to cross condition capital truely to close at the same time pay demand. Suffer this effect, that day exchange rate of off shore RMB from 6.95 soare to 6.86, call in all the way 10 col.
The RMB still has devalue pressure, but the Central Bank puts forward to undertake going against cycle adjustment to foreign currency supply and demand when necessary in executive report of 2 quarters monetary policy, what appear possibly as market of follow-up foreign currency is fluctuant, go against the tool such as periodic factor to be returned to possibly also afresh.
This week is important data and incident
END
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