Is what Chinese shift needs " fractionation " or " fractionation IPO " ?

China of vision of picture origin @

Chinese UniCom and Chinese telecommunication can be passed almost every year amalgamative, same, chinese shift also is met from time to time come out fractionation hearsay.

On August 9, 2018, chinese shift issues report of outstanding achievement of 2018 year metaphase in Hong Kong. After the news briefing ends, chinese shift carries out president to hold presiding apparitor Li Yue concurrently to express to media of Hong Kong area, arranging interior in the consideration at present 3 tear apart to 4 companies appear on the market, as operation of apt choice independence, less as correlation of large network business, can the company of clear business accounting, in order to assure each square shareholder interest.

What Dan Ji blames is, reporter of blue whale TMT calls China when mobile and relevant controller, the other side expresses, do not release the spot in Hong Kong outstanding achievement, do not be clear about particular case. Subsequently, feedback to the reporter again, after through Hong Kong the colleague understands a situation, this message is disloyal, li Yue never has published afore-mentioned addresses publicly.

That evening, " money is new " the respect expresses to the reporter, news source is reliable, mobile Li Yue has said afore-mentioned speech really in.

On August 10 in the morning, china is mobile and relevant chief another change one's intention, express to reporter of blue whale TMT, this message is belonged to solid, the colleague that is Hong Kong does not understand the situation at that time...

Its development, invert ceaselessly again, public opinion also is fermenting ceaselessly. Chinese shift and fractionation the combination of two words, sparked of the masses and public opinion " excited dot " .

Fractionation moves in, and tear open minute of relevant business IPO, both the distinction that has essence. The floating argument in fractionation, flank makes clear all the time since the people is right communication operation business alone big, or it is an industry " forestall " situation current situation expresses dissatisfaction. And business IPO makes clear related fractionation, mobile oneself business does not undertake any adjustment in, just appear on the market through tearing open split phase to close business, make the market new to its subordinate business appraise value. Through raising as less as big gateway couplet business market prise, reduce the burden that main body business spreads out in profit weak difficult position falls ceaselessly, benefit somewhat to integral business thereby.

Common saying says, "The world general trends, close long divide surely, cent is long close surely " . The development course of domestic telegraphic industry is a paragraph of ceaseless fractionation, cent cent that recombines ceaselessly closes close the past event. 1994, in electronic ministry, Electricity Department, railway ministry investment of 3 ministries and commissions falls, chinese UniCom holds water. Of the same age, auspicious all believes finite liability company to hold water, total bureau of general post office of Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications and telecommunication business accounting of independence of two branches departure.

Came 1999 2001, to prevent Chinese telecommunication " forestall " , the satellitic business of Chinese telecommunication, mobile business, paging business, tear open for 4 merge into respectively China is defended, UniCom of Chinese shift, China. Telecommunication leaves firm network business only, be called by the outside 6+1 pattern, alleged " 7 hero " .

Subsequently, 2002, chinese telecommunication is torn apart again, 10 provinces and auspicious connect telegraphic north merge into Chinese net is connected. 2008, chinese iron connects the shift in merging into, chinese net is connected and net of Chinese UniCom G incorporates, chinese telecommunication and net of Chinese UniCom C are amalgamative. So far, domestic telegraphic market begins to perform mobile, telegraphic, UniCom " the the Three Kingdoms is killed " .

Mobile from telecommunication " cut " , establish a portal additionally. Resource is done not have at that time, below the circumstance that personnel shorts, become telegraphic today market to go up " a dark horse " , expect of a lot of people is less than. China is mobile in the TDD-LTE of the TD-SCDMA of 3G and 4G two kinds of networks make type, relevant technology, compare with photograph of UniCom, telegraphic WCDMA, CDMA2000, FDD-LTE, below the immature, circumstance that does not have an advantage, still form oligarch effect, cause of formation is complex.

On one hand, 2G times, national endowment appoint assessment strength is not great, what competition develops as mobile Internet height is intense today. Meanwhile, telecommunication did not obtain mobile business license plate tardy, place Yu Xiaoling to know business. UniCom has GSM and CDMA two Zhang Guli, incompatible, enclothe the network with limits, finite capacity, "Wrestle of valuable assistant each other " , and blemish of presence of double standard business. China's mobile and single GSM network, business development is relatively dedicated, held support of the people of climate favourable geographical position.

On the other hand, in mobile and in-house personage expresses, chinese shift executive capability is stronger, rate of iron tower construction is rapid, the amount is much, network quality and mobile phone signal are better than UniCom, telecommunication. In the market policy with the effort of inertial, mobile employee, efficient market, 3 respects are integrated the reason facilitates below, formed scope effect and network lock to decide effect, then overmatch perseverance is stubborn.

Public data and data show, china is telegraphic " north and south is torn apart " later. Came 2003 between 2007, run of Chinese mobile market controls share from 36.2% , 37.8% , 39.6% , 43.0% rise to 49.64% , can see battalion restrains growth of share year after year. Under photograph comparing, chinese UniCom from 2003 14.2% glide to 13.84% 2007, china is telegraphic from 33.3% glide to 24.84% , chinese net is connected from 16.3% glide to 11.68% .

2008 " amalgamative similar terms " later, chinese shift still receives portion to rank the first with the battalion of 47.18% , uniCom share rises to 31.44 ％ somewhat, be on the 2nd. Came 2013 2015, get OTT enterprise (small letter) concussion, profit of Chinese mobile net drops 3 years continuously, profit of the net since 2016 begins to pick up.

Comparative business of 3 big operation is close two years the outstanding achievement of half reports, 2016, mobile battalion receives 708.4 billion yuan in (RMB, similarly hereinafter) , net profit 108.7 billion yuan; Chinese telegraphic battalion receives 352.3 billion yuan, net profit 18 billion yuan; UniCom battalion receives 274.2 billion yuan, net profit is 625 million yuan only. Profit of a net moves to exceed UniCom, telegraphic total in, net is occupied than be as high as 85.4% .

2017, mobile battalion closes in 740.5 billion, net profit 114.3 billion; UniCom battalion closes 274.8 billion, net 1.828 billion (not eliminate revised a project solely 2017 relevant asset discards as useless net loss) ; Telegraphic battalion closes 366.2 billion, net 18.1 billion. Mobile net is occupied in than 85.15% , chinese UniCom in the course service revenue grew compared to the same period 2015 - 4.2% , cash flows - 49.58 billion, net profit from 2015 10.56 billion 625 million to 2016, steep fall 94.1% later, come true " rejuvenescent " .

2018 first half of the year, mobile battalion closes in 391.8 billion, net 65.6 billion; UniCom 149.1 billion, net 5.9 billion; Telegraphic 193 billion, net 13.6 billion, mobile net is occupied in than 77.1% , hold communication industry gain is big continuously. Among them, mobile user amount 906 million, uniCom 302 million, telegraphic 282 million. 2014 up to now, amount of user of dealer of 3 big operation all is rising firm. Although 2018 first half of the year, shift adds shift completely client and the clean user that add 4G under telecommunication, mobile and both net increment and UniCom are adjacent. As a result of in cardinal number of mobile and overall user is large, and double total user number is telegraphic UniCom the sum almost. The user is used inertial the difference that serves with telecommunication, make inside short time, won't appear large-scale user " turn net " behavior.

Wired broadband respect, mobile 135 million, telegraphic 141 million, uniCom 78.92 million. Shift and telegraphic difference are narrowing ceaselessly, shift gets account of history of be confined to, do not have firm network all the time relevant license plate. Connected with iron 2008 amalgamative, relevant business did not obtain very good confluence, iron is connected all the time " free " at shift besides. The shift in the bottom obtained firm network business to manage accredit 2013, 2015 with 31.88 billion buy iron to connect, begin firm network professional work. To 2016, shift exceeds seventy-five million two hundred and thirty-six thousand of UniCom with seventy-seven million six hundred and twenty-four thousand user, second at telecommunication 123 million.

Move in with market of low ARPU rapid dilate, uniCom ARPU was worth 63.6 yuan 2015, telegraphic 56.3 yuan, mobile 32 yuan. 2018 first half of the year, uniCom 46.3 yuan, telegraphic and integrated ARPU is worth 52.5 yuan, mobile 34.8 yuan. Mobile amplitude is not big, uniCom glides relatively apparent. The low that moves to give a broadband through 4G formula is free mode, acquire an user. After speech business glides continuously, find business point of growth.

The personage inside Ceng Youye says, uniCom, telegraphic why " hit " China is mobile nevertheless, either opponent is too strong, however oneself too " water " .

Communication analyst Ma Jihua expresses to reporter of blue whale TMT, not be China before what shift does is too good, however what Chinese UniCom does is too poor. Old experience makes Chinese UniCom and Tecent same suffer from on the strategy is lazy disease, can stare at adversary to follow only. When the opportunity with banner 3G comes, uniCom does not know how to be answered instead, do not do of one mind of good essential technique to want to take the market easily.

Telegraphic 2018 industry will increase a network to carry further fast fall to be spent painfully, cancel discharge to roam cost, endowment cost reduces mobile network flow at least inside year 30% . Trade situation is grimmer and grimmer, speech business falls deepen, had become normal state. 2017, income of mobile speech business compares on one year in, drop 25.3% . Speech business holds proportion of communication service revenue 23.5% than going up year drop 10.2% . Speech income occupies UniCom to come than dropping 13.3% . Telegraphic speech business occupies battalion to receive proportion 16.8% , relatively dropped 2016 12.1% .

Labour believes a ministry " communication already aid ran a condition first half of the year 2018 " data shows, came in June 2017 June 2018, gross accumulative total is in telegraphic business to grow ceaselessly, accumulative total of telegraphic business income fell in January 2018 to the nadir hind, continue to glide. The mobile telephone communicates the quantity continues to glide, countrywide mobile telephone grows to drop compared to the same period first half of the year 4.6% , ground of solid script for story telling drops compared to the same period 19.6 ％ . Mobile data and Internet business income are added fast put delay.

Business of 3 big operation is in outstanding achievement report, different level alludes, small profits but quick turnover, low cost thin allowance, reduce concerned policy to ask to be opposite hard the influence of management outstanding achievement, future will be accelerated manage to discharge and the pace that digitlizes service transition.

UniCom, telegraphic when to be in 5G comes, realize changeover, bend overtake, face young user market, the professional work that made different pitch is adjusted. UniCom rolls out ice to stimulate drench discharge not formula of set limit to, with Tecent collaboration rolled out king to block business. And telecommunication is in annals was mentioned 2017, use entire network to connect terminal to extend large flow product, entire network connects sales volume to exceed 130 million, the user grows a space to get extending. Additional, telecommunication and company of much home Internet cooperate cheek by jowl, face young user group to roll out more than 30 Internet to block a product. UniCom and telecommunication, to shift, its compete to still stay in the level that discharge, conduit runs constitutionally.

And produce percussive to Chinese shift truly, the Tecent king that UniCom of nothing is more... than rolls out blocks business. On April 26, uniCom 2018 on partner congress, the data that UniCom publishs shows, tecent king blocks user dimensions to exceed 100 million. Because UniCom respect sets, everybody can handle a piece of card only, in annul door perhaps turn cannot deal with again after the formula, so UniCom thinks user data is true and reliable.

To this, communication analyst Du Jianmin expressed doubt however. Think Wang Kakuan of Wang Ka ＋ takes UniCom to was not brought considerable add an user newly, just transferred oneself to put quantity old user in great quantities. The user dimensions of 100 million, put in moisture likely. If the agent raises card, basic level employee is forced to raise the behavior such as card because of outstanding achievement index.

According to UniCom announcement of metaphase outstanding achievement showed 2018, uniCom 2I2C business grows quickly, the user achieves 77 million, drive 4G user to grow quickly, with the dimensions of 100 million user that announced in April somewhat difference. Business of 3 big operation releases operation data shows first half of the year, uniCom telecommunication is in 2, user growth quantity is more apparent March, but UniCom is in 4 to June, the month adds client number to appear to glide substantially completely. June with shift user fast jumps appearance comparing, appear aftereffect is insufficient. Telegraphic respect annual is new 2017 increase discharge product user to be close to 60 million, first half of the year although did not announce specific figure, from the point of user increment, telecommunication is managed through discharge already right business causes an effect related UniCom.

Look from the user practical experience to Wang Ka, those who although sell,have card of king of user feedback UniCom is cheap, the fare of total of the last month is not low, tall even at common formula. After new interest passes, the market public praise that stay is general. A trade public figure expresses, king get stuck and cannot from go up at all what to turn round, uniCom still is in downhill.

Make UniCom very awkward still depend on wired broadband business, user growth curve is almost first half of the year linear. Wide report is in a year short between a long time, the user counts the in part that obtained UniCom. There is wide report after pursue and attack, there is telegraphic, shift before grind pressure, the gain space of UniCom is compressed further.

Public data shows, amount of 4G radical station moves to achieve 1.87 million in 2017, cover the throughout the country the population of 99% . UniCom 4G base the station counts 850 thousand, telegraphic 1.17 million, both the sum is mobile and adjacent. After 5G comes, mean frequency Duan Genggao, between tower and tower more concentrated, cost comparing arrives from 3G 4G is a lot of more expensive. In iteration phase, the cost of operation business 4G still did not call in, the construction that must throw 5G again plans. Came 2014 2017, only in shift throws 366.9 billion yuan to be used at 4G network in all. The capital pressure that 5G carries dimension, fixed costs is brought to UniCom, telecommunication is sure to be more than shift, so, it is more difficult that UniCom, telecommunication exceeds mobile likelihood instead.

A personage inside course of study expresses, from 5G angle is told, structure of double oligarch of prospective operation business is finer. However, "Continue fractionation (in mobile) will bring about what communication standard speech counterpoises to drop. Current, can adopt only give aid to puny, is not to hit control banner fashion. On the other hand, uniCom and telegraphic early have relevant collaboration in network respect, not was necessary to undertake the enterprise incorporates. Look from the history, incorporate a few times of UniCom, did not narrow not only with the difference of the person that precede, bigger and bigger instead, cause 1+1 to be less than the situation of 1.5. " Ma Jihua says.

Fractionation moves in facing, the hearsay with telegraphic, amalgamative UniCom, be in when thing tripartite different time paragraph undertook refuting a rumor respectively. On news briefing of outstanding achievement of mobile 2018 metaphase, mobile president Shang Bing expresses in, chinese shift is first half of the year this year in process of mobile business development, be faced with do not be restricted the enormous pressure that formula of discharge endowment cost brings, cause user growth and discharge portion to be in interval of be issued to lower levels. Subsequently, shift comes out to be saved each in will in succession depress employee stake, do not fall to 3 stage manager firewood, will fall again firewood pressure changes average employee body entirely.

Operation business needs to finish national endowment already appoint outstanding achievement assessment, need to be below the premise that makes sure the user serves again, finish carry fast fall cost task. Between operation business free, do not be restricted discharge competition turns white-hot, aggravate of broken window effect " mutual harm " . Basic level employee in succession " escape " , make the telegraphic industry of all up letting a person becomes more screwy. Cannot pass fractionation again in business of 3 big operation, recombine break an industry depressing when long already atmosphere, operation business should undertake significant cut and fractionation from oneself more actually, assure the constituent efficiency of burgeoning business.

Business of 3 big operation is in new business market, not was in the business such as Internet tacitly income specific and listed. Mobile, UniCom is right Internet business income fumbles related its, listed the corresponding period to increase scale and user incremental ratio only exemple. Metaphase income decomposed telecommunication 2018 in, other income is occupied than inadequacy 0.8% .

With " transition " the movement is the biggest in shift is exemple, the shift in Feburary 2017 rolled out MVNO service in England, 2017 year report returns exposure, with video, and read income to grow 67.2% with 10.3% , with the bag annual trades the forehead exceeds 2.1 trillion yuan, join of content couplet net is counted 229 million, exceed a RMB with education 4 billion. Metaphase report showed 2018, game of Mi cluck video exceeds 4.3 billion during the world cup, break through with the bag 1.36 trillion, dimensions of content couplet net 384 million. But specific to overseas business and Internet business income does not say a single word.

Come from auroral big data Q2 data showed 2018, during the world cup, annulus comparing grew permeability of Mi cluck video 101.5% , achieve 3.7% . Although rank push forward before 10, rank 8. With 46.1% of Tecent video, love is strange art 43.6% , of actor cruel 30.3% still gap is huge. The direct contest that Mi clucks is right CCTV image sound, the advantage in Yu Pin all ready and all and free. Its the annulus of 104.6% compares increase rate, tall even Yu Mi clucks. After the world cup passes, the user is agglutinant drop, mi cluck is probable again fall after a rise arrives to be nodded normally.

Mix mobily read and mix packet of business, the rank did not appear inside sheet of a list of names posted up. Especially, the product of mobile conduct financial transactions with bag business and Internet enterprise pays treasure, small letter etc, cannot place on a par. Pay treasure to come in home the preference of 4 lines city spends a rank to all be in 5 in, the APP permeability that has in the market is overall in the rank, be next to the gregarious APP that Tecent fastens. With Chinese telecommunication already the ala of be born pays, even has huge gap. Meanwhile, 2.1 trillion yuan, 1.36 trillion yuan " tremendous " digital backside moisture after all how old, unmanned and witting.

A mobile employee expresses, no matter be Mi,cluck video still is mixed packet of business, operation business downloads application through requirement employee, the vivid jerk that tastes in order to raise high yield and trade quantity, send allergy of basic level employee, business development and market rule not agree with.

When operation business is popularizing the business below the banner, always take seriously add an user newly, ignore old user group, distinction of new old user is treated. Without one exception, it is to eat decided old user to bind decide all sorts of APP, the bank gets stuck, do not change easily the soft costal region of telephone number. Give new old user ceaselessly " digging pit " , brought about heavy consumption person malcontent.

"Operation business is burgeoning the question with the biggest business is mechanism problem, is appraise cost issue not just. For instance, talent management. Appear on the market through fractionation this kind changes showing mechanism, will promote the management of business capability, implementation more commercialize run. " communication analyst Xiang Ligang says.

Public data shows, numerous subsidiary is owned below Chinese mobile banner, eliminate 31 provinces (municipality, municipality directly under the Central Government) operation subsidiary. Specific include Chinese mobile group designing institute limited company, medium move investment controls a finite liability company, medium move content couplet net is limited company, medium move online service limited company, medium move (Suzhou) software technology limited company, medium move (Hangzhou) limited company of science and technology of culture of cluck of IT limited company, Mi, . This among them as little as correlation of large network business professional work, company of cluck having Mi, medium mobile terminal, medium move content couplet net, medium move investment.

Mi cluck company, medium move content couplet net, medium the new business such as mobile terminal board piece in the market not lukewarm not fire, place compares awkwardness all the time. After the world cup passes, mi cluck and Suningda become sports zoology strategy to cooperate. Sports of get through PP and platform of Mi cluck video, make in facilities of match direct seeding, sports, content wait for a respect to begin collaboration. Yan Zhongwei of Mi cluck COO ever expressed, mi cluck future will continue deep ploughing sporting page piece.

Copyright of costly sports match direct seeding, shed media platform Netflix to be carried all the time with what low additional cost makes the United States the greatest do not have interest. And home is happy inspect sports to make " appreciation of ＋ of hardware of intelligence of ＋ of content of copyright of match operation ＋ serves " 4 big board piece of the dream broken still be in " yesterday " . Sports content is managed time this slower, user increment is finite. In China mechanism of mobile big frame falls, mi cluck be enlightened marchs too sports " break out of an encirclement " , indeed not easy.

After calculating fractionation IPO, relevant business is in short-term inside obtain relatively higher than large network business appraise cost, but without very good abidance value is reflected, will for a long time look to also do not have investment value. "The business such as Mi cluck needs to learn to Internet company, fractionation is OK more agile, also can do a lot of previously not dare, the business that cannot do. Business has operation business now the characteristic of diversity, cannot bind operation together with large network business, it is to do not have method and Internet company opposed so. " the personage inside course of study expresses.

[titanium media author introduces: Zhao Chen of reporter of blue whale TMT hopes]