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[market reviewing]
Last week because prospect of American soybean crop is Anacreontic, and Sino-US the 3rd round of negotiation fails to gain headway, beautiful beans issues defeat considerably, among them agreement newspaper will close at 854.75 cent in November / bushel, drop 37 cent. Because import cost fall after a rise and epidemic situation of domestic swine fever to spread, weak force fall after a rise walks along even fabaceous continuance situation, up to Zhou Wu, m01 agreement newspaper closes at 3128 yuan / ton, zhou Du drops 96 a little bit, drop 2.98% ; Beans of merchandise on hand dregses of rice to continue to adjust manage mostly, end Zhou Wu, coastal quote 3150-3240 yuan / ton, relatively 40-120 drops at the beginning of week yuan / ton.
[investment suggests]
Result of go on a tour of inspection of a week of by a definite date of go on a tour of inspection of crop of ministry of Pro Farmer Chinese and Western shows last week, new Ji Meidou or will receive big high yield, predicting per unit area yield 53 cattail / acre, 51.6 what USDA predicted prep above in August. Enter in August the last ten-day of a month, window of weather hype time ends basically, considering in sight of beautiful beans high yield, as reap pressure arrival, beautiful beans will still continue weak force moves, sino-US last week commerce negotiates and do not have materiality progress in addition, have alleviation sign hard before two countries will lead meeting November, beautiful beans is entered in succession reap season, if export data is exhausted weak, beautiful beans price has hard rebound space. Because domestic Africa pig is pestilential the reason is northeast to south spread, market concern breeds a concentration undersell live pig will cause a beans to dregs of rice demand is atrophic, at present soja compresses quantity freeboard, the beans dregses of rice inventory pressure returns, the partial area such as Shandong urges sky of benefit of pick up the goods to hit press a beans to dregs of rice, short-term dregs of rice the explore below price weak potential is propped up situation, but because trade war of short duration is difficult,end, and Brazilian beans sale enters end, the beautiful beans that the tradition enters after September supplies month, at the appointed time raw material is insufficient, will still import high cost beautiful beans, oily factory holds out valence, distribute be expected to fall nevertheless.
Empty sheet of proposal M01 early days stops in 3000 lower part be filled with, pay close attention to lower part 2980, 2960 prop up; 09-01 price difference goes tall as scheduled, early days is covering much sheet to stop stage by stage in 85 upper part be filled with.
Risk: Trade controversial issue exceeds anticipate, beautiful beans exit exceeds anticipate.
[information]
Group of go on a tour of inspection of crop of ministry of Chinese and Western of Pro Farmer of 5 United States shows last week, soybean crop was predicting United States 2018 4.683 billion bushel, per unit area yield is every acre on average 53 bushel, this beforehand Ministry of Agriculture of United States of appraise prep above (USDA) the record-breaking turnout that made on August 10 beforehand appraise, USDA anticipates American soybean crop is 4.586 billion bushel at that time, per unit area yield is every flower 51.6 bushel.
Data of the world barn shows, on August 18 - became on August 24, soja of domestic haven entrance arrives actually harbor 32 boats 2.03 million tons, heretofore arrived in August 102 boats 6.524 million tons, still partial soja already arrived harbor, but not discharge. Entrance soja forecasted 8.479 million tons August, soja will arrive September harbor is newest anticipate be in 8 million tons, relatively anticipate last week fall 500 thousand tons, preliminary October anticipate maintain 7.6 million tons, soja will arrive in November harbor is preliminary beforehand appraise maintains 7 million tons.
Soja of oily factory of countrywide each district compresses last week gross 191.57 tons (piece dregs of rice 1513403 tons, give oil 363983 tons) , relatively before a week compresses the volume drops 1.84% , compress when Zhou Dadou switch on the mobile phone rate for 54.84% , drop 1.04% . Did not come to two weeks of oily factories to switch on the mobile phone because rate draws near lunar base stops machine overhaul to be in the majority, switch on the mobile phone or reduce somewhat, this Zhou You factory compresses the quantity is controlled in 1.88 million tons.
One, domestic beans dregses of rice factory price of merchandise on hand
2, base poor analysis
3, valence needs an analysis
4, soja haven inventory and compress profit
5, breed profit
6, the analysis that maintain a warehouse
7, grow area weather and forecast
8, express evenly beforehand appraise
9, beautiful beans exports plan
Analyst: Mou Qicui (investment seeks advice from a qualification: Z0001640)
[significant statement]
The information in this report all originates can obtain a data publicly, the letter is built in cast futures do one's best accurate and reliable, but do not do any assurance to the accuracy of these information and integrality, invest accordingly, responsibility conceit. This report does not form an individual to invest a proposal, also invest target, financial standing or need without what consider individual client is special. Lv of client take an examination reports whether any medium opinions or proposal accord with his originally specific situation.
