New act passes a tax, to consuming influence geometry? -- China achieve bond daily 20180903

Debt city invests strategy: New act passes a tax, it is worth while to decrease what duty offset expends to pull a movement to use expect; Local debt supply adds quantity setting, local debt is right of debt of other interest rate squeeze an effect to will be shown ceaselessly; Cheating cloud of rising market wave weirs, devalue pressure very closely associated with each other, the metaphase of overlay calamity weather is affected, inflation anticipates it is bad to go up easily below. We think at present no matter debt city is the absolute level that ceases from the ticket or get a space from capital benefit for relatively chicken ribs, proposal investor looks to be moved less more, careful operation.

New act passes a tax, offset expends it is worth while to pull a movement to use hope for. On August 31 afternoon, the 5th times via standing committee of National People's Congress of 13 whole nations about revising the decision of law of individual income tax the conference votes through. This second duty changes the part that basically adjusts to have two shares, it is a duty case ask for a dot to rise by 3500 yuan reach 5000 yuan, expand 3% , 10% , the class of low tax rate of 20% 3 archives is apart from, narrow the class of 25% tax rate is apart from, begin to carry out from October 1, 2 it is new the regulation includes a tax law filial education, continue interest of loan of medical treatment of education, a serious illness, housing perhaps lives the defray such as old person of chummage gold, support gives special and add deduct. Spur action to strength of this duty derate and offset cost, we divide a part to undertake calculating:

The first part, tone asks for the dot, influence that enlarges low level duty to be apart from pair of taxpayer to be able to control income since whole duty bigger. Ask for a dot to adjust the influence that reach 5000 yuan and revises tax form to be apart from pair of taxpayer to be able to control income from 3500 yuan to will rising, the People's Daily before this already made calculate in detail, the result shows the limits that reduce tax is in 0~27960 yuan differ, if we take inferior and applicable tax rate 10% come estimation, taxpayer year decrease the amount of tax to be paid, can control income to will increase 540~3060 yuan. At present taxpayer mouth is hypothesis our country 30 million person. From this estimation is all taxpayer year can control income to will increase 162~918 100 million yuan, increase expenditure 108.54~615.06 100 million yuan.

To the 2nd part, new the regulation includes a tax law filial education, continue interest of loan of medical treatment of education, a serious illness, housing perhaps lives the defray such as old person of chummage gold, support gives special and add deduct, because this part carries out detailed rules to had been not made clear, we have each defray specified number calculating respectively, come according to moderate tax rate the forehead of this part derate spends estimation.

Children teachs a respect, cent learns paragraph in light of, before our country learns, mix phase of middle and primary school, average high school, medium duty phase town is unripe all defray is ten thousand one hundred yuan respectively, eighteen thousand two hundred yuan, eleven thousand four hundred yuan, simple and average reach town obligation education is born all domestic education expenses is thirteen thousand two hundred yuan. We assume the average per capita of 30 million taxpayer teachs defray every year to all be thirteen thousand two hundred yuan, because this taxpayer children teachs total outlay,be 30 million *13200=3960 100 million.

Next, respect of medical treatment of a serious illness, we take pay of Medical Protection of town dweller average per capita according to defray of a serious illness 50% come estimation, defray of medical treatment of average per capita of our country town was 1029 yuan first half of the year 2018, if second half of the year and expenses is identical first half of the year, reckon defray of a serious illness of taxpayer average per capita was 1029 yuan 2018, so total taxpayer year all defray of a serious illness is 30 million *1029=308.7 100 million yuan.

Again, housing loan interest perhaps lives chummage gold field, the person that the need in hypothesis taxpayer pays housing loan interest and housing rent is occupied each 50% . Consider housing loan interest, at present expenses of interest of annual housing loan is one thousand three hundred and forty-two billion three hundred and twenty million, hypothesis taxpayer is the age paragraph in 25~59 year old town population, from this roughly the housing loan interest of estimation taxpayer is 47.31 billion. Housing hires golden field, view grind the world releases " 2018-2023 year current situation of dimensions of operation of market of the Chinese building estate that rent and investment prospect program forecast a report " show, at present dimensions of the housing market that rent is our country 1.1 trillion, can get our country taxpayer according to above method estimation year all chummage is 38.77 billion. Because this branch gives altogether,be 86.08 billion.

Finally, respect of defray of support old person, the old person number that raises considering taxpayer is errant, a few have the taxpayer of brotherly sister to need not assume responsibility of provide for the aged completely, but most " 8090 " to give birth to a family alone, two taxpayer raise a family 4 old people, expenses of provide for the aged is larger, integrated consideration, we assume taxpayer average per capita brings up an old person, month of hypothesis old person all defray is 500 yuan (have pension and annuities considering partial old person) , defray of taxpayer provide for the aged is 30 million *500=150 100 million.

By above the estimation of 4 parts looks, year all deduct base to be 3960+308.7+860.8+150=5279.5 100 million yuan. Guard estimation, this part is deducted with inferior tax rate 10% will calculate, annual taxpayer increases can control income altogether to be fifty-two billion seven hundred and ninety-four million yuan, will increase expenditure thirty-five billion three hundred and seventy-three million yuan. Add shift the place is collected since whole duty, enlarge low level duty to be apart from increasing expenditure 462.27~968.79 100 million yuan, will integratedly look, the expenditure that two shares increase will be pulled move consumptive expenses to grow 0.11~0.22 percent, pull the GDP that uses defray law business accounting to add fast increase 0.05~0.11 percent. Because we guard estimation according to inferior tax rate, effective tax changes the effect to may be close friends than forecasting, accordingly, cost of the offset that reduce tax and GDP are added fast it is certain to have pull a movement to use.

One, bond market looks into: New act passes a tax, to consuming influence geometry?

New act passes a tax, to consuming influence geometry? On August 31 afternoon, the 5th times via standing committee of National People's Congress of 13 whole nations about revising the decision of law of individual income tax the conference votes through. This second duty changes the part that basically adjusts to have two shares, it is a duty case ask for a dot to rise by 3500 yuan reach 5000 yuan, expand 3% , 10% , the class of low tax rate of 20% 3 archives is apart from, narrow the class of 25% tax rate is apart from, 30% , 35% , class of higher tax rate spurs 45% 3 file changeless, begin to carry out from October 1, 2 it is new the regulation includes a tax law filial education, continue interest of loan of medical treatment of education, a serious illness, housing perhaps lives the defray such as old person of chummage gold, support gives special and add deduct. Spur action to strength of this duty derate and offset cost, we divide a part to undertake calculating:

The first part, tone asks for the dot, influence that enlarges low level duty to be apart from pair of taxpayer to be able to control income since whole duty bigger. Ask for a dot to adjust the influence that reach 5000 yuan and revises tax form to be apart from pair of taxpayer to be able to control income from 3500 yuan to will rising, the People's Daily before this already made calculate in detail, according to the result that the People's Daily calculates, the limits that reduce tax is in 0~27960 yuan differ, guard estimation, we take inferior and applicable tax rate 10% come estimation, taxpayer year decrease the amount of tax to be paid, can control income to will increase 540~3060 yuan. Because our country never has announced pay taxes number, taxpayer is counted can estimation. 2015 committee member of countrywide the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, gu Kang of former director of institute of science of finance of Ministry of finance ever expressed, our country overall taxpayer is 28 million person only, hypothesis wages rises, at the same time evade taxation of consideration evade taxes reduces the taxpayer that bring about to increase, and this second case ask for a dot to rise will bring about taxpayer to decrease, at present taxpayer mouth is hypothesis our country 30 million person. From this estimation is all taxpayer year can control income to will increase 162~918 100 million yuan. Because the consumptive expenses of our country was occupied 2017,can control income proportion for 67% , because this will increase expenditure 108.54~615.06 100 million yuan.

It is filial education field above all, our country children teachs defray to did not publish specific data, do not have statistical data to be able to be drawn lessons from, but the home that before we teach institute of Yo finance science this according to Beijing University China, releases first investigation data that teachs defray technically in the light of the family, pay of education of children of family of indication our country is higher as a result, and urban and rural and area difference is bigger, spending of education of city of a gleam of is highest. Because our country taxpayer is less, 3% what hold totaller than inadequacy number, taxpayer of a rural area is fewer, accordingly we consider town district only. Particular branch learns paragraph in light of, before our country learns, mix phase of middle and primary school, average high school, medium duty phase town is unripe all defray is ten thousand one hundred yuan respectively, eighteen thousand two hundred yuan, eleven thousand four hundred yuan, simple and average reach town obligation education is born all domestic education expenses is thirteen thousand two hundred yuan. From the point of population angle, 2017, our country 0-15 year old population is two hundred and forty-seven million one hundred and ninety thousand person, it is considering town population proportion 58.5% , because obligation of town of this our country teachs level population to be one hundred and forty-four million six hundred and fifty thousand person, population of duty of ambitious Yu Na, go further 2 average per capita are husband and wife of the part in considering taxpayer mouth taxpayer, also having a share is single taxpayer, in still having partial family taxpayer more than a child, consider above case integratedly, we assume the average per capita of 30 million taxpayer teachs defray every year to all be thirteen thousand two hundred yuan, because this taxpayer children teachs total outlay,be 30 million *13200=3960 100 million.

Next, respect of medical treatment of a serious illness, do not have statistical data likewise. On one hand, deduct sort of detailed rules, a serious illness at present affirmatory, specific deduct means to wait to all do not have specific provision, on the other hand, incidence of a disease of a serious illness is inferior, and it is more one-time, because of defray of this a serious illness won't in successive years is deducted, but generally speaking, expenses of a serious illness is larger, for example the disease such as tumor, cost at every turn hundred thousands of, the proportion that takes pay of total medical treatment is larger, because this deducts the specified amount to a serious illness very hard estimation, this data can rough estimation. We take pay of Medical Protection of town dweller average per capita according to defray of a serious illness 50% come estimation, defray of medical treatment of average per capita of our country town was 1029 yuan first half of the year 2018, if second half of the year and expenses is identical first half of the year, reckon defray of a serious illness of taxpayer average per capita was 1029 yuan 2018, so total taxpayer year all defray of a serious illness is 30 million *1029=308.7 100 million yuan.

Again, housing loan interest perhaps lives chummage gold field, because Chinese loan buys a room to occupy taller, in this estimation our oversight entire section buys house part population, the person that the need in hypothesis taxpayer pays housing loan interest and housing rent is occupied each 50% . Above all, consider housing loan interest, remaining sum of loan of our country housing was in June 2018 23.8 trillion, average interest rate is countrywide head flatlet 5.64% , accordingly computation of rough cipher out reachs expenses of interest of annual housing loan is one thousand three hundred and forty-two billion three hundred and twenty million, hypothesis taxpayer is the age paragraph in 25~59 year old town population, computation reachs this part person is four hundred and twenty-five million five hundred and ninety-eight thousand person, from this roughly the housing loan interest of estimation taxpayer is 1500/42559.8*13423.2=473.1 100 million. Housing hires golden field, view grind the world releases " 2018-2023 year current situation of dimensions of operation of market of the Chinese building estate that rent and investment prospect program forecast a report " show, at present dimensions of the housing market that rent is our country 1.1 trillion, can get our country taxpayer according to above method estimation year all chummage is 38.77 billion. Because this branch gives altogether,be 86.08 billion.

Finally, respect of defray of support old person, our country population is aged increasingly aggravating, expenses of provide for the aged is larger. Since founding a state, our country was experienced first population is born height, namely 1949, was born 1957 " 50 hind " . According to data statistic, 1952-1957 year China year all birthrate is achieved thousand 35, natural increase rate is achieved thousand 22. Because this reflects this estimation, future adds 65-70 newly every year 5 years year old old person near 13.37 million. "50 hind " nowadays already 60 years old of above, decide expenses of our country provide for the aged is larger. Our country reached above population 60 years old to reach 240 million person 2017. Population is aged be sure to bring demand of huge defray of provide for the aged. The old person number that raises considering taxpayer is errant, a few have the taxpayer of brotherly sister to need not assume responsibility of provide for the aged completely, but most " 8090 " to give birth to a family alone, two taxpayer raise a family 4 old people, expenses of provide for the aged is larger, integrated consideration, we assume taxpayer average per capita brings up an old person, month of hypothesis old person all defray is 500 yuan (have pension and annuities considering partial old person) , defray of taxpayer provide for the aged is 30 million *500=150 100 million.