Punish aids the oil that push cloth to achieve 8 Zhou Xin is tall, analyse Iranian crude oil to spea

On September 3 dish in Bulunte in November crude oil futures dish in go up for a time even more 1% , high point reachs 78.44 dollars inside refresh day / bucket, achieve since July 10 new tall. Before this outside after intermediary reports the United States restores pair of Iran punish, exit of Iranian crude oil glides continuously, crude oil and condensate exit measured Iran to be 64 million pails about in August, average export volume is 2.06 million pails / day, reach 70 million pails to fall first since April 2017 the following; At the same time stock of American crude oil falls 2 weeks continuously, and consumption of oil of finished product of current United States also has to oil price strong prop up. Crude price approachs Bulunte once more early days is bit taller, the possibility of short-term nevertheless breakthrough is not tall, the reason depends on OPEC crude output will rise in August to inside year highest, the supply that Iran forms pounds strength finite; In addition American benzine inventory still taller, and enter peak period of consumption of oil of overhaul period, finished product as refinery be about to end, demand of later period crude oil will be restrained.

The export data of statistic of the intermediary outside the basis shows, iranian crude oil and condensate export volume fell August it is 400 thousand pails about / day comes 2.06 million pails / day, main source is Indian entrance drops, india decreases 8.2 million pails from 20 million pails from import volume of Iran; Europe decreases 12 million pails from 22.2 million pails; Korea imports crude oil from Iran no longer since July; Japan is successive two months reduce entrance amount, decrease 3.4 million pails. Will look at present, the pressure that limits Iranian oil export basically comes from the following respects:

It is, the concern that buy the home gets 2 punish of the United States, especially American allied country and there is the company that begins professional work in the United States, had fallen entrance of Iranian crude oil like France, Korea to 0, and the business of international Petroleum Company is global, and the partner of the company also comes from the United States partly, once will be thed loss outweights the gain by 2 punish of the United States, so similar like Daodaer company chose to exit Iran. Below the case that has economic punish formally the 2nd round to Iran in the United States, the tanker of the country such as Europe, Greek, Korea, Japan transports big probability Iranian crude oil no longer, exit of Iranian crude oil will continue to glide.

2 be, as a result of the reason of American punish, ship-owner and insurance company provide shipping and insurance service to exit of Iranian crude oil no longer, the influence that this exports to Iranian oil is most vital, to maintain export volume, iran begins to use oneself tanker entirely from July (the crude oil that NIOC and IRISL) ship pair of China and Indian outlet, adopt DES provision. 2018 1-8 month, exit of Iranian crude oil has 50% to be carried by the tanker of company of Iranian country tanker, at present company of Iranian country tanker has 39 VLCC tanker in all, 9 Suezmax tanker and 5 Aframax tanker, in August 2018, the crude oil that company of Iranian country tanker finishs is carried achieved 1.18 million pails / day, 1 million pails / the greatest carriage ability that day measures grade level to had approached company of Iranian country tanker. If future needs to enable oil of float storehouse store up, transport power is apparently insufficient.

3 be, the United States restricts Iran to use dollar and system of bank settle accounts, be in considering the dollar the position of money of global settle accounts, this makes Iranian oil buys the home to be opened in L/C, in waiting for link, Fu Hui settle accounts faces heavy difficulty, consider China and Iran can use a RMB to regard settle accounts as the money nevertheless, let the pressure of this respect be reduced greatly, also be the main base that Iran retains stable to Chinese exit, additional explicit 2012~2016 year during punish, iran and the way that change commodity through having oil with Russia covert punish of escape United States, but buy the home to other much for, the punish on finance makes the difficulty that Iranian oil imports leap.

Will look at present, europe, India, Japan still has 20-40 each 10 thousand pails / the Iranian crude oil that day differs imports an amount, main reason is each country still is striving for the exempt that American side files before punish of the 2nd phase will come on November 4, will see the United States send a manner to Iranian eagle at present still strengthening ceaselessly, beautiful Yi both sides negotiates to still be without a foundation but character. Accordingly, the possibility that at present each country strives for exempt appears not quite.

Accordingly, below the premise that does not undertake exempt to any countries considering the United States, before November, volume of export of Iranian crude oil still may have 1 million pails / the fall of day space (India 200 thousand pails of) of 400 thousand bucket, Japan, at the appointed time these countries need to search other replace oil to plant will satisfy requirement, and although American respect is capable also to export, but brunt exit oil is planted for crude oil of light qualitative low sulfur, although beautiful bay also has in waiting, Mars, SGC contains sulfur crude oil character, but crop finite and the requirement that still needs to satisfy local refine factory first, because this is planted in oil,do not do on character perfect replace.

The finance of Iranian home has shown crisis pattern, since the United States announced to implement sanction to Iran in May 2018, iranian money the exchange rate bold and flowing of dollar of Li Yaer add. The countryman of apparent Iran already from last among punish derive lesson, this punish have not comprehensive open, iranian finance already broke down nearly. The impact that Iranian economy gets from inside American punish is bigger, the probability that Iran adopts an extreme to make reprisals also is rising ceaselessly. In future inside a few months, iranian punish will still support oil price on can certain level.