Old ox is in on period the value that puts forward to show Jin Liu to analyse to everybody in financial analysis, today the commonly used method that everybody introduces analytic cash to flow mainly.
(One) commonly used Gou Ji concerns
Cash flow meter closes strung from the work out is by balance sheet, profit the watch is decided directly, because this also can be put in the relation that draw check, from what can we tick off check concern proceed with to seek an issue commonly?
1, " monetary fund " with " period end cash and cash equivalent remaining sum "
Generally speaking, both is equal, in both the circumstance of occurrence balance falls, put in monetary fund to get the case that be restricted, need union annual report is specific examine.
Commonner it is bill bail, if appear,a large number of guaranty, impawn and judicatory freeze the circumstance such as bank deposit, need to think whether is this company put in financial risk and the circumstance of management risk.
2, business income, receivable with the sale commodity, ready money that provides a service to receive
Main logic is to contain tax advocate = of business Wu income closes now + creditor's rights, if many reports period inside difference scale has very big wave motion, whether does need attention exist unusual.
3, deal with, imprest with buy the commodity, cash reserve in a bank that accepts a service to pay
Main logic is to contain duty to purchase frontal = encash + debt, if many reports period inside difference scale has very big wave motion, whether does need attention exist unusual.
Induce through old ox next and statistic, existence may be put the following kinds in the evidence of the problem, also need to notice highly:
(One) management sex cash flows to be continuously negative
Flow of management activity cash is continuously negative, be normal inside short time, from the point of a longer cycle, it is bad.
In IPO newest examine and verify is how-to in, did not undertake to running net specified number of sexual cash flow problem of main examine and verify is stated, and in before IPO is met too in case, also put in net specified number of flow of cash of a few management sexes to be continuously negative, still pass the case of the meeting:
In aluminous international, inside report period successive 6 years cash shedding is negative;
Exceed rich power, inside report period successive 3 years cash shedding is negative;
Zhen Jing share, inside report period successive 2 years cash shedding is negative;
Glad acute science and technology, inside report period successive 2 years cash shedding is negative;
Division blue software, inside report period successive 3 years cash shedding is negative;
Explain cash flows to be negative number continuously, be not the sufficient reason that overrule.
And need complementary develop speech of catenary of level, management characteristic, industry with the enterprise authority, asset is indebted concentration of ability of rate, outside financing, client is spent, money of inventory turnover, receivable Zhang returns a money short-term loan of circumstance, associated square financing and take up wait for an element to have integrated consideration.
We lift a few example to undertake demonstrative:
1, A enterprise is an IT executive company, basically give bank, safe, negotiable security kind the company provides executive service, this kind of client is compared commonly strong, cycle of capital close an account is longer, and the company basically is carry out main cost as the project with manpower output, pay salary on time, cannot undertake taking up to handling Zhang money, the company is in grow quickly period, early days needs many battalion to carry capital is thrown, its manage mobile cash to flow to be differred quite, recombine its are receivable number of day of Zhang money have enough to meet need and Zhang age in light of the structure, the money can be returned inside half an year, and with a person operating from within in coordination with outside forces one year money receiving Zhang is occupied than achieving 80% above, management sex cash flows in it is continuously in recent years negative, accord with its to manage a characteristic.
2, B company cash flows to be continuously negative, receivable Zhang money / capital total or receivable Zhang money / business income is occupied present ascendant trend than also be in, and asset is indebted rate is higher, existence just undertakes violating the condition of compasses bill financing through correlation, still need to pay close attention to this enterprise to whether be put in short-term loan of associated square financing at the same time, judging this enterprise is a thunder.
3, C company cash flows to lose, receivable Zhang money is occupied taller, and the client is spent centrally taller, existence big client is depended on, need the actual strength of concrete analysis big client, located prices, cash of future of judgement C company flows whether can improve somewhat.
(2) net specified number of flow of management activity cash and net profit deviate from badly
Generally speaking, net specified number of flow of management activity cash far under net profit, because battalion carries capital grows extent to be more than net profit to increase scope,be commonly, battalion carries receivable Zhang money increases in capital, it is right likely the client has sell on credit, also be the client appears likely the difficulty that return a money; Goods in stock increases, it is a product likely slow-moving, keep long in stock, possible also presence should carry forward and not the cost of carry forward creates void of goods in stock tall, appear this kind deviates from, need the reason of the business level that concrete analysis battalion carries financing raises and industry level.
(3) flow of management activity cash is inside report period fluctuate considerably
Generally speaking, the flow of management activity cash of the company is general relatively stable, if cash is poured out of,show apparent inflection point trait, be like by negative become a full member, or by turning negative, need to pay close attention to the reason of the management level of this change and industry level, judge its abiogenesis sex may durative, look to whether put in finance affairs to operate: For instance the end of the year defers pair of suppliers to pay, special arrangement client returns the end of the year paragraph, relax to adding a client newly credit period, need pays close attention to its rationality and authenticity.
We analyse cash to shed commonly used index is net specified number of flow of management activity cash, with its judgement company runs stand or fall, and the cash content that measures net benefit. But also meet below the case that these commonly used index make a holiday in existence finance affairs invalidation.
Finance affairs makes a holiday, no more than is through underestimating cost, empty increases income, and other sell asset, buy equity to realize the behavior such as yield to calculate profit management.
The defray of charge, need walks along management activity cash to shed defray, if underestimate cost, need to will answer originally plan enter management sex defray, adjust go in other item.
And empty increases income, need brings management sex cash to flow into, and the enterprise did not realize these income truly, future also won't bring corresponding cash to flow, general meeting sheds other item to undertake transferring into through cash v, assure a balance.
The proceed with of the relation that draw check that expresses from cash flow meter and balance sheet, profit with respect to need so, undertake test and verify.
Cite a few case that analyse invalidation next:
Dark spend Chen Cang
1, the route that world communication grants other telecommunication the company through will paying and network fare think truly capital sex defray (borrow: Fixed assets borrows: Circuit cost) , decrease in each quarterly empty continuously during charge, empty increases profit 3.825 billion, and this skill law also will manage mobile expenses move accordingly to arrive in outlay of investment activity cash, changed cash flow structure thereby, cash flow also is cooperating to lie.
2, Oriental electron covers the share show income to be packed advocate business Wu income, will cover show income to infiltrate company bank account, ask for blank contract to undertake the contract is forged selling to the client at the same time, illicit quarter client official seal, make money to the client, let a client cooperate to be hit again, implementation business circulates, empty adds sale outstanding achievement, implementation is current profit and share price are climbed at the same time litre, provided a basis for outstanding achievement growth again: Share price is climbed again litre, cover again again pack now, implementation makes a holiday " benign loop " .
This skill law also diverts flow of investment activity cash management activity cash to flow go in the project, bring about investor miscarriage of justice the hematopoiesis ability that its run sexual cash to flow.
Pass away the sham as the genuine
1, the capital come-and-go with blame finance orgnaization, include management activity to cash flows or invest, raise fund mobile cash flows;
2, get the governmental allowance related to asset, include management activity to cash flows or invest mobile cash to flow;
3, the cash reserve in a bank that receivable bill discount acquires, include management activity to cash flows or raise fund mobile cash flows;
4, of bill bail put piece stock, include management activity to cash flows or raise fund mobile cash flows;
The stock market superintends hasten to father now, orgnaization of media of numerous finance and economics, tripartite begins emerge in large numbers, exposure of land add add appears on the market company finance affairs makes false fraud instrument. But it is in the meantime, old Niu Ye discovers a lot of appearing on the market the finance affairs of the company makes fake art also more and more high degree of professional proficiency, the method emerges in endlessly, besides auditor team, also need those who raise oneself to identify ability as broad and average investor, the more job that after the market sees an end stage by stage, leaves is removal of mines. Happy on the weekend finally, arrive today here.
