In the past since half many century, be issued by infinite enlarge case in dollar dominant position, american economy is otherer economic system appears closer from prosperity one pace. Be in the beauty especially couplet store different level QE imprints below bank note act, american economy gets the corporeal money with precious whole world easily with the dollar, the couplet is the United States that we weigh our store " imprint come out " American economy, this is indirect also and abet the debt habit that American economy consumes ahead of schedule.
For example, the budget deficit of American federal almost year answer one year present increases position, in the meantime, pass issue beautiful debt transfer of assets of this one dollar deficit risk. For example, although American economy growth achieves nearly 4 years to come to optimal expression, beauty couplet store number spends litre of breath, but American federal still sends debt in raise the quota, the gap of budget of 1 trillion dollar that causes in order to answer to reducing tax raises fund.
Picture origin Youtube
This is meant, once the segment sending debt of American federal gave an issue, nobody buy beautiful debt sheet or experience are cast dish, american economy is annual the risk that big hill of -727379968 dollars deficit faces a collapse, the pain spot of the dollar also shows naked come out, produce economic depression then. Review the United States the every time on economic history is flat, or having close correlation with debt.
Data origin Reuter
"Inflationary risk and bonds are issued should meet push high yield, " certificate of path clear proof (senior analyst James Orlando weighs TD Securities) . "If these elements were not digested, beautiful couplet store rise breath pace currently to will bring about yield curve to be in hang one year next. " the another investigation that the road appears the near future shows, two years the possibility of American economic depression is future 35% , to the end of next year economy is added fast will put delay to 2% , relatively the United States this year increase rate of the 2nd season 4.2% drop even more half.
According to England " daily telecommunications signs up for " report, feierdesitan warned the · of man of horse of chairman of institute of economy of American whole nation that ever held the position of chairman of advisory committee of economy of the White House recently say, below one round of Xiong Fu is probable by 10 years period violent wind of national debt interest rate rises cause, will cause loss of American family capital 10 trillion dollar. Bring from this a series of " wealth effect " will make American retail economy annual loss 300 billion to 400 billion dollar.
Picture origin Agora
Feierdesitan cares about the Anbuluosaidi that Dalike holds by the side of Mo Hu forum field appearance, "Deficit of American confederative finance approachs 1 trillion dollar, debt ratio has been double 10 years ago, the space of finance dilate is very accordingly little. " " ebb next time when advent, will compare before more serious, duration is longer. We are at a loss what to do to this. " we notice likewise, inside a year of many recent time, total of American federal debt, from 19 trillion to 20 trillion realized hop easily to 21 trillion dollar again (following graphs) .
Another danger signal is, two years the makings after a year raises yield of period beauty debt to 3.14% , this Zhou Siyao newspaper 2.80% . 10 years yield makings is in period beauty debt 3.30% the left and right sides. This will drive two years / 10 years difference of interest of period beauty debt shrinks to about 17 base point, for since June 2007 head see. This is meant, current beautiful debt pattern already received the standard before be bordering on financial crisis.
Not come singly but in pairs, the international capital flow that announced on September 19 according to American Ministry of finance reports (the defer that reports data can have two months) TIC shows, at least 15 big loan are decreased in different in July level held beautiful debt, successive like India 4 months reduce the debt that hold the United States, decrease oppose scale nearly 10% , germany is successive 3 months reduce the debt that hold the United States, decrease opposing scale is to be as high as more it is about 17.4% . The analysis thinks, beautiful debt or lifting undersell tide. That is to say, below the circumstance that dollar credence drops ceaselessly and crisis index rises ceaselessly, a lot of creditor and investor or selection change beautiful debt work off ahead of schedule now, then, beautiful debt avoids as the whole world the function of the mark of risk capital also is in abate.
Not only such, beautiful couplet store exceed low interest rate and money for years to stimulate measure to push price of wall street stock to freeboard level, did not abide by the history basic principle. Dollar asset value will decline inevitably finally dust. That is to say, no matter beautiful debt still is US stock or the brim that already went to the risk. Doomsday doctor " Zhou Fawen weighs Lubiniben, greet American economic depression possibly 2020 " storm " . Not come singly but in pairs, we notice, 3 billionaire also issued similar warning to dollar assets and American economy.
Billionaire fertile when Ba Fei of human relations · accepted CNBC to interview recently especially, say, producing financial crisis again is inevitable. "A certain moment returns tomorrow for certain will recurrent (financial crisis) . " and Roger of · of billionaire investor Jim this long-term importunate a kind of viewpoint is, below giant debt problem weigh, the United States is faced with move comparing a crisis with financial even severe 2008 seismic sea wave, suffer the effect of American debt and value of US stock overmeasure, dollar assets or will become dye-in-the-wood menace. Lei Daliao also expressed billionaire of pair of author of water of strong fund bridge with the greatest whole world recently, current economic situation is developing according to the play of American great depression, new financial crisis will produce inside 2 years. (be over)
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