Dispatch of net of the house property that believe this world is in China, house price is unintelligible title, it is common people all the time people the topic core that zealous discussion, the change with little any can let people do it mad.
House price of China arrived already high nowadays unreasonable degree, do not say north to go up wide, see us only this just ascends personally the letter of 3 lines city is open, in the whole nation secondhand the room occupies the 129th in quote rank, average room price 6904 yuan / ㎡, in front of compare two years broke up one time almost.
And once fervent Chinese building city drops in temperature ceaselessly in a year in the past, land of room look forward to purchases area and area of commodity house sale to all be compared on year drop, land is to flow again and again more pat, the market is wait-and-see the mood is aggravating, die about estate market then dish opinion on public affairs begins to be mentioned ceaselessly.
The friend that has attention a bit to building city should be right that Japanese real estate 1991 dies dish somewhat hear of: Tokyo house price 3 months steep fall 65% , clinch a deal dispirited, bank borrows money to offer, the stock falls exceed 80% , yen devalues, divorce rate soares, commit suicide and go bankrupt to erupt centrally, full ave is homeless tramp, scan widely looks at tragic of a world.
Watch the China of nowadays instead: Housing market bubble is serious; Estate kidnapped bank, economy; Panic of the person that buy a house spreads; Population is aged; Housing market clinchs a deal the quantity produces now to fall, estate has valence not to have city. Wait a phenomenon a moment to appear to mix it seems that in those days some resemble the Japan before economy breaks down. So medium does congress weigh the track of an overturned cart of skip Japan?
Probability is not to do not have, but this probability is not big.
Why?
The first, Chinese national condition and foreign country are different. The drive that estate investment increases as economy is crucial, unless economic transition is successful, industrial structural adjustment is successful, new economy develops mode and growth momentum to replace, the place does not rely on estate to expand investment of the economy, finance that prop up, infrastructure, otherwise the government allows estate to die anything but dish.
The 2nd, Chinese town changes a course still continueing, japan and United States at the outset landed bubble all arises to be changed in town rate achieve 75% above, and economy increases rate slower circumstance falls, and China wants to achieve town to change booked target to still need 20 years to just can be finished 30 years even at present, and many housing demand can generate in this process, this provided vast space for estate development.
The 3rd, little person of Chinese city land is much, especially now of 2 child and registered permanent residence open, the country goes into town to buy room policy to go out ceaselessly with the undergraduate new, the housing demand of the housing demand of town dweller and new citizen is the tremendous latent capacity that prospective estate expands.
The 4th, the 30% above that estate occupies bank total bandwidth, the safety that regards finance, debt as the system period, have the effect that avoids hyper inflation.
The 5th, Chinese government still has larger policy space to be able to prevent economic be issued to lower levels.
As a whole, house price is need pilot, and governmental purpose is very clear also -- counter house property seize a chance to seek private gain, increase true just needed, below the case that manages adventurer not to run, use just needed to digest bubble. A few wave motion can appear necessarily during adjusting, but the rigid demand of Chinese estate market is long-standing, macroscopical economy still has very big development delayed effect, house property bubble is so undone premature to say still.
