These days, friend circle and small signal by " motor-car of report of expert talk nonsense " news bully screen.
It is on forum of 500 strong company height, include a country vice-chairman of party of 1000 people plan XX many expert that waits inside, snarl of mad gush of full-scale to electric car make war, firepower is fierce, assault force is powerful, instantaneous bully screen, be held in both hands to be by a lot of media said big true word, did not refute at all in the profession, accepted this practice silently.
The fury of experts
Motor-car of angry gush report basically has experts the following:
Business of 1. report motor-car is global lose money in business, the outlet is dim, "Tesla is in all the time hype, but every quarter is having a deficit money, biyadi a list of names posted up first quarter profit drops madly 83% " .
The energy density of batteries of 2. report motor-car is low, do not have method and benzine to compare. "Lead is acerbity now batteries density 90, lithium battery 240, biyadi is now 180, but benzine is 8600 " .
Mark of empty of boat of add of or of 3. report motor-car, or is cruise too short, "You buy an electric motor-car in Xi'an now, open treasure chicken to dare not go " .
4. because our country person " derv car does not work to cross Europe, benzine car works beautiful nevertheless day " , our country thinks " bending overtake through electric car is talk nonsense " .
These utterance without preamble, with the power of a thunderbolt and the speed of lightning, acuteness and fierce, cause opinion on public affairs orgiastic, and even be held in both hands to be by a lot of people " conscience expert said big true word " . But reality is not such, it is excusable to jeer as the clap one's hand of masses eating melon that does not understand ins and outs, if regard a profession as go-between,can be, return stir up trouble with respect to cannot be justified or explained away.
About the economics knowledge of tesla lose money in business
Principal about a list of names posted up first problem, the expert thinks tesla lose money in business and Biyadi profit drops madly, mean electric car outlet dim. Appearance looks such really, but appreciably is analysed,can discover absurd unsurpassed, this is the basic knowledge of not clear economics.
Because innovate so about tesla and Biyadi for pattern company, early days lose money in business is very normal, be over to cannot prevent completely, seem to feed the child is same, a child has to school work from quack dropping ground, to the trend working station invents value, the hour with central very long demand. One starts new-style business, pay in demand of poineering early days a lot of contributive, demand develops new mastery of a skill or technique, demand buys mechanical equipment, demand structure productivity, employ of demand whole world is advanced talent, these demand is huge contributive, and profit is long process of a continous, unavoidable of primary lose one's capital.
It is tesla not merely actually, although in A, Tecent, Baidu now the gigantic alligator of all-powerful people, each are the lose money in business that has experienced continous to grow, just achieved surplus after all next. Beijing east show up to now already lose money in business 10 years, still be in now lose money in business. Again example tesla, although lose money in business of family in successive years, can be market prise five U.S. dollors, surmount general, surmount Ford, head of a list of names posted up is ranked in American car profession! This truth experts may think broken head wants not to understand.
Batteries energy density is rising at full speed
The 2nd problem, about problem of density of electric car energy. If expert place says, density of dynamical cell energy is not high really, compare with benzine especially, be absent completely an administrative levels. But the expert preps according to when wait for windfalls, ignored a reality innocently of purpose however, although the energy density of dynamical cell is low, rising at full speed however in, even if lower than benzine much, do not affect electric vehicle completely also commercialize.
Principal, just be a few years ago, the energy density of dynamical cell is lower. We still remember Biyadi the dynamoelectric bus of equipment iron batteries, energy density and even under 100 Wh/kg, a few years short nevertheless always, the skill advance rapidly of dynamical cell, energy density rises quickly, the energy density of report of present 3 yuan of lithium can arrive at 200 Wh/kg generally already now. Basis " our country is made 2025 " assertive skill target, density of lithium battery energy arrived 2020 300Wh/kg, energy density arrived at 400Wh/kg 2025, energy density arrived at 500Wh/kg 2030.
Must not feel this skill looks elevation cannot be climbed, it is console oneself with false hopes and console oneself with false hopes, target of this skill on reality and even can finish ahead of schedule. Time of peaceful now heart measures the batteries energy density that produce to already arrived at 240 Wh/kg now, density of energy of more columnar than overcoming batteries batteries arrives at 250 Wh/kg, density of batteries of 3 yuan of mild packages arrives at cell of stroll actor power 260 Wh/kg, versatile year end tries yield batteries energy density to arrive at 300 Wh/kg, and measure density of yield energy of battery of lithium of whole solid state to be able to amount to 300-400Wh/kg soon, and still have very large latent capacity can dig, density of energy of theory of report of solid state lithium and even can arrive at 900Wh/kg. And batteries of more advanced black lead Xi, and even can solve completely charge problem, "Charge 5 minutes, run quickly 300 kilometers " will not be a problem.
Be necessary to admit of course, although density of dynamical cell energy surmounts 500 Wh/kg, the density that surmounts 8500 Wh/kg with benzine still is absent quite an administrative levels, electric nevertheless car has a very crackajack advantage, can dissolve this ahull completely, it is electric car not demand engine, not demand gear-box, this can be decreased substantially heavy. Because carry battery,can not become load.
Assume density of prospective batteries energy arrives at 500 Wh/kg, batteries capacity is 50kwh, so theoretic a demand 100 kilograms of batteries, can support the add ship of 500 kilometers already, of this batteries heft and fuel machine " engine + gear-box + 40 litres of benzine " heft is absent completely a grade, the expert's so anxious energy density, it is suffer from imaginary fears completely.
Add boat is advancing towards 1000 kilometers take big strides
Expert another deep-rooted worry is add boat is no good, still lifted include tesla and colourful to come the example with car poor endurance, and gnash points out " you buy an electric car in Xi'an now, open treasure chicken to dare not go " .
Apparent, the expert continues to make the mistake of wait for windfalls. A bit more principal, the problem of boat of add of mark of electric car empty is really, can bring about academic add boat and distance of practice cruise existence really, theoretic mark 500 kilometers, practice add boat may be less than 400 kilometers. But this is not electric car patent, mark of fuel car empty exists generally also, a lot of government oily cost 8 litres car, careless can open the person that drive give 12 oil.
Say problem of Cheng of add air route next. Boat of add of electric now car is inferior to benzine car really, be necessary nevertheless a bit more advertent, before if retreat,returning 5 years, the add boat ability of electric car is poorer. We still remember, the electric motor-car that the bazaar a few years ago sells best is the EC160 of boreal steam new energy resources, academic add boat is 160 kilometers; Become EC180 later, add boat increases 180 kilometers, become later again 260, become later again 360. This from 160 to the change of 360, happen in actually a few years short always.
Just be 5 years ago, the car that you look for an add boat to surmount 300 kilometers on bazaar is a very arduous thing, but after 5 years now, you look for a cruise on bazaar the new car under 300 kilometers, actually very difficult also
.
Namely a few years short always, cheng of air route of electric car add increased simply double, and still increasing quickly in, already got close to at all now now the level of fuel car. And the add boat that surmounts fuel car substantially, show now imperative already, did not come to those who follow energy density to rise to progress with skill, electric car arrives at 800 kilometers and even the add boat of 1000 kilometers to also won't await too long, the expert is so complete need not problem of boat of too anxious add.
Electric car does not have talk nonsense, the likelihood is an expert in talk nonsense
Final a problem, the expert thinks our country chooses electric car is journey of a fault, state one's view frankly " tortuous path overtake is in talk nonsense " , our country person " derv car does not work to cross Europe, benzine car works beautiful nevertheless day " . Can be very apparent, if we act on a scientific mood to analyse, you can discover this is an expert in talk nonsense.
The expert says car of our country fuel does not work to cross Europe and Japan, this is reality. It is truckload not merely actually do not work to cross Europe and Japan, our engine also has not worked, gear-box also has not worked, a few main center component also had not worked far.
Be in truckload in prepping according to, the auspicious with our the biggest program is auspicious the Great Wall is less than masses and Feng Tian an odd, in central component category, we and family space are larger. If say abundant cropland and masses,we still have the hope of angle, so ZF He Aixin is in the advantage of gear-box respect and even more crackajack. Include Qi of outfit of rich world, Maigena, Bogehuana, report, Getelake, arrow, country the advantage of the central component such as strange, Aotuolifu, and even can make us disappointed. Our country brand wants to be finished in fuel car category about Germany, United States and Japan overtake, it is the mission that fulfils hard simply, because the family appeared to already ran a few years, banner and too much, it is patent camp lets us only hard exceed.
But car category is changed in report, circumstance great difference, because serve as a newly emerging things, we are in at all same a scratch line, and be compared as a result of weight of car of fuel of our country brand small, we more can take part in a battle with light packs, can run more quickly, true overtake of path of the turn that finish, and tortuous path overtake already also was finished now on our reality.
For example 2018 first half of the year, in rank of sales volume of global report motor-car, our country brand is before the whole world 10 in took 4 position, biyadi still was obtained sell a hat, the rank surmounted Feng Tian and masses far these can hold his head high only before this admire those who inspect is gigantic child.
In respect of cell of central skill power, our country and even already finished tortuous path overtake now, 2017 dynamical cell sales volume is ranked in, our country gained absolutely advantage, not only those who carried off dynamical cell shipment is measured sell a hat, advanced still 10 in took 7 position. In fuel car category, we can follow in transnational corporation only behind follow established rules, time of peaceful now heart already was become now run quickly, the batteries supplier of BMW and masses, finished tortuous path overtake completely already now.
