Introduction: Everybody is undertaking inevitably investing behavior, so what is the essence of investment?
The world that everybody sees is different, everybody also divides different dimension to spend to the acknowledge of same investment opportunity, the acknowledge that different dimension spends means what differ completely severally to get the better of rate option, get different result finally. So, the essence of investment is cognitive actually change now, the article discusses what have explain the profound things in a simple way to this and reader.
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Investment namely decision-making
And of decision-making difference backside is cognitive level at all
Investment is the uncertainty chip in to future, the process of investment is in ceaselessly namely get the better of lead and the balance is made between compensate rate. Bound of one person generation, the world that everybody sees is different, everybody also divides different dimension to spend to the acknowledge of same investment opportunity, the acknowledge that different dimension spends means what differ completely severally to get the better of rate option.
It is the tall compensate rate of premise without tall determinism, it is gamble. But the tall determinism that general acknowledge reachs the market, connecting general reason condition to fall to give you impossibly tall compensate rate again. So the essence of the problem is whether you have actually surmount market great majority the person's acknowledge, timely judgement gives the wrong price of the market, what go doing tall compensate to lead with Gao Sheng rate is decision-making. What Ma Yun says, the arrival of any opportunities, be sure to experience 4 level: "Invisible " , " look down on " , " look not to understand " , " have not enough time " , also be same logic.
Invest that money that you do not believe very difficult gain
Know and believe between have very large space, and true acknowledge is to believe, devotional even, we see a few numbers first:
A, Wang Zherong boast brushs a friend to encircle, I believe major person knows, and great majority person just also sighs with emotion issue big Tecent good ox to force ah just. B, believe most person learned a lot of core that wait for these star companies about Google, Yamaxun, Facebook, apple, Tecent, Alibaba through all sorts of channel pattern of competition ability, company culture, trade, know they are very arrogant, but if make 6 shares,a combination goes answer dish, year of turn average get one's own back that goes 3 years also be as high as hundred several 10.
The profundity to pattern of people lifestyle, trade changes Internet of these phenomenal backside shift, the consumption of new student generation is used to upgrade wait for a reason, the person knows our great majority, but whether true from know to believe, what farther translate into can invest is cognitive, little little.
Invest that money that you do not believe very difficult gain.
Toward small say, do not have sufficient confidence to a company, most can that money with direct and relevant data of gain finance affairs, the money with again far bit longer feature is impossible gain. Toward big say, did not come to the country from inmost pessimism, so most gain the money of the petty trick of a few wave band, it is very difficult also to should profiteer. Pattern, history feels these things are in 99% when very empty, but in the important and decision-making hour of 1% the real strong point that often is powerful belief.
How to rise to arrive from acknowledge of investment change rate
To us great majority is not professional investor to tell, old to oneself are engaged in industry acknowledge standard is the person that surmounts the great majority on the market for certain, because this pair is in for years,some kind of specific industry is accumulated mediumly, the perspective that distinctive acknowledge and trend judgement put in investment thinks, can plant this completely deepness acknowledge is out of shape easily.
For instance, "Google exited China 2010, the profit with very easy the biggest judgement just is Baidu, one year then about a hundred degrees share price turns over the fact really times. The person that loves to play game for instance can pay close attention to blizzard, the person of machine industry can pay close attention to understanding hand to be connected high, be engaged in the person of K12 attention learns and can be being thought of, new east. Be engaged in the person of K12 attention learns and can be being thought of, new east..
I say all the time, the 6-7 in the past year inside time, the house price besides city of a gleam of (the also is acknowledge rear difference that whether participates in) , we still missed two batches of investment opportunities of more than 10 times.
It is the smartphone raises the tide of 65% from the 10% permeability that be less than (2010-2013 in year) , the company of relevant industry catenary is go up severalfold at every turn, the Oufeiguang that produces feeling screen among them is a year short rise nearly 10 times. Additionally one is the mobile Internet wave that after smartphone permeability exceeds 65% , brings, in market of class of just a little like the bamboo shoots in spring after Dou Yu appeared to invest an opportunity efficiently in great quantities, change among them show the hand with the fastest, close together and relevant life that also follows most person at the same time dimensions of processional course of study is 4 years short time grew 10 times (2012 - arrived from 6 billion or so growth 2016 600 much) , the ox that is born among them self-evident, the one king till today person honorable.
Believe, of these two batches of big wave and opportunity great majority 80 hind, 90 hind it is personal experience, feeling with experience, so if you plant this the hep phenomenon beside, be opposite in the job of the industry accumulate think through deepness turn for true acknowledge, implementation of repass investment tool changes now, that belongs to your investment opportunity namely.
Of course, do poineering work to also belong to acknowledge to change showing category (Li Shanyou ever said, the cognitive border of father is the border with real company) , it is its only the demand is higher, besides needing to have the acknowledge that transcends the market, still need a series of integrated capability such as the strategy, organization. And investment, especially the investment of 2 class market, its trade cost is basic negligible not plan, it is most person acknowledge changes show first-rate way (threshold of investment of one class market is higher, trade cost is more complex also) .
The core that the company studies is space, structure, deepness, angle; Trade politic core is probability, compensate lead and anticipate difference; The core that invests a system is an object, opportunity, strength; And the core with the most substaintial investment is value, safe limit and compound interest. These a few link are homocentric circle, more from the back rely on core more.
Core decides the strategy and principle, outer shroud defines strategy and technique; Core is to, outer shroud is art; Core solved What and Why, outer shroud realized the How of be born; Core not firm is bump in disorder quietly, outer shroud is not solid it is bombastic.
The tall wave motion of the market does not represent high risk, conversely the calm of the market also is equal to balanced. Calm and intense put in different measure to look completely different, a situation full of danger of day wire may be in light of lunar string is a wavelet flower only. Balanced the key with unbalance is not short-term amplitude, be apart from value line to have much further problem after all however. Perhaps say, fluctuant degree reflects the intensity of the mood merely, but the irrelevance that of long-term direction is the price and value in the decision.
Run rampant when fluidity far after going, can you still invest? Is your capital structure healthy still? This is the problem of the strategic level that at present we should ask ourselves. Be in " money is great " the yield that raises is being pushed below the trend is to have sex of very tall deceit, be good at those who show changing with the trend is ace, be puzzled by the trend and in trend end paragraph into what cover a little passive. Read so much book, actually abstraction comes out with respect to two words: With trend oppose, you get rich very hard; And all be worth recursive oppose, you go bankrupt very easily.
All it is fortunately greatly have an insatiable desire for and be afraid of bring about, and quick to earning buck and overnight upstart expectation is the essential cause that have an insatiable desire for and is afraid of. Dovish it is easy to say, but when that means you to want to make money quickly in others not jealous, guard in yours time and again by mad market cruel when attacking changeless divinatory symbols. Going up at all is the absolutely confidence that needs pair of him concepts and method. And this kind of confidence cannot be blind. Confidence can come from finally only at knowledge, history and experience.
No matter which kinds invest style and alleged school, you can have different market hypothesis, different academic connotation, different value advocates, different operation system, different even world outlook. But all these differring is presentative, they want to gain a success must inevitable and sure accord with compound interest law. A methodology that cannot justify oneself on compound interest law, no matter you drag much more advanced word, take out much more abstruse theory, will endorse with much more arrogant person, be of no help.
Investment wants to need successfully to admit two premise:
The first, we are laic, we are sure to err ceaselessly; The 2nd, the core principle of investment is already stable, what we should do is not innovation, understand however and carry out.
Investment wants disastrous defeat can build go up in additionally two premise:
The first, report of my endowment different, I can accomplish others impracticable; The 2nd, I am had or discovered fry newly abstruse justice, I am investing theoretic had helped the mankind cross gave new one step.
No matter be the management change of the company, still be the change of capital and mood, actually final and regular meeting is mirrorred on appraise value come out. But appraise is worth report not to come out, it is this kind of change it is right after all wrong still. And to investor, the meaning that appraise is worth besides " right " and " wrong " besides, more important is the truth distributings with the result after its anticipate test and verify. So appraise value is to look suddenly very intuitionistic, look again value picture very complex, what when looking finally, did not imagine again is so complex.
Lead the tall determinism that accompanies without tall compensate, it is to chicken ribs. It is the tall compensate rate of premise without tall determinism, it is gamble. But the tall determinism that general acknowledge reachs the market, connecting general reason condition to fall to give you impossibly tall compensate rate again. So the essence of the problem is the effectiveness that understands the market and limitation actually, understand wrong price to appear below what circumstance the most easily.
Where does the uncertainty of the company come from after all? I think basically is:
1, prospective market demand and anticipate the difference between currently; 2, company strategy makes the issue that in reaching executive process, appears; 3, of main to managing generation effect all sorts of cannot control an element (if raw material is fluctuant, exchange rate is fluctuant, policy is major change, overturn sexual technology innovation) ; 4, of competitive intensity promote considerably; 5, as time spin make all things cannot accuse to cannot be measured then.
Does the importance that asset configures have how old?
I feel the first it is important, but it is on a long-term scale ability shows this kind of advantage certainly; The 2nd, so called configuration must have enough strength to just have the effect, excellent configuration opportunity but you distributed very small capital fund only, also meaning of it doesn't matter; The 3rd, asset configures itself and do not bring about like that surely appreciate, it is cent takes risk, this is both distinction is very big. Finally, the dimensions of the importance of configuration and single asset becomes direct ratio, major person problem is not configuration however dimensions.
If use the simplest individual to invest experience to look, if one year not very makes money,myself is, lead the 2nd year probably can harvest somewhat, if still be not very the 2nd year,make money, that is meant is super big bumper harvest the 3rd year certainly. Of course this rule also has contrasting other one side, if earn one year more than 2 years greatly,be insipid for instance, if earn that two years greatly continuously,basically want to comparatived to anticipate conservatively to did not have. Below that report, returned two years in the past pretty good. . .
Netizen and I say: 10 years the stock earned 10 times in the past it doesn't matter is actually marvelous, house property of a gleam of 10 years also 10 times. This word is OK so say, but this Zhang so calculate muddleheaded.
Why? What 10 this years because of house property you earn is not the money of ability, it is the money of luck, it is the money of super boom. Do 10 years you return tomorrow does the plan rely on a house to turn over 10 times again? But investment is strong obtain can be money not just, costlier is experience and ability. Look 10 years frequently too again?
Actually, asset rise in value how be meddlesome, but ability or lot must come the money that the person should be good at analysing his. And, must not regard as with the number of area of capital boom perch oneself body home, the truest body home must be in ursine city winter to calculate in your main asset. Of course, in eye of a lot of people, oneself asset is forever only flood is done not have refluent. Tell truth, time is put grew to look, heart do not deserve bigger to the power of fortune appreciation than periodic spell.
I often say with the friend: Know lower oneself a bit, net value is easy taller a bit. Alleged the diversity that lowers a complexity that accepts the world to move namely and market modes of life and relation to their environment, the thing that accepts oneself to a lot of do not understand this fact. Lower bit hind, into, can withhold outspread capacity limits to promote oneself the leeway of actual strength; Retreat, but more of the calm dedicated the domain that be familiar with at oneself and can understand. Investing this everybody in self-glorifying world, old day actually a lot of moment more stupid child of keep an eye on.
The doohickey of investment is artful method + stupid kongfu
Artful method is to point to methodology system, allow your get twice the result with half the effort, accomplish efficient and clever integrated information fragment to form complete understanding; Stupid kongfu, it is flower of dependable beautiful time energy little goes reading, collect and accumulate. The of 80% person in the market was washed out this layer by stupid kongfu, lose basically above quota of accrual be seleted a qualification. Remain have an in part again was held off by artful method, place revolve accrual and pay cannot match. Comparative so win the home, want ready already " stupid " should be good at again " artful " .
For a lot of things that go up than the world, human nature is quite reliable. Regretful is, that part with evil human nature, always be a few more reliable.
Buffett uses exponential fund and 10 years of PK to pouring fund, proving best to Everyman long-term investment approach is exponential fund. But like that and egg, this result has a very tall camp is you must admit you are " Everyman " , this is the premise that accepts very hard to each player that comes to the stock market (include myself) . This game is the acidest depended on, the money that earns those the most self-glorifying Everyman is to let ourselves take off the best way that bring and gives from Everyman.
Buffett is the most terrible learning evolution forever namely, of China " cling to type invests summary (do not touch science and technology to buy consumption only) " be acted according to to be Bible by certain person, but the family weighs a storehouse in an instant apple and airline. See Buffett the investment of this lifetime is developmental, from the graph looks to employ a technique between one's early years, collect butt to the most sterling Geleiemu, arrive again found new commercial pattern is shirt-sleeve the great company of awn case is talked, arrive fast 90 the capacity that still has him change, with respect to this bit enough apotheosis weighs emperor.
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