International liquidates a bank (BIS) element has " the Central Bank of the Central Bank " say, the BIS that headquarters is located in Basel is newest quarterly report thinks, near future market " disturbance " it is the whole world exceeds the consequence with loose inevitable monetary policy for years, most Central Bank does not have fatigued and weak to economy ready-made.
The report thinks, interest rate of the whole world after financial crisis touchs the history is new low, exceeded low interest rate nearly 10 years to bring about the whole world, develop especially the corpse business in economic system is much increase sharply, the amount is achieved since taking the place of 1980 highest.
The report says, main Central Bank is facing the whole world the hard choice on policy, lower interest rate can be carried brace up integral demand, be in short-term inside promotion obtain employment and investment, but send spreading corpse company more fault of meeting aggravate resource matchs, press the investment that takes healthy company and employ action. If the effect is enough powerful, will restrain economy of productivity growth, rein in to add fast, may farther depress interest rate.
Introduce according to Zerohedge of financial rich guest, corpse enterprise is enclothed on behalf of accrual rate (ICR) at least successive 3 quarters are little at 1 times, the profit before the tax that produces during the company namely cannot pay current accrual. In the meantime, the prospective growth potential of corpse enterprise anticipates relatively inferior, hold guest Q in the palm to be worth especially (namely enterprise vendibility is right the rate of cost of its asset replacement) in a year of any median levels under this domain.
The report of BIS thinks, the corpse enterprise below two kinds of afore-mentioned definitions has gain capacity special likeness, foreground of gain of the biggest different consist in (Prospect) quality respect, namely the market anticipates to the future of enterprise of two kinds of corpse gain exists clear dividing line.
Specific for, in the first kind the definition falls, major corpse enterprise is in deficit condition, median ICR is - 7 to - 5 between, the median ICR of enterprise of corpse of and rather than is 4 times at least. If be defined according to the 2nd kind, the Q asking guest of corpse enterprise is worth general prep above to be not corpse enterprise, be opposite on behalf of investor the prospective gain ability of enterprise of a lot of corpse is more hopeful, the future that exceeded pair of healthy businesses even grows anticipate.
(check scheme comes from Zerohedge of financial rich guest)
The report thinks, the price action of abnormality of this kind of market, the likelihood goes 10 years to main Central Bank exceeds a quantity to turn on the water and be caused naturally namely. The apt after a company becomes corpse company holds this one position longer, is not anabiosis or liquidate through going bankrupt exit the market, consider to discover, acting 1980 later period, corpse enterprise has the odds of 60% to be able to hold become rigid position one year in future, promoted 2016 to 85% .
Main culprit may exceed low interest rate namely, the financial stimulation that corpse enterprise gets is insufficient, harder motivation reduces debt. Creditor's rights still can form symbiotic relationship between person and debtor, namely creditor apt borrows money with very small interest rate duration of a exhibition for corpse enterprise, debtor of help of and rather than clears balance sheet. This increased the risk of debt break a contact, more wish the be the first to be affected of small-sized finance orgnaization of stick one's chin out.
Long-term criticism of Claudio Borio of BIS chief economist exceeds an amount loose monetary policy, he thinks the rising market of a few months is turbulent recently is one of side effect with this one inevitable policy, be opposite namely beautiful couplet store the inevitable response that increases breath and dollar to appreciate. He thinks, at present the market suffers from it is cheap to went up to be opposite of money " Buddhist monastic discipline breaks a symptom " (Withdrawal Symptoms) , this road is destined rugged won't smooth-going.
Borio still compares current market and Central Bank with the relation of patient and doctor, think to be in as interest rate or different common ground low, and Central Bank balance sheet should expand than allowing when to be awaited before, in the medicine chest of the Central Bank had helped a patient restore health basically without medicines and chemical reagents, perhaps give when its break down attend:
"Global economy is experiencing a cold to have a fever, and mainstream politics and society are right of globalization and multilateral creed kickback further, increased to have a fever degree. In view of the Central Bank gradually dried up ammunition depot, this did not get ready on behalf of policy constitutor the next time be issued to lower levels is periodic. This did not get ready on behalf of policy constitutor the next time be issued to lower levels is periodic..
He thinks, develop economic system also does not take pleasure in other's misfortune rising market, because develop the market environment of economic system and financial state are too comfortable, more worth while and anxious is, the developed country accumulated overmuch debt likewise in economic system. Accordingly, policy constitutor and market participator should prepare long-term and the region that troubled restores.
Occupy reference news additionally, organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) last week 4 (on September 20) say, global economy will continue in the near future driving dilate, but trade tension concerns to block up invests and bring about economic dilate speed possibly to put delay. OECD reduced global economy growth to anticipate not only, still think to economy of queasy delegate whole world grows trade tension and rising market or already hit a top.
When reviewing Lei Man's brother to go bankrupt 10 years, gaocheng and Magenshidanli the near future grinds the newspaper predicts, an economy crisis appears the most possibly activator is company debt, bond and foundation of provide for the aged get an effect before large investment bank. Gao Cheng predicts, 5 annual meeting have future the company debt of 1.3 trillion dollar expires, may spark at the appointed time beak a contract is current, perhaps be below one field whole world " explode thunder " begin.
