Chinese estate won't be undone like bubble, because, it is bubble far from.
About 10 years ago, estate bubble argument of China blots out the sky and cover up the earth, each expert, scholar is the numerous case that Japan of quote copiously from many sources, United States waits a moment more, speak with fervor and assurance, wish to prick broken China estate with one's own hands this big bubble after that fast.
The author wants to say, fast development analogy is this kind of freeboard Chinese estate big bubble, not proper is become.
Great truth is not much Suo, talk about oneself my opinion a bit.
The conte that tells a red army commander to had asked for a meadow first (cento at " this is current see about long march most the article of deepness " ) :
The town that I spread to hada child go up, the special local product of their place is boiler armet, so thick so round big sesame seed cake, a jin. In those days young soldier is bought everywhere eat. A young soldier ate 3 boiler armet, ate 3 boiler armet to cannot be moved later, how do this do? Ask company commander.
Company commander says, your water also must not be drunk, must not sleep tonight, go to me in the courtyard, go when to be digested went down to say again. This young soldier heard a word, the most important is to did not drink water, did not bilge dead. Lin Baiqu of minister of total supply ministry, can buy grain eventually, that steed followed him to take more than 20000 lis of land, cross meadow hunger to get skinny, forest often say, I am gotten well reward with food and drink of reward with food and drink my horse. Bought one pocket wheat, many jins 20. This horse is hungry, eat wheat completely, result, was maintained dead in the evening that day. (cento ends)
Where is Red Army young soldier? Through this one in the evening, delay came over, got rescued.
In last few years, everybody has a consensus, namely Chinese estate overdrew henceforth development of a few years.
Do not pass, the author feels to not was necessary to make a fuss of, this is the problem that evolution of economic high speed appears necessarily, the west is such, the United States, Japan is same also. Young soldier ate 2 big sesame seed cake more, namely henceforth meal of a few days had, can you let him how eat are 2 when go in big sesame seed cake spat come? Or, does make sb the first aim of attack take those 2 big sesame seed cake?
China's current estate was just like Red Army young soldier to eat 2 big sesame seed cake more when hunger is intolerable, maintain some are afflictively. Much smoother smooth leg, digest digest feed, change a space with time, get over goes tonight, do not have what marvelous.
So, does Chinese estate have so called bubble after all? Have of course, the E Er of Inner Mongolia is much this, the Beijing ferry new city of Tianjin treasure Chi, and city of a few 34 lines.
But, it is in order to slant improper completely without exception.
The author thinks, chinese estate, be just like that flat bread to have too much young soldier, need to be digested slowly, cannot squeeze bubble in that way like Japanese estate absolutely. Because, crowded bubble is met only undone, as good as at abandoning military accomplishment oneself, and oneself problem, oneself are clear, also need oneself to solve.
In fact, the estate that all sorts of currently bounds that buy measure to make brains calorific namely comes down calmly as soon as possible, avoid flat bread to eat much be maintained dead.
So, china and Japan, whether is real estate had can you compare a gender?
In a lot of element, the author thinks the system of ownership of land is most prime cause:
Japan is land individual private ownership, how much does land supply to the market, when to supply, supply where, depend on completely individual (of course, the government can have adjusting control through taxation) .
In those days, before Japanese estate bubble is undone, japanese individual is many land of hype, corner, cause land to supply shortage, house price rises considerably. When estate when bubble is undone, the person that the individual fries a room is disastrous. The day with undone bubble, night is a part when big financial group copies a bottom to buy land.
And China, land is a country. How much does land supply, when to supply, supply where depend on completely government, those who prevented land price is big fall greatly the concussion to the market.
The most important is, japanese land whether appreciation, do not depend on completely individual. And China, land nationalization, this land whether appreciation depends on completely the government plans to be thrown with capital to the development here, be like Beijing deputy center, go in for sth in a large scale like Beijing International Airport, such example cans be found everywhere.
Chinese government is completely OK the adjusting control that the demand according to the market has have a definite object in view in macroscopical level to the supply of land, ensure land maintains value, rise in value. And these, is Japanese government done get? Is American government become again how?
This, it is the advantage of Chinese existing system; This, it is the mainest source that China rises abruptly quickly from semi-feudal semi-colony!
Retell places in the conte on the desktop:
2 years ago, the government begins to encourage control oneself of state-owned estate company to have partial property, it is even when sale of a few land, proclaimed in writing stipulated control oneself has the scale of property and fixed number of year. On November 26, beijing earth takes fierce forest plenary session, 12 land are released centrally, state-owned room look forward to flocks and go up. Most of what is, "Card of head of class of take lessons after school " good future (learn and think of) a when pick so that Sha He presses down Chang Ping area with 1.3 billion base price business the ground. More of what is, condition of this plot sell one's own things is 100% control oneself and hold fixed number of year not under 20 years!
Again, tell a conte a few years ago:
A few years ago, some appears on the market company by ST. In face the critical hour that returns city, should appear on the market the company sells gave 2 some earlier year of house that buys in Beijing. For this, not only pick off ST, return make up the deficits and get surpluses.
This conte, in those days, pass for a story pasted on with approval.
Now, everybody should understand, the advantage of control oneself property? Actually, a lot of eyes are good go up celestial being, early saw among them way to do sth.
From today in the future, be in China, saying land is affirmative on the whole is more and more appreciation (the sort of place of door of jade of Gansu Province of if it were not for) , especially the area of a few heat of city of a gleam of, if Beijing goes in for sth in a large scale the International Airport is circumjacent, near the solid Anton station that is like border of capital male city. The development program henceforth will be more and more massive, more and more reasonable, the devoted meeting of follow-up capital is increasing, the property of control oneself will be met as the elapse of time ceaseless appreciation, of state-owned asset protect value and appreciation to will have more and more assure.
As to say, japan in those days town is changed rate, and Sino-Japanese the substaintial distinction on bank system, as current as China, have can you compare a gender? Interested friend can consult.
From this, land private ownership of Japan, the add fuel to the fire plus Japanese banking (the disorder that still policy goes up, cause from random condition, abandon military accomplishment finally oneself) , make estate bubble is blown bigger more, decided the final trend of Japanese estate thereby, can be bubble only undone.
And China, some closer year of freeboard of estate fast development, it is Red Army young soldier ate 2 big sesame seed cake more, perhaps say more the balloon that resembling is a ceaseless distend, should continue no longer only distend, get over tonight, will narrow slowly tomorrow, it is completely OK what accuse. How what accuse? These 2 years of everybody already experience arrived, right? Hahahaha.
So, individual my opinion: Chinese estate is not bubble. Change a space with time, completely OK accuse.
2018, building city lacks cash. Nevertheless, still a month went with respect to get over. So, 2019? I think, building city still lacks cash. How be boiled?
2019, the situation of real-estate industry total bodily form of predicting China still very not hopeful: The talent of each district introduces heat this year already subsidise, money of 34 lines city is changed find a place for had decreased, canopy changes will turn to find a place for for objective. Countrywide each district dare not say is to be on one's last legs, be afraid also is to be without opportunity of survival. Only the heat area of a few city just is had rise motivation, be like Beijing deputy center, go in for sth in a large scale like Beijing International Airport, and the southern area of periphery of Beijing of Heibei province annulus.
2019 first half of the year should be to have policy continuity to fulfil, continue so called crowded bubble. Perhaps say, continue to sneak away the big sesame seed cake in leg digestive abdomen. Say continuously a few whiter, it is be expert at course of study shuffles, in superior bad discard, in divide up the world afresh. The second half of the year of predicting next year, the major key of this round of real estate is whole, big shuffle will come to an end.
Get over of Red Army young soldier tonight, came over with respect to delay. So, a this of Chinese estate night, how long can you last after all? A year, 2 years?
Although after many twist, although have difficulty walking. But final, I believe, all of us believes, chinese real estate can go from the meadow certainly, also must, go from the meadow.
Last word: A large number of vermicelli made from bean starch still do not have the habit that assist nods after nurturance is read, hope everybody nods assist incidentally after read, if like, also share the friend beside please!
