Arrive from 2013 2016, sydney estate experienced 3 years of high-speed to send exhibition period. Especially abroad buy the home, particularly active in these 3 years. According to FIRB (juror of Australia foreign capital is met) annals, 2013-2016, of estate buy application amount year after year to increase by degrees, gross is as high as 100036, investment amount is as high as 168 billion bay yuan. China buys the home to become one of dominant, held close to the investment market of 25% .
Just, although the amount is much, direction however sideslip, many building spends investment, the problem begins to erupt eventually.
3 years ago, the Chinese Sarah of resident Sydney also follows suit bought a house, she and husband can be in Sydney on the west one of the area learned an area to purchase the high-level apartment block that handles 2 rooms to spend, price of the house when clinching a deal 990 thousand bay yuan.
However, as bubble of Sydney building city gradually retire, their house value also shrink. Current, this building value only 900 thousand bay yuan, dropped nearly 10% . Building flower is bought in Australia, if encounter building city drops in temperature, can not be " buy expensive " so simple. It is with the house of Sarah exemple, market price case dropped now 10% , mean market depression, arrived when building complete a business transaction needs to handle loan, appraisal may lower, if appraisal is only,trade 80% of the price, that means them to be in complete a business transaction is need 20% what pay loan to cannot be enclothed now.
Sarah couple considers to abandon this building flower for a time, but if abandon now, pay besides 100 thousand take do not come back, the stamp duty of 50 thousand also can hit water to float. Below the circumstance of be in a dilemma, they can preserve this building temporarily only, expect market get warm again after a cold spell on one hand, on the other hand live frugally raises money cash, once be faced with complete a business transaction, must want to plan the house fund of 20% .
Not come singly but in pairs, in the buy course of study that spends in Sydney block of flats, similar problem is not a case. The building that Chinese owner brings a gentleman to buy is spent inside east area, it is the apartment that manages 2 rooms, at present this area value has begun to become loose. Place favour installs a gentleman is to live oneself merely, he thinks, undersell loss stamp duty, living oneself should be to buy expensive, can use only " house price always can rise rise " will comfort oneself.
About investing the risk of Australia apartment, also not was to say one day two days. Be in early 2014, the author is in him compose " decide the issue of the battle is abroad estate " in, make early-warning in the light of Australia estate market: As a result of the enlarge of CBD of Sydney, Melbourne the look plans (before comparing, the area grows 4 times) too go up in high-level residence centrally, and the commercial program that offers obtain employment is not much, because this is sure to cause in all too beg, the empty buy rate of CBD core area will rise, hire return rate will drop. Then causes a certain number of risks, among them one of it is credit problem:
The bank is right apartment period room becomes after showing a house, not be to press a contract to buy the price to approve put loan, evaluate a value in order to become the market after the room to have loan however. If the anticipation of the room city after a few years is down, the price when the bank is worth a likelihood to be bought than investor to the assessment of this house property is even low, the cash of investor flows to be weakened further, raise money because of capital even difficult break a contact and loss deposit and stamp duty.
In fact, department analyst also thinks inside the bank, do not have foreground more and more as apartment, the bank also is calculating, your house still is worth how many money, compare the contract price at that time, the bank reduces 10%-20% generally to the appraise value of apartment now, to the area with serious and superfluous part, reduce more even.
Report of Australia news group says, the apartment of close half of Sydney, Melbourne, current value already under the contract buys price. From Feburary data looks, sydney the apartment of 45% drops the flower that destroy a building buys the price, this data is in Melbourne is 46% . House price drops the issue that brings a building the flower, it is development business further financing is difficult, building construction may be laid aside. Current, new administrative division has 60 thousand apartment to be in construction about, and in dimension city, this one word is adjacent 50 thousand. Formed the odd group of a vicious circle now, if these apartment build, the situation that can farther aggravate begs for be more than, house price can fall detective further; If rot end, not only investor is disastrous, also can contuse badly market confidence.
Shortly of Australia general election, any one party are not willing to see building city out of control, not only it is the popular topic before general election, also will become the Chongzhongzhi that issues a government to enter into an election contest to weigh.
To this, australia ANZ bank begins to put pardon fund condition, restart " still cease only not business of repayment of capital " ; Xi Taiyin goes to also announce, the loan application of the income outside receiving partial China sea of faces formally.
On put together, what investor should look clear is, no matter how policy and finance give aid to, block of flats spends the first selection that is not Australia buy course of study, measure insufficient average investor to capital put oneself in another's position especially. Loosen in market put under surveillance especially, when beginning to attract investor to enter the market, that should think of more, the asset that this locality investor and financial group are not touched, why should oneself bleach ocean to cross the sea to become is that loss big?
On the other hand we also want to see, apartment regards the one category of Australia estate market as eye, can not represent whole market go situation, the of a lot of house markets that analyse an one-sided supply exceeds demand drops in saying of market of valence house property steep fall. Occupy Sydney and Melbourne than of 60% drop regard as so of the market drop, and actual condition is the market that still has 40% is mixed trading rise. Real investor, not only should know avoid danger, should seeing clear where more is good luck, if pour bathing water and child together, not be off base!
The article is achieved formerly, author Liu Lei, division of conduct financial transactions of be in harmony evaluates Fubusijin committee member, " decide the issue of the battle is abroad estate " " Australia estate invests whole strategy " author, author of column of estate of much home media, writer.
