Introduction: The US stock is in after all what position, how to see the integral sex opportunity of the US stock at present. How view the whole world even the condition with kinds of big each current assets? These are recently we are asked about most problem. It is JP Morgan US stock below 2019 of 2 quarters newest look into, to the US stock, american economy, kinds of big asset expresses the data chart of existing special full and accurate to unscramble. I did section choosing and deepness interpreter. The PPT that we offer to each does understanding to read, be content not just show, it is better to help everybody go understanding is current American stock, economy is located environment!
End March 2019, the dynamic city of 500 is filled with mark general lead 16.4 times, had exceeded bovine city top on 2007 one round 15.7 times city is filled with rate, but still compare 2000 27.2 times want petty gain. The key is, calm danger yield is very low, at present 10 years period national debt yield just 2.4% , lower than wanting before a few times.
Below this piece of picture is more whole showed the past 25 years the appraise of 500 is worth mark general fluctuant interval. At present the dynamic city of 16.4 times is filled with rate, be in actually the history is average near the level. The PB of 3.1 times also is in the history is average near the level. From all sorts of appraise value dimension is spent look, the United States is compared with past photograph now, do not calculate expensive.
At present appraise is worth a level, corresponding still pretty good implicit return rate. What did not come one year is implicit return rate is in 11% the left and right sides. This implicit return rate, from kinds of the United States is big asset comparative angle looks, still have certain appeal actually.
Look from the angle of gain, four quarters appeared 2018 a low of every accrual. Or on the contrary, reduced tax because of Telangpu first half of the year 2018, brought counter-purchase in great quantities, appeared a profit is bit higher. At present the profit margin of mark general enterprise has gliding appearance.
Below the every earnings growth of 500 enters general of mark of this piece of graph general to be decomposed all right. The four seasons spent every accrual to grow 3.5% 2018, among them profit margin dilate loses contribution 1.7% , income growth was contributed 3.4% , the stock is counter-purchased offerred 1.8% . Four quarters were 2018 the low that outstanding achievement grows, but before a few quarters are the growth that exceeds average.
The stock that the US stock appeared to achieve a record 2018 is counter-purchased, next we look right next horn pursue this piece, the capital spending that discovers an enterprise is in instead glide. Show the growth of profit of these a few years of American companies, come from the mode of small capital fund of high quality, do not need overmuch capital spending. The cash of major company flows a state to reach its outstanding.
We look the yield of all sorts of styles was behaved first quarter 2019. Growing style takes actor than value style, expression is best is medium dish grow, first quarter yield 19.6% . Performance is the poorest is style of big pannikin value, yield is 11.9% . Low of financial crisis market rises, expression is best also is medium dish grow, yield 499.3% .
This piece of graph recounted the industry weight of mark general and historical performance below. 3 mark general weight is the greatest board piece it is service of science and technology, medical treatment, finance respectively, hold weight for 21.2% , 14.6% with 12.7% . 2019 first quarter, US stock expression is best board piece it is science and technology, rise 19.9% , it is estate next, rise 17.5% , industry rises 17.2% .
25 years of US stocks are all in the past of the industry year change yield, expression is best is medical treatment service, year change yield 12.8% , it is science and technology next, year change yield 12.3% ; Optional and choose consumable surely year change yield about the same, it is 10.5% . Mark general of 500 indexes year changed yield to achieve 9.8% breathtaking.
Arrived 1980 today mark general yield and in year the biggest drop. Look from the angle of the US stock, if use a strategy to be in only each years,buy, it seems that special make money. General of 39 years of mark is average in the past in year the biggest drop achieved 13.9% , but having 29 years of indexes finally is to obtain of accrual. Of course, 2018 actually US stock index was to drop 6% , the oldest index falls in year for 20% . The US stock rose first quarter 2019 13% .
Next graphs are American past a few economic depression, and of the stock market that its correspondence reachs drop. The great depression 1929 does not include inside. The average range that every time market adjusts is 30% , the average range of economic depression is - the GDP of 1.9% . Purify great depression, the tenacity of American economy is very strong, the range of every time economic depression is not big. Was October 2007 substantially most to March 2009, economic depression 4% , stock market was adjusted 57% . A lot of economic depression are in 2% less than.
This piece of graph does not need much explanation below, invest even if saw long-term country carry. After whole World War II ends, the United States greeted long-term country movement, the direction with long-term stock market is concussion up!
This piece of graph is very notable, cycle of dilate of economy of this round of United States reached 117 breathtaking months, broke away from the law that all is worth regression and gravity it seems that. Continue again dilate goes down, will break 80 time one round that the time that economic dilate cycle lasts. And that round of backside has fluidity to last comfortable, a few big setting such as infantile tide and technical revolution are driven.
This piece of graph is 70 time of American below already GDP is added fast. Four quarters GDP grew 3% compared to the same period 2018, annulus comparing grows 2.2% . In the composition of American GDP, 68% come from at consumption, 17.1% come from at paying defray, the 14.2% investment that come from Yu Fei building, 3.8% come from estate, commerce is lost to contribution 3.2% .
The balance sheet of US stock consumer, asset end exceeded indebted end far. Total assets reached 12 billion dollar. Among them annuities is occupied than 21% , the house is occupied than 24% , other finance capital is occupied than 40% , deposit is occupied than having 9% only.
Population is long-term economy in increasing power, the mainest component. The growth of American mouth will put delay substantially, prospective mainland population grows scarcely, need relies on immigrant. And go 20 years, labor efficiency promotion is occupied mediumly in economic growth than taller and taller.
End in Feburary 2019, american unemployment rate had glided 3.8% , it is 70 time first since lowermost unemployment rate. Considerably under 6.1% the history is average. And growth of American wage income was achieved 3.5% , return small at present under the history average level. Enter nevertheless since 2000, growth of American wage income is very slow, rear globalization brings the element that efficiency of division of labor promotes.
This piece of graph does not become too much explanation, educational level is higher, unemployment rate is lower, have salary on average taller also.
The core inflation that this piece of graph shows the United States below is maintained for a long time also low. End in Feburary 2019, rate of American CPI inflation is 2.2% , core inflation is led 2.1% , under 50 years of average 4% levels. Among them the inflationary rate of food has 1.5% only. The friend that if go,lives, it is very cheap to also can discover those who eat to the United States is bought actually, the price was done not have more so in the past how had risen.
Because horizontal range estimation of inflation can be maintained for a long time,be in low, now American market to beautiful couplet store add the rhythm of breath, should compare beautiful couplet apparently store oneself look into should low. The market thinks beautiful couplet store met 2019 very slow add breath, beautiful couplet of and rather than store oneself say in that way. Beautiful couplet store add breath rhythm, also will produce crucial effect to market performance.
Of another crucial to generation of future of American stock market influence, it is the level of calm danger yield of course, namely 10 years period national debt yield will move toward He Fang. Buffett also is mentioned in newest interview, yield of American national debt may be maintained for a long time in very low level.
Yield of respecting national debt, must carry the length with afraid last year market to carry interest rate and short end interest rate appears to hang. Look on the history, each subaltern carries interest rate and short end after interest rate appears to hang, can produce economic depression. Hang mean, long-term economy growth anticipates glide, but short-term inflation and capital cost rise. Nevertheless, after interest rate is hanged, be not produce economic depression immediately. From in the past 50 old histories look, after be being hanged average the decline that 14 months just produce economy.
This piece of picture is very fundamental, although the balance sheet is contracting, but the extent slow down that global Central Bank tightens up fluidity, and the likelihood enters future release fluidity afresh, the process of outspread balance sheet!
2019 the expression of global capital market. Mark general rises 13.6% , the stock market beyond global United States rises 10.4% , china rises 17.7% , rising market country rises 10% . Basically 2019 is a global bovine city environment. This and more similar 2017.
2018 and 2019, affecting the factor with the mainest wave motion of global stock market is appraise value wave motion, the wave motion of gain and main area is not actually big
2009 after financial crisis, of American stock market go sign is clear more ambitious than global stock market. The global stock market that deducts the United States goes up have 108% only, cannot compare completely with American photograph. The competition ability difference between the United States and other country is in pull big.
Enter 2019, chinese economy also appeared afresh fluidity is comfortable, finance stimulation is being increased.
Go 20 years of of all kinds asset year change yield, 500 indexes are mark general 5.6% . In all asset, the asset with the poorest performance is called " medicinal powder door " . . .
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