Editor's note: Hardship just shows Yong Yi, go through the mill only then get kindly help secure the success of something. 2020 is a year of extremely rough every, below the concussion of new coronal epidemic situation, all trades and professions for a time shutdown stop production, economy is atrophic first quarter 6.8% . Also be to be in this year however, prevent in strong epidemic situation accuse measure to fall, progress of Chinese economy society fetchs significant gain, decisive battle takes off deficient assault fortified positions to gain decisive victory, growth of 2 quarters economy is rapid " time " achieve 3.2% , add obtain employment target newly to be finished ahead of schedule above quota, "935 " receive an official satisfactorily, "Double loop " new development pattern accelerates compose to build, the powerful tenacity of Chinese economy is revealed undoubted.
Look into 2021, as " 945 " leave of the bureau year, also be our country modernization a year when special value has in the process. What new trend, new development can Chinese economy have one this year again? Chinese net finance and economics is rolled out " look into 2021 China economy " series plan.
Chinese net finance and economics on January 15 dispatch (first sun rays in the morning of king of Shuai Shuai of free of reporter Zhu He) just go 2020, a year extremely rough every is a lot of industries to. Regard China as main component of economy, real-estate industry ever also got in the beginning of the year the severe impact of epidemic situation, but subsequently powerful get warm again after a cold spell, exceed the market to anticipate ceaselessly. Review 2020, the policy with what great, far-reaching meaning does building city have? Look into 2021, is building city policy moved toward how? What change will building city produce, what kind of appearance to present? Chinese net finance and economics covers many expert learned man, solve for you one by one.
Review 2020: Stop drop driving building city has behaved motivation of get warm again after a cold spell at anticipating
2020 the beginning of the year, chinese building city gets the severe impact of new coronal epidemic situation, each index ever glided in the round, data of national statistic bureau shows, 2020 1-2 month, area of sale of countrywide commodity house drops compared to the same period 39.9% , sale drops compared to the same period 35.9% , estate development investment drops compared to the same period 16.3% ...
The effective control of profit from epidemic situation, chinese economy shows a powerful tenacity again, building city also subsequently rapid get warm again after a cold spell. In the meantime, much ground returns in former days hot phenomenon, be born " epic level land is patted " " 10 thousand people shake date " occasion waiting for a name, also confirm what building city anabiosises is driving. corresponding, building city policy also from the beginning of the year strand with Shu give priority to change to be the adjusting control after anabiosising to upgrade. This year, a lot of policy make a person impressive, also lift in building city blast a billows.
"Review the building city 2020, I think ' 3 red line ' it is one of policy with the greatest sense, still have an invisible policy -- the relaxation that opens to booking licence, building of each district high end dish trade circumstance get warm again after a cold spell anabiosises and these buildings dish be being supplied actively have particular concern. " Yan Yue of chief inspector of research of wisdom warehouse center enters easy house academy to express when accepting Chinese net finance and economics to interview.
In August 2020, live build ministry, Central Bank to hold informal discussion of key estate company, formed capital of key estate company to monitor administer regulation with financing, say for place of severe leap forward namely " 3 red line " : Eliminate of room look forward to beforehand indebted rate must not be more than the asset after gathering 70% ; The net indebted rate of room look forward to must not is more than 100% ; Of room look forward to " cash short debt is compared " be less than 1. Room look forward to once " step on the line " , cannot increase or need to father accuse to have breath is indebted dimensions.
As we have learned, house of our country commodity is opened to booking implement permissive system, development company undertakes commodity house open to booking, ought to apply for to open to booking a license to estate management department, obtain commodity house to open to booking licence. Did not obtain commodity house to open to booking licence, must not undertake commodity house open to booking. Last year first half of the year, to alleviate epidemic situation is opposite the concussion of estate market, the much ground such as Beijing, Yunnan opened to booking a condition to undertake optimize and relaxing to commodity house.
"It is situation, good that deep V goes at anticipating, a person of extraordinary powers rises abruptly curtilage. " severe leap forward sums up the countrywide building city 2020 with 3 words, he points out: "Deep V goes situation it is this year market of the estate below epidemic situation concussion drops and the report of situation of get warm again after a cold spell, and also show a market to rebound motive force is powerful; Good at anticipating it is to say a lot of month trade this year the case is good, especially the market of similar 6-8 month is off-season, have better performance; A person of extraordinary powers rises abruptly curtilage is to say, of high-end demand release one of characteristics that make current estate market already actively. Of high-end demand release one of characteristics that make current estate market already actively..
Graph source: Website of national statistic bureau
Chinese net finance and economics notices, data of national statistic bureau shows, before 2020 in November, countrywide commodity house sells an area one billion five hundred and eight million three hundred and forty thousand square metre, grow 1.3% compared to the same period, implementation becomes a full member first inside year, development of commodity house sale, estate invests two data synchronous also pick up, from the point of annual data, go situation appear " deep V form " .
In addition, under epidemic situation, achievement of room look forward to goes against the raise on situation. Statistical data shows Ke Errui, 2020, accumulative total of look forward to of 100 strong rooms realizes full requirements to sell amount thirteen thousand and forty-six billion one hundred and eighty million yuan, grow 12.4% compared to the same period, outclass 6.5% 2019.
Ke Errui analysis points out, go from annual outstanding achievement in light of situation, industry sale gets epidemic situation first quarter the effect is most distinct. 2 quarters market restores stage by stage, the only month outstanding achievement of look forward to of 100 strong rooms will become a full member in April compared to the same period and promote steadily. Second half of the year, after room look forward to offers goods and sale rhythm, move, supply promotes significantly.
Look into 2021: "The house lives to be not fried " makings general lasts or carry " activation is reasonable housing is consumed " policy
December 2020, conference of central economy job reiterates " the house lives to be not fried " , put forward adjust measures to local conditions, much plan to develop simultaneously, stimulative estate market makes the same score steady healthy progress; The last day 2020, real-estate loan spends administrative system horizontal stroke to be born for nothing centrally; Will give heat last year in August " 3 red line " also carry out in the round this year... so, this year the policy fundamental key of building city how? Can adjusting control act deny continuance?
Chief researcher Zhang Yan gives birth to center of communication of China International economy predict, building city still will hold to the lasting effect mechanism of estate adjusting control this year, hold to " the house lives to be not fried " concept.
"Close the macroscopical policy orientaton at estate market this year, between the financial attribute that if why handle good estate,will pay close attention to mainly, commodity attribute and social attribute harmonious drive, according to lasting effect mechanism, those who maintain estate market is smooth move. " Zhang Yan is born when accepting Chinese net finance and economics to interview to express.
On December 31, 2020, the silver-colored meeting that keep watch releases Chinese people bank, China " the announcement that borrows money to spend administrative system centrally about building estate of banking finance orgnaization " . " announcement " to estate remaining sum of loan remaining sum and individual housing loan is divided have classified government for 5 archives, installed remaining sum of real-estate industry loan to occupy occupy than upper limit and remaining sum of individual housing loan than upper limit. Real-estate loan remaining sum basically develops a business in the light of estate, remaining sum of individual housing loan basically is aimed at the loan buying a house of the person that buy a house. Common ground is told, loan new rule aims to restrict a bank loan is excessive enter real-estate industry.
About this year the policy wind direction of building city, in south Pan Helin of executive dean of academy of economy of number of university of politics and law of finance and economics, professor thinks likewise " the house lives to be not fried " will last. "Estate market will still carry policy of a few high pressure this year, those who include estate go lever, the real-estate loan that if the Central Bank, silver keeps watch,can issue runs a system centrally. " he expresses when accepting Chinese net finance and economics to interview.
Pan Helin thinks, below very difficult 2020 situation, did not stimulate economy with estate, because this can say, do not stimulate economy to had become orientaton of a basic policy with estate.
Severe leap forward thinks, the policy respect that each district consumes in activation this year, or can allude technically " activation is reasonable housing is consumed " content. "Include before this bank city peace pool two ground, alluded technically in stimulative spending side the content that estate consumes. So probably each district consumes a respect in stimulation this year, also can allude estate consumption, after all estate is consumed compared with other very much industry, the position wants taller, the impact that drive is bigger also. The impact that drive is bigger also..
In addition, yan Yue receives a proposal, look from governmental angle, should seize good estate two lines. The first is the principal property that should let estate become stable investment and consumption, stabilize development namely. The 2nd should be on guard namely estate becomes grey rhinoceros, need to tighten up financial policy namely. And from room look forward to for, the key should be on guard namely " 3 red line " bring concussion, need is made actively adjust. Look from the angle of the person that buy a house, it is OK to still view policy a bit more loose, or house price falls a bit.
Notable is, pan Helin mentions: "Building city overall trend won't rise to fall greatly greatly, the country matures quite to the superintendency of estate market now. But at the same time, at present heavy goods price is rising, still want the impulse that vigilant house price rises, be in especially city of line of just a little. Be in especially city of line of just a little..
(Responsibility edits: Zhang Qianrong)
