Arrive from panic greedy, orgiastic later, when does global stock market die dish?

At the beginning of 2020, a drop 1000 times stop, US stock fusing, european Japan steeps fall, global capital market a panic. But after one pass today, "Panicky " already complete by " greedy " replace. The stock market innovates ceaselessly tall, bit money breaks through 40 thousand U.S. dollor.

From 2020 up to now, world economy big slowdown, each country in succession exert imprint Qian Dazhao. There already were more than 50 Central Banks to lower interest inside global limits, the economic system interest rate of more than 60% is less than 1% , partial area and country enter negative interest rate.

According to the data that studies according to Peng rich economy, beautiful couplet store, Japanese Central Bank, Europe Central Bank and light of British Central Bank are to was in 2020 quantify loose policy to went up to invest 5.6 trillion dollar.

Borrow money to always want to return.

Everybody is worrying about a problem now: When does liquidation come? With why be being planted does means come? When does the market die dish?

Looked a few days ago " big short seller " , have a bit pretty interesting. And crisis photograph was compared 2008, at that time is to discover the person of the risk is little, now is everybody knows bubble has been blown, but know to meet without the person how terminative.

Everybody is be pleasant to the eye to be done for nothing in doubt much, now has alcoholic drink now is drunk, pushing the stock market taller and taller.

The whole world is staring at beautiful couplet store, after discussing news conference of December to end, beautiful couplet store many official mentions the cut dimensions that buy debt, fine hair on the human body sets upright everybody continuously.

" wall street daily " daily reporter guards a pass at cut buy debt each word inside that word examines minutely, what meaning is explanation of the person that let make a speech after all?

When does American monetary policy change direction? Change direction 5, after 6 take second place, it is market be issued to lower levels when. I believe, after Paul Wo Erke, without beautiful couplet store the chairman has courage so dry.

The whole world turns on the water greatly beautiful couplet store dare not close faucet

Up to in December 2020, beautiful couplet store the balance sheet reachs record-breaking 7.4 trillion dollar, left and right sides of 4 trillion dollar is before epidemic situation.

In June after the middle ten days of a month, beautiful couplet store the dimensions of the balance sheet is contractive, from highest 7.169 trillion dollar fell to restrain 248 billion dollar.

Steven Zeng of analyst of heart volition bank thinks, this report gives epidemic situation to tightened urgent fluidity tool to be exited gradually, did not reflect structural sex change. As quantify comfortable with other loan tool carry out, beautiful couplet store balance sheet dimensions can be climbed again to the end of the year rise to be controlled to 8.3 trillion dollar, for double at the beginning of 2020.

Somebody can feel, this is a very huge amount, increase a space without what.

Not highest, only taller.

Actually, compare European Central Bank and Japanese Central Bank, beautiful couplet store the proportion that balance sheet dimensions holds GDP is smaller still. If beautiful couplet store the level that balance sheet dimensions holds the scale of GDP to achieve European Central Bank and Japanese Central Bank really, that beauty couplet store the balance sheet is met respectively now is 11 trillion dollar is mixed 25 trillion dollar.

As beautiful couplet store fall interest rate to 0, and hold a memorial ceremony for gives infinite quantity QE, about American economy gradually " Japanize " discuss increasing also.

What cries " Japanize " ? Namely " 3 low 3 tall " coexist: Low interest rate, low inflation, low growth, Gao Fuli, fast money, high debt. The analysis says, in future 10 years longer even in, beautiful couplet store will continue to show with the balance sheet of other Central Bank erupt the gender grows.

Chief economist of United States of heart volition bank predicts, of American debt and GDP can exceed 100% 2020 than arriving, will be close to to 2030 140% .

Economist Chris Hamilton returned designed contrast to study the policy of 0 interest rate of the United States and Japan, he discovers, no matter what specific crisis is (leak of blessing island nucleus, 911, financial crisis) , the result that the crisis brings about is same: To stimulate economy, the Central Bank lowers interest rate considerably, debt is even more cheap, stimulate debt thereby volatile growth.

This is the profound influence of Friedman money theory.

The market predicts the end of the year is beautiful this year generally couplet store total assets is likely violent wind rises to 10 trillion dollar.

When is exciting policy exited?

After economic crisis, loose monetary policy exits above of 30 months after wanting generally to appear in economic base, the time lag that quantifies loose policy to exit is longer (be as long as 6 years) .

1980 " sluggish goes up " the crisis, 1990 store borrow the crisis and 2000 Internet bubble, beautiful couplet store after parting to appear in economic base the 30th, 34 just begin to add with 30 months breath, financial crisis began to make dosage changes loose policy 2007, just exit finally till September 2014.

Economic rehabilitate needs time.

Quantify loose policy short-term won't exit, comfortable fluidity environment can exist continuously. Below the circumstance that economy fails to anabiosis effectively, the Central Bank exits loose policy prematurely to be able to bring about economy to add fast once more fall after a rise and debt problem erupt.

Premature, radical exit loose policy consequence how? Debt crisis erupts.

2010 only then, economy has not cast off predicament, unemployment rate does not have apparent fall after a rise, but the step that Central Bank of global great majority and government begin to put delay economy to stimulate, for instance the United States exited QE the first round, QE of the 2nd phase ends the European Union, china is added breath tighten up monetary policy. Erupt till crisis of credence of dominion of 5 Europe debtor nation, europe Central Bank just rolled out new capital fund to assure in November 2011 bond buys a plan.

In December 2020, committee of federal open market (FOMC) expresses consistently, it proceed the asset of every months of 120 billion dollar is bought -- the American national debt of 80 billion dollar and the MBS of 40 billion dollar.

Realize sufficient obtain employment till the United States, price is stable, namely economy affirms anabiosis, beautiful couplet store policy just can be changed. But Bao power Er rejects to explain they will be referenced what index.

Bao power Er sends call the turn express after the meeting " inflation rises to still need a few time " , "Beautiful couplet store won't right temporarily rise in price make response " , "If systole buys debt dimensions, will shift to an earlier date very long issue a warning " .

From which in light of long-term perspective, chinese epicycle policy is exciting and opposite exercise restraint quite, this more the economy after be helpful for the crisis can grow continuously and RMB asset quality, attract long-term financing and rather than to heat up the afflux of money.

The whole world is in turn on the water, china is put less, be in again internationalization, capital is in flow into China.

High indebted stock market achieves Japan however piece new tall

Collapse dish won't come easily.

2021 on January 14, japan has two big news, because epidemic situation is sent high, announce to seal a country in the round, prohibit all foreigners enter a country. In the meantime, day innovates again via 225 indexes tall, day classics index is in ceaseless refresh after 1990 new tall. Epidemic situation has been forgotten by capital market.

March 2020, lowest of Japanese stock market drops, on January 14, 2021, highest come, go up 77% .

Does Japanese stock market have many previously miserable? Buffett once had said, won't buy Japanese company absolutely. But in Ba Fei's special in August 2020 Baikexier - company of haing Sa Wei (Berkshire Hathaway Inc. ) invested 5 Japan trading company. Bought Yi Teng products of company of faithful company, bolus red company, 3 water chestnut, Mitsui is mixed friendly company summary prep above the share of 5% , add up to 6 billion U.S. dollor.

Arrive from last year this year, bafeitetong issues yen bond too, divide in all second lent 625 billion yen from Japanese hand, be equivalent to 6 billion dollar controlling -- as it happens is cling to the fund that often buys these stock flowers. The time of these loan varies to 30 years from 5 years. Loan interest of 5 years has 0.17% only. And accrual of 30 years also has 1.1% only. The borrow or lend money that Buffett uses this kind of extremely low interest rate namely bought the share of these Japanese companies.

It is early a few years ago, buffett has said this thing, borrow money to buy the share of Japanese company, buffett still is syncretic of knowing and doing, consistent. Be in in the activity, somebody asks about Japanese stock market, buffett expresses Japan 10 years period loan interest is 1% , but Japanese company ROE is too low, manage redound of layer ignored company and small shareholder profit, he does not like. Money borrows to buy a share in Japan, exert tries hard 1% above are equal to gain empty glove white wolf. Although be in Japan to do not have investment temporarily, but want interest rate only all the time so low, he can search all the time.

In November 2020, japanese Central Bank holds a total value to already was climbed litre to 45.1 trillion yen (add up to 434 billion dollar) , exceed Japanese government provide for the aged to invest fund first (GPIF) , the person that become Japan's biggest stock hold.

Before white Chuanfangming is in president of Japanese Central Bank the earliest to put forward in October 2010, buy the Central Bank stock ETF monetization the one part of loose policy, dimensions is surely annual 450 billion yen. After this, as An Beijin of 3 quantify and change full plan to be advanced ceaselessly character, japanese Central Bank is right of ETF buy also more and more " infatuate " .

Now, central Bank of Japanese government, Japan is the bull with Japanese the biggest stock market.

This market, go to where argue. Is this what is commercialized? !

Turn on the water greatly where to go to without great inflation money?

Japanese insanity imprints paper money learns with American.

2002, still hold the position of a professor in Princeton university this - Bainake (Ben Bernanke) , connect the Japan that shrink in the light of deep-set at that time debt, put forward " helicopter spreads money " academic.

Bai Nake designed 3 kinds for Japan " spread money " plan. Carelessness is to make the Central Bank out of thin air, make money to the Ministry of finance directly.

What Bai Nake vows solemnly is right Japanese says, according to his theory, the connecting that agrees to be able to solve you quite surely shrinks problem, japanese type is connected for a long time shrink the environment won't appear in the United States absolutely.

But Japanese was afraid of by American hole, state I believe you a ghost, american guy is very bad.

Artful is, bai Nake was become unexpectedly later beautiful couplet store chairman!

2006, bai Nake replaces Gelinsipan (Alan Greenspan) take office as beautiful couplet store chairman.

September 2008, lei Man's brother closes down, american credit market freezes quickly, whole banking environment is immersed in connect quickly shrink trend.

Regard research as the expert of great depression, bainakeli started large-scale QE namely (quantify comfortable) , begin to carry out him in the United States " helicopter spreads money " academic, after the first round of QE ends, shrink to prevent debt to connect rebound, carried out the 2nd round again, the 3rd round of QE, till September 2014 " spread money " just stop.

So Bainake has a nickname -- " helicopter this (Helicopter Ben) " .

But today look back on, look absurd " helicopter spreads money " theory is right unexpectedly in practice, QE policy pulls the United States a century to be connected flatly greatly really shrink abyss, and did not cause inflation. The inflation of the United States and Europe fluctuates in the level of 2% , japan is lower.

Japan refuses at the beginning, but see American experiment pass, immediately follow-up.

Since 2001, japan is connected all the year round shrink to dare not imprint again money, saw the United States scatters money to do not have occurrence inflation 2013, begin follow the lead of.

A lot of people can ask, imprinted so much money, why to have great inflation?

It is monetary multiplicator is reduced, investment apiration decreases. Fundamental money is much, but if monetary multiplicator is mixed,current rate falls, so the money that derive comes out magnifies without geometric ratio exemple. This piece of graph can see below, japanese foundation money adds Su Yuanchao after 2010 current in monetary remaining sum.

2 it is major fund arrived asset end. These asset are in money of fixed assets investment, estate, bond, stock, bit, gold in recent years synchronism rises. Shortage of so called capital, germ consists cash too much. This one trend does not have terminative evidence.

The stock market goes up greatly, bit currency rises greatly, it is so be troubled by.

Current in the money is added fast add under fundamental money fast

Inflation is existence, just present inflation is carry in asset, and the object of the index statistic of CPI and so on is prices, look so the whole world does not have inflation.

Still be with Japan exemple.

Because home consumes stricture of market of insufficient, investment, labor productivity to drop, the fund that policy of Japanese comfortable finance and monetary policy give off is quite major deposit rises.

Province of Japanese general affairs was published on May 16, 2017 " findings report familying livelihood " , average savings ratio was as high as family of 2 people above 2016 18.2 million yen (be equivalent to a RMB 1.09 million) , the household of 60 years old of above is average deposit forehead is 23.85 million yen (be equivalent to a RMB 1.43 million yuan) .

Negotiable securities of Japanese luck spic is forecasted, financing of gold of 11 trillion dollar produces hold of add up to of Japanese old people, banks of these asset consist in, bond, stock and fiducial in waiting for financial product, is not the objective asset such as land, estate. 2017 Japanese total debt 9 trillion dollar, 90% above hold is in Japanese countryman hand. Number of guarantee slip of Japanese average per capita achieves 4, it is the nation with top amount of guarantee slip of the average per capita on the world.

Where did money go? Investment, put money, buy insurance.

And, turn into from objective asset gradually financial capital. There is a statistic recently, say as infantile tide generation person often goes, this trend will be clearer and clearer, because the baby is wet,then acting person favores objective asset.

Why incidental before inflation, because financial system is done not have so develop, do not have without so much finance property, reservoir so much. We produced the thing that bit money breaks through an imagination this kind even now.

Evolution of credit money times arrives now, in the Central Bank and governmental key point, the money is a tool only, to reach oneself policy goal, everything is all possible, what finance changes is more and more complex.

If the whole world does not have great technical progress, without new growth engine, in the future that can foreknow, of Japan the future that now is the world probably.

Next, capital currency market will be more and more thriving, of exciting policy exit after also wanting the latest to be in two years, but the adjustment of the stock market is led probably can come ahead of schedule. The issue that another needs to worry is the debt of low income country.

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