Article author: Jin Xinyi.
The article has editor and cutout to decrease.
1
An obvious fact is:
Each area goes after Shenzhen desperately lofty those who go up " area of business affairs center " (CBD) , think this talent is enough class, just be the urban image of internationalization, think fixed position is regional service center, think this ability is industrial transition upgrades.
The result is, a lot of M1 use the land with ground instead MO, the lid had office building. This also is supply of Shenzhen office building at the same time in the past one of apparently superfluous reasons in a few years.
Note: M1 (a kind of industrial land also weighs common industrial land, mix to living communal environment is basic the industrial land of jam-free, pollution and safe hidden trouble. )
M0 (new-style industry uses the land) , namely alleged " labour changes M0 " .
Shenzhen is a whole world most CBD is had inside limits (area of central business affairs) city, besides original Luo Hu Cai Wu surrounds CBD, blessing cropland CBD besides, built again in recent years south of hill hind CBD of the sea before sea CBD is mixed, in addition still be in Shenzhen of plan and construction the bay is super headquarters base (" exceed greatly always " ) CBD.
Besides these a few large CBD, each areas also have Shenzhen outside Shanghaiguan to plan and build his CBD, for example of Long Hua " area of center of business affairs of Shenzhen north station " the Sha Hu CBD of hill of the CBD of phoenix new city that the meeting of CBD of CBD, great fortune new city, Baoan exhibits new city, ocean new city, light, level ground.
2020, of office building of Shenzhen first class put a quantity to already was broken through 10 million smooth rice, rate of office building empty buy is 25% (the 3rd quarter ever was as high as 29.7% ) .
This is towns of 4 big a gleam of hollow buy rate is top, hire annual drops 12.8% , also be 4 big a gleam of fall in the city the biggest.
According to the data by 2019, empty buy leads office building of Beijing first class 13.5% ;
Shanghai is twelve million five hundred and thirty-one thousand smooth rice, empty buy rate is 19.7% ;
Guangzhou is 5.24 million smooth rice, empty buy is led 4.8% .
Count in the future that can foreknow inside year, as a result of before the sea, hind thalassic (exceed greatly always) , area of Shenzhen north station still is met many office building enters town, at the appointed time of Shenzhen put a quantity to will exceed two city of Beijing and Shanghai greatly. Only 2021, occupy Dai Deliang to be forecasted all right, office building of Shenzhen first class will increase supply newly 1.79 million smooth rice.
2
M0 uses the addition of the ground, decrease with respect to what mean industrial land almost at the same time, this also let Shenzhen industry move toward secondhand glide.
Let us look to be the same as the industrial land circumstance of level home town with Shenzhen:
The industrial land of Beijing makes an appointment with 600 square kilometer.
The control of industrial land total dimensions of Shanghai is in 550 kilometers.
The industrial land of Guangzhou city is 430 square kilometer about.
The industrial land of Shenzhen city is 272 square kilometer about. (2016 data)
2016, shenzhen government has issued statement. In ensuring long-term inside whole town industrial land total dimensions not under 270 square kilometer, occupy a city to build the proportion that use the land not under 30%
Shenzhen is final whether the industrial land that keeps 200 square kilometer, make a person suspect quite.
From the point of historical data, before 2005, shenzhen manufacturing industry is occupied than the raise on unilateral, from 1980 12% increase the peak value 2005 52% .
Begin from 2005, manufacturing industry is occupied than according to exceed on average annual the speed of a percent glides ceaselessly, reduce to 2019 36.6% , be close to cordon stage by stage 35% .
The country is versed in the Ceng Zhi in Li Yi of the minister that believe a ministry leads the ground to point out before, advanced country is in industrialized around, investment rate is in probably 35% the left and right sides, and Shenzhen has 12% only now, in the meantime, manufacturing industry investment holds total investment proportion for 17% , mix under industrialized country apparently urban level. "These two index are too low " .
That is to say, invest infrastructure desperately besides the government, and outside the estate investment of land agent, hypostatic economy especially manufacturing industry company is willing to invest Shenzhen no longer. This is fact of a dread to Shenzhen.
From the point of media coverage, the project of major settle Shenzhen.
Or is all sorts of headquarters projects
Headquarters of headquarters of division of big bay of HongKong and Macow of another name for Guangdong Province of east of headquarters of division of if byte is millet international headquarters, jumpy big bay, VIVO Shenzhen headquarters, happy letter headquarters, Beijing, Hua Na of guest of reopen after a cessation of business, be in harmony achieves China international of pharmacy of biology of headquarters of division of China of IOI of headquarters of big bay division, Malaysia, China, saying is headquarters, it is office building project actually
Or is alleged innovation platform.
If the country is high-powered,riverside of center of center of innovation of medical apparatus and instruments, innovation of Shenzhen of Xi Menzi the sources of energy, flying benefit innovates center, Sainuofeibaside the whole world current technology of center of innovation of first international vaccine, China examines detect attestation south.
Or is " research and development " category eye.
If Xi'an China big medical science drafts investment 1 billion big bay division is built in level ground hill " 3 centers, one platform " project, oily project of project of kingdom of figure of group of the culture that protect interest, 31 groups cloud. Substance of this category purpose still basically is reflected finally for office building.
Project of right high-tech manufacturing industry is disrelished slightly few and far between. What see from inside media coverage is only:
Taiwan attain base of production of support plate of semiconductor of vessel science and technology, Asilikang - research and development of vaccine of Kang Taixin coronal and manufacturing base project (always invest 500 million yuan) , science and technology of Hong Kong memory plans to invest 5.5 billion yuan of investment to establish chip to seal measure reach server, and include to get beneficial wisdom to build add newly 10 billion produce can project, biyadi 5 billion produce can the project.
In projects of these manufacturing industry of science and technology, it is for the most part grow in deep investment company or mainland originally the new hyperplasia of the enterprise that rise produces an item, the project of industry of great science and technology that truly new attract comes to (no matter endowment of inside and outside) terribly is scarce.
Should not say in that way major like tesla Shanghai super factory project more.
Not only such, estate interest group most a viewpoint of kill heart, launch attack to the industrial land of Shenzhen directly namely. Their logistic catenary is as follows:
1, because demand is too exuberant,the house price house of Shenzhen does not fall high is, and supply extremely insufficient, bring about demand exceeds supply badly;
2, the reason of residential product in short supply is the residence plans to be occupied mediumly in the space with the ground than too small;
3, the residence is occupied with the ground than too small, because industrial land plans to be occupied mediumly in urban space,be than too tall, this shows Shenzhen still grasps holding old old industrial thinking;
4, right way should be to reduce industrial land, its instead residence uses the land, increase the residence to use the ground and residential product supply.
A kind of viewpoint thinks:
"Exceed the city of ten million as population, the industrial structure of Shenzhen is infrequent inside alive bound limits. Industry occupied too much land natural resources, also affected Shenzhen to regard a center as urban position, base of its service line of business returns the level with due short of. " accordingly " in the long run, will current the industrial land red line of 30% falls to 20% " .
Still have doubt of a kind of viewpoint criterion:
"The original intention that keeps industrial land is good, but in light of the angle that plans from major, the scale of more than 30% is dye-in-the-wood industrial city, to Shenzhen, whether is this necessary? " this kind of viewpoint thinks, because want to keep industrial land, the project such as the residence of Shenzhen, elementary school, hospital must be transformed in the village in the city in arrange as far as possible, pull tall the cost of whole town.
Additionally one kind of viewpoint:
Deny from the angle of prospective industry Shenzhen withholds the effort of manufacturing industry: "Take production property in big city to remain a kind of industrialized thinking. Production part can be transferred from big city certainly, and certain not as far as big city be apart. The function of big city is not to make, create however, what the growth of Shenzhen relies on truly is many innovation industry " .
If believed their viewpoint really, large-scale cut down industrial land, increase the residence to use ground supply, so estate business people the rapture in understanding, come an orgiastic regale. As to after increasing the residence to furnish with the ground, whether does house price fall, I estimate what this bears the blame to they are won't right.
So the industrial land of Shenzhen is not too much, however too little, especially the industrial land of chunk is too little. As to the tall house price of Shenzhen, occupy with what industrial land or residence use the land more how old than doing not have relation.
Shenzhen wants to prevent urban decline, must be determined to squeeze estate bubble, make the economy of whole town and industry are returned move on a solid and credible base.
3
Why must protect manufacturing industry?
Because this is the crucial place of Shenzhen economy safety.
Its 1, hong Kong is in Shenzhen south.
The manufacturing industry of Hong Kong is after change of north of acting 1990 all, hong Kong economy turned real service into already aid, tertiary industy is occupied than exceeding 90% , a series of problems such as unemployment of sex of the low growth that this causes Hong Kong economy, structure, landed bubble.
Shenzhen GDP amounted to two thousand four hundred and twenty-two billion two hundred million yuan of RMBs 2018, exceed Hong Kong first (two thousand eight hundred and forty-five billion three hundred million HK dollar) . Research personage thinks transition of Hong Kong industry upgrades generally failure, "The industry is changed hollowly " cause a series of economic society problems. Perhaps see to the evaluation of Hong Kong economy see wisdom, but right for, have this Hong Kong animated lessons drawn from others' mistakes, you are theoretic say to get smallpox random compose, also won't be willing to weigh skip anyhow " the industry is changed hollowly " the track of an overturned cart.
Its 2, although be city of a gleam of together with Beijing, Shanghai, spic, but the safety factor of Shenzhen city position is far firm without these 3 cities.
Beijing serves as Chinese capital, can the resource of derive whole nation, ensure prosperous;
Shanghai regards shipping of economic capital of China and center of regius international banking, international as the center, national policy is puissant all the time add hold, even if is short-term be on the wane, the country still can be weighed energetically brace up;
Guangzhou regards Guangdong as the provincial capital of the province, the place that wants Guangdong to regard Chinese economy as big province only still is in, guangzhou need not worry about his urban position.
But Shenzhen differred completely.
Shenzhen has cities of 4 big a gleam of are mixed today economy one of centers of banking of sex of country of center of innovation of industry of new and high technology of the 3rd big city, China, 3 encyclopedias position, not be national regius result, the effort that relies on oneself however must come.
The enormous pressure that Shenzhen faces move and Shanghai competition in the whole nation (fall in a lot of circumstances, the country supports Shenzhen of Shanghai and rather than more) , in provincial facing the awkward situation that is squashed by Guangzhou again, if not be the vitality of Shenzhen too too exuberant, can have today's urban place far from. But the urban place that the country does not guarantee Shenzhen does not have anxiety forever.
The urban position of Shenzhen basically has two ticket now, one of centers of 3 national banking of the center of innovation science and technology of Asian class and China.
These two " part " why person give priority to why person for second? Without doubt, center of industry of innovation science and technology is more important to Shenzhen.
Before although be in early,acting 1990 metaphase develops property of new and high technology energetically, shenzhen has built innovation banking system of purpose (established Shenzhen stock exchange 1992) , and the innovation banking system of Shenzhen also has a help very for the development of Shenzhen high-tech industry, but of Shenzhen settle down and get on with one's pursuit it is industry of new and high technology certainly however originally, and the financial position of Shenzhen also the development of industry of hang on high-tech.
That is to say, shenzhen can rate city of 3 big a gleam of with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, because the innovation of science and technology of Shenzhen is caught early,be above all, catch well, become one of two big high-tech centers of as consistent as Beijing whole nation (Hangzhou and Shenzhen photograph are compared it is a promising young person) , get height affirms consequently.
The IT property total production value of Shenzhen goes 10 old in be located in countrywide city first place all the time, the contribution of industry of new and high technology to GDP leads Shenzhen, in the past stabilize all the time in 20 years between 30-40% , and financial industry is right of GDP contribution is nevertheless between 10-17% , its peak value has not exceed 17% .
And the development of Shenzhen banking industry, very old rate also industry of new and high technology grows profit from Shenzhen, serve through offerring innovation for it and achieve oneself progress.
The industry of new and high technology of if Shenzhen flourishs no longer, so OK and affirmative is, industry of course of study of popularity of content of airport of the finance that serves for industry of new and high technology and line of business of high-end productivity service, port, culture (comparative among them specific gravity is to presswork pack reach industrial design to wait) also be sure subsequently flat.
The industry of 4 big pillar of Shenzhen is new and high technology, finance, content shedding and culture industry, hind 3 rely on greatly the biggest, this is the fact that does not dispute.
Of Shenzhen city promote decline depend on of industry of new and high technology promote decline. The urban position of Shenzhen is earn because of development high-tech come, also be sure to be lost because of the be on the wane of high-tech industry.
4
Or someone says, the industrial transition of Shenzhen every time upgrades, its driving force is cost rises, compare a dominant position no longer, also be this such.
Although this Shenzhen loses manufacturing industry of science and technology, but the person that Shenzhen leads those who make the industrial revolution the 4th times, shenzhen transition is become wait for the new economy that is dominant with technology of net of couplet of IT of digital economy, new generation, content, AI, biology, marine industry, because of manufacturing industry of this science and technology losing is the price that should pay necessarily, GDP is added fast reducing is labor pains only just.
The problem is, these so-called new economy of Shenzhen, it is such as China is the head enterprise that should go up by catenary of original ICT industry, ZTE, Fuji health, Biyadi, Tecent, China is restful wait for those who go developing.
But, arrive high when the battalion trade cost of Shenzhen and life cost this is planted now when the degree, you look China for, the burgeoning industry such as net of couplet of the AI of the company such as Tecent, Biyadi, car, where is layout? Can they still be in Shenzhen layout?
Shenzhen is new and high the largest dominant position of technical industry is industrial catenary complete, among them especially the innovation capacity that hardware creates.
Of Shenzhen high-tech industry arisen, the biggest reason was to hang global innovation catenary (GIC) , as a result of the division of labor of global ICT industry, its hardware production part arrives from low end in stage of Han of day of Duan Zimei Europe transfers China, and Shenzhen because Fuji health introduce malic industry catenary, become this hardware to create one of main base of the system thereby, after that China for, resurgence communication, TCL, step by step the have the aid of such as tall department this industry patrol rises abruptly, accentuated this foundation of individual department, and make its from which low end be intent on personal advancement rises, be close to the driver's seat stage by stage.
This is the basis of the center, ICT industry chain that includes administrative division of Dongguan, benefit with Shenzhen, it is hardware is made. Mai Ken stannum call Shenzhen accordingly " the hardware innovation city of international class " -- " a product, arrive from research and development in Shenzhen the time that produces prototype to need 2-3 day only, and the time that needs 10-12 day to other integrated manufacturer. This efficient production environment as a result of Shenzhen, will produce vendor of business, data, spare parts supplier, and the connection with service close supplier is together. Will produce vendor of business, data, spare parts supplier, and the connection with service close supplier is together..
That is to say, shenzhen is so called " industry " , " manufacturing industry " , it is our traditional industry far from.
The tradition that one's early years carries on from Hong Kong is light industrial manufacturing industry is in early 2008 around, already fundamental change went Shenzhen. The manufacturing industry that Shenzhen leaves now, basically be high-tech manufacturing industry, give priority to with ICT industry catenary especially among them. This ability is the lifeline of Shenzhen. Can say, if Shenzhen the word of break the ranks of this industry catenary, shenzhen economy can be immersed in the ground of beyond redemption.
The innovation of so-called property, have two kinds of forms:
One kind is resemble malic smartphone overturn the gender innovates in that way, without foundation innovation gives huge demand, drive the prosperity of an industry; The advance gradually that is much batch of the small lot on the foundation in original industry catenary additionally innovates.
With respect to the innovation science and technology of Shenzhen, before be being had far from at present one kind overturns the condition that the gender innovates. Shenzhen is not in the top that global knowledge innovates, very difficult abrupt hair overturns showpiece revolutionary technology of the gender, can be to be on the foundation of existing industry catenary only, the technology that has little quick short steps innovates, from inside original industry catenary, grow gradually the new industry that gives future.
Because be narrated before this alleged " the function of big city is not to make, what the growth that creates Shenzhen however relies on truly is many innovation industry " viewpoint, be complete have not a leg to stand on.
The industrial catenary that the innovation industry of Shenzhen future must have from Shenzhen -- their itself was in what by creation generation comes out in the past namely in catenary of innovation of GIC whole world, and the main component that they are GIC now, prop up GIC future to be extended further, support new creation.
Area of deep Guan benefit already some ICT industry catenary, it is to make merely by no means, and making is creation originally impartible cut one share -- in grow, is not without foundation creation. And the ICT industry catenary that Shenzhen has this once break the ranks, lost the base of creation, prospective industry became water without a source, without this wood.
Whether does change reach the high-tech manufacturing industry of Shenzhen is Dongguan the most perfect plan?
That is to say, shenzhen does not preserve high-tech hardware manufacturing industry, and retain headquarters and function of research and development only, swing production link Dongguan, does this ability accord with the resource of economics to configure the rule?
This is the academic illusion of economist only.
The fact is:
Make when hardware arrive from Shenzhen change after Dongguan, link of research and development, among them major, cannot sever manufacturing link, so inevitable also meeting follows Dongguan, china be is a model, after its make link change Guan, what undertake subsequently is 4-5 personnel of 10 thousand research and development also change arrives Dongguan.
What Shenzhen wants to withhold finally is alleged " create " function, after doing not have branch of research and development, after leaving headquarters function only, can you still have " creation " ? China be is a case not just absolutely, represent a trend however. Did not have hardware to make when Shenzhen, shenzhen also can be done not have for certain " creation " . Leave the town of headquarters function only, this still does not cry " the industry is changed hollowly " , what to call?
Should make, change of research and development goes Shenzhen, the GDP of Shenzhen is sure to suffer serious blow. Economist need not be in charge of these GDP arise from Shenzhen, still arise from Dongguan, but have to be in charge of these however as Shenzhen.
Perhaps say, the one part that economist can think Dongguan itself is Shenzhen -- already was in now at least political the one part that is thought Shenzhen city is encircled truly -- but in the administration system that is in China, dongguan is the town of level of a ground that leaves administer by Guangdong province, it not by Shenzhen city administration administer, in all sorts of business accounting and evaluation system, of Dongguan is not Shenzhen, dongguan city also is not the one part of Shenzhen city.
And, what we cannot deny is, visit the Dongguan town that leaves administer as Guangdong, come up constitutionally from its say, also be a principal part that has competitive concern with Shenzhen. GDP and taxation are in two city of deep, Guan the cut between, inevitable also meeting brings about the frosty contention between two city.
The GDP of if Shenzhen decreased, and the GDP of Dongguan increased, this can not reduce the fortune of Shenzhen city and economic right.
If the development of the GDP of Dongguan city or economy, industry exceeded Shenzhen, the garden after Dongguan city also can say like Hangzhou Shanghai is it certainly in that way, the garden after also saying like Zhongshan Zhuhai is it in that way, the garden after saying Shenzhen is of Dongguan.
5
The individual thinks, shenzhen must begin following saving oneself to act:
Its 1, fall house price, fall battalion trade cost of the city, life cost thereby. Perhaps say, fall the house price of the 3rd layer at least.
Its 2, still should ensure adamantinely industrial land. No matter be governmental pilot,use the land, still be pilot of aborigines joint-stock company uses the land. How much is can be being withheld, do not want to be dropped by estate business nibble. On this foundation, make industrial land true produce its effect.
Its 3, improve industrial level of management, with the level of capital attraction. " strong catenary " , " filling catenary " the plan falls to real point. In 40 years of time before 2019, 20 years this after entering this century especially, shenzhen is all the time by action business, the urban district never has thought of Shenzhen still needs to enrol business. Need to enrol business when Shenzhen now when, the level enrolling business that just discovers oneself is in laggard status actually in the whole nation. Level of rapid promotion capital attraction is Shenzhen the urgent affairs of each area.
Its 4, the battalion business environment of Shenzhen is in now country is very not answer be in banner level. Cannot again self-satisfied. Shenzhen needs to blow bone cure poison.
