The online media of two meeting eve of 2020 whole nations is communicated on the meeting, committee member of countrywide the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, liu Yong of president of new hope group is good express: Pig price of future cannot go up to the sky, want to realize pork freedom. Liu Yong is good still brought him to be a draft resolution of two meetings preparation, the development after including deficient assault fortified positions, epidemic disease, 3 farming the many sided such as the problem. Speak of the question that raises a pig he expresses, oneself have a proposal, the proposal builds live pig industry to develop mother fund in national level, issue special national debt. Of hope future raise a pig be in high in the clouds, pig price cannot go up to the sky, want to realize pork freedom.
Civilian it is a day in order to feed. China is the big country that pork gives priority to carnivorous all along. The wave motion of pork price, hog cycle also is the barometer of socioeconomy all the time. Pork " price hurts city high, valence cheap is hurt farming " undoubted, the stability of pork price, it is the one link with influence society important the people's livelihood. China regards the whole world as country of production of the biggest hog, pork consumption country, quantity giving column and consumption take the whole world 50% above, market dimensions is close 2 trillion, market prise of Yuan Chaomao stage. Long-term since, industry of our country live pig gets " the pig is periodic " worry, price wave motion is bigger and frequent.
Today, mu Hua of Liu of vice-chancellor of agriculture of committee member of countrywide the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Jiangxi is in suffer when visitting, express, hog cycle is very old to social influence. He thinks, the element that causes hog cycle has many sides. The information that is the both sides of supply and demand that current home breeds an industry firstly is relatively opaque, it is biology safety reason secondly, it is traditional habit element thirdly. He suggests to establish hog futures, encourage more person research to give birth to pig breed aquatics, make information of supply and demand more transparent, be helpful for alleviating the pig is periodic. The near future, live pig price drops again and again 40 yuan / kilogram, return to normal price interval stage by stage. Pork price is the barometer of food basket of the people's livelihood. Last year after African swine fever, chinese government comes on stage to a series of policy give aid to and guide, chinese live pig is produced can have restored. At the beginning of this month, china purchased large sheet of 40 thousand tons of pork to the United States, the pork price that adjusts one round this also rose to adjust function. And the breed aquatics that enters in perch to those door for, should experience again new the labour pains of cycle of round of hog.
What law does hog cycle have? Generally speaking, the pig rises periodic method is: Pig price rises, breed occurrence profit, sow filling column increases, supply increase, the price begins fall after a rise. Drop periodic and ordinal analogize. On the history general 3~4 year form complete hog cycle.
Aquaculture of domestic live pig experienced hog cycle 3 rounds in all up to now from 2006, it is 2006~2010 respectively year, 2010~2015 year, and 2015 2018. Because environmental protection tears open change passivity to decrease,produced 2017 can, deficit of live pig slump in price was produced actively 2018 first half of the year can, passivity of swine fever of Africa of second half of the year falls into disuse produce can, pig price greeted the peerless big prices on antecedents history 2019, even look forward to of a lot of rooms, each capital investor is attracted come over to cross a bound to raise a pig. Everybody knows, ding Lei, ma Yun, liu Jiang east wait for Internet old man to be in live pig of layout live pig and industrial catenary, zhao Wei of bound of movie and TV and husband invest in Hong Kong industrial, march aquaculture.
Exceed strong " is the pig periodic " ended? As the fall after a rise of price of pork of countrywide much area, mean super- strong " is the pig periodic " ended? A lot of person that do poineering work, investor passes in epidemic situation hind, cycle of the hog after attention invests an opportunity. Because oneself had invested pig farm breed aquatics, today 3 farming heat live pig breeds topic and everybody to be shared, the hope is helpful to breeding a place.
Price of near future pork falls, besides element of porky of entrance United States, basically suffer effect of the following elements: 1, the inhibition that tall pig price consumes to pork, customer changes the price to more favourable birds flesh; 2, the pork consumption that was a tradition in May is off-season, temperature is elevatory, the dweller consumes porky desire to drop somewhat; 3, before paragraph time pig price drops range is bigger, breed an occurrence undersell behavior. So, since 2019 super- strong " is the pig periodic " ended at this point? According to data of agricultural country ministry, amount of livestock on hand of can numerous sow first annulus appeared in October 2019 than becoming a full member portion, produce according to can numerous sow can conduct cycle computative, live pig supply increases theoretic will appear in August 2020 portion, before August, pork supply will still is in drop passageway. Apparent, the confidence suffer a setback that the city after end is right breeds after pig price goes low again and again is serious, breed a concentration to give column, the demand before be being added carries whole to grow as before lack of power, short-term inside supply what amplitude is more than demand to restore rate.
Why should push hog futures? The hog futures with the earliest whole world is born at the United States, be in early 1964, chicago commerce bourse took the lead in rolling out " live cattle futures " , rolled out again later " vivid hog futures " . To 1969, development of Chicago commerce bourse makes the biggest pork on the world kind trade with domestic animals futures center, american hog futures helps countless farmer successfully evasive the risk that market spurt in prices steeps fall.
In associate with " switchback type " " below the rule of hog cycle, chinese live pig breeds is all the time 3 farming heat problem. This year in April, card inspect can approve Dalian Commodity Exchange to begin hog futures to trade. Hog futures is our country is mark first times with live body futures breed, the live body of pig of 3 yuan of commodity outside be of mark of its complete a business transaction. The two meetings this year, the delegate will put forward to build hog futures to trade market system, undoubted, will accelerate hog futures to appear on the market trading process, benign to industry of our country live pig loop rises to urge action actively.
